Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

There once were two friends called High and Low
But ol' Stoploss whacked 'em above and below
The average pips maimed
Was down to timeframe
Know your scale and you'll steal the show
 
So I just realized I could reply directly in here which is helpful. I could never figure out the and options password (kept trying so hard to figure it out!) I tried things like “clock” “tick” “time” and other generic things I could think of. Anyways, I feel pretty confused. Are you guys talking about trading against other traders? I had another idea too. Is there some sort of cycle of blown accounts where patterns work and then gradually work less and less by changing? Am I thinking too much? Sometimes I have trouble even interpreting the patterns because I can’t put them into a pattern box that makes sense because it feels random at a certain point… but is that the case? Any help appreciated.
 
M4-1 said:
No..No..No

of course..being in the right place..at the right time..can make a big difference..in the overall picture of things it doesn't really matter..

eg..you turn on your big 4k monitor with all the lovely pictures lining up like a beautiful starry night..and you click your mouse..now..you are in

you are up $50 in a few seconds..then up €100..then €250..WOW..this is easy peasy :)

another minute passes and you are back to €200..those damn even numbers..$150..$100..$50..$0..-$50..-$100..-$150..-$200..-$250..shite..i better get out before I lose more..Out..now i feel better..no pressure..

i sit back and look..WTF..it has reversed again but now i am not in the right place at the right time..so i sit on my big fat arse and do nothing..but..MOAN !!!

Why Is The Obvious..Not So Obvious :)
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So you’re saying that the obvious is that it’s a person’s impatience that stops them from being profitable?
 
Sorry, still knocking my brain over this thread. I’ve been rereading it for months because I feel like there has got to be some value here. I wonder if the real value is I need to “think” and not become sheep. That is so hard because I even second guess myself all the time even when I’m potentially right. I have some ideas for how to trade what I see and not what I want to see. I have even made this work. Sadly, it seems like the market will change too fast for me to adapt. Maybe that is where experience comes in. I don’t know. Does being a contrarian mean trading against others or is the OP saying that I need to use different tools like something like point in figure which does not rely on time? If I do not backtest, how can I ever know? Backtesting software now days let’s me play in “real time”. If I go through it slowly enough, would this be more sensible? Is it really just using the right tools or is it using the wrong tools in the right way? The OP says to not think the same way as others do but other people (the herd) seem to believe in risk control which is actually a herd belief? But at the same time, the OP says that walking the path is different from knowing the path so maybe they were getting at the idea that we need to exercise control instead of just knowing that we need control? Is it even possible to get the anf options pdf password now? I can’t see the original chart images etc. I’ve come to deduce that TA (price action) does work (according to the OP) but other means of analysis do not seem to work. I tend to use candles… I can see what the charts are showing me what other traders are thinking…. Am I getting close?
 
NotTheExpert said:
...If I do not backtest, how can I ever know?...
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Backtest is pointless, because you are testing what happened in the past. That is NOT what is going to happen in the future. You should include a touch of FA to guide your decisions. Like this coming Wednesday with the CPI and Fed minutes being released. And Euro markets were closed today for Easter Monday. Hold onto your potatoes!
 
Overnight said:
Backtest is pointless, because you are testing what happened in the past. That is NOT what is going to happen in the future. You should include a touch of FA to guide your decisions. Like this coming Wednesday with the CPI and Fed minutes being released. And Euro markets were closed today for Easter Monday. Hold onto your potatoes!
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If you can’t accurately reproduce the same behavior that made you money in the past, then what is the point? Backtesting software allows you to replay in real time and you can see the historical events. If you can’t succeed in Backtesting, why would you possibly succeed in live?
 
nysestocks said:
Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

I have read thru some of the recent and distant posts in this section, and have come to the conclusion that; the obvious is not so obvious to many!

There appears to be a lot of textbook information being thrown around, especially in relation to position sizing and risk management.

What every trader has to realise, is that all the risk management and position sizing techniques in the world are of no use what so ever, unless the trader is aware of the obvious pre-requisite to trading any market.

It will be very interesting to see what answers the many traders come up with for the obvious, those with little and lots of experience alike!
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Does the obvious still occur? Also, can I get a hint for the anf options pdf?
 
NotTheExpert said:
If you can’t accurately reproduce the same behavior that made you money in the past, then what is the point? Backtesting software allows you to replay in real time and you can see the historical events. If you can’t succeed in Backtesting, why would you possibly succeed in live?
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Because the PAST is not the FUTURE! Oy!
 
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