Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[tyrion]

I wish this thread wasn't so misleading for new people especially. Let's get one thing straight, the "obvious" is not at all obvious, because if it was, everybody would know it. By definition, the word obvious means: "easily perceived or understood; clear, self-evident, or apparent". An example of an obvious thing is drawing a square and recognizing it is a square and not a triangle, because it is apparent it is a square and not a triangle.

I don't know what you call "obvious" but if it really was obvious it wouldn't take you many years to figure it out lol. So stop lying to yourself and everyone else that it is obvious. I think the correct term is "hidden in plain sight". Here is an example of that: you have a task to find all the doors in a building. There are 6 doors but you can only find 5 although you have searched for hours and counter 5 doors every single time. Well, you were not aware that the only bookshelf in the building is a secret door. It was there all the time in front of your eyes, but you didn't see it although you were looking at it. It was simply hidden in plain sight. I am very confident that the "obvious" they are talking about is something that you stare every day but cannot recognize, something that is hidden in plain sight and unless someone points it out to you, you will not recognize it. Once you see it, it may seem like it was obvious but it really wasn't. Your brain is simply playing games with you.

If the "obvious" has anything to do with manipulation, whales, the herd, stop hunting...let me tell you that all this is a reflection of something else which is much simpler. You need to get down to the most fundamental part, which is by nature extremely simple and very hard to figure out. This simple thing is in front of your eyes all the time when you stare at a chart. It only becomes obvious when it is pointed out to you or you figure it out on your own, hence why it is not obvious at all.

This extremely simple thing can be observed in a tennis match, launching a cannon ball, driving a car, flying a plane and of course in the market

And what is that? Everything that goes up, comes down? Or, nothing goes up or down forever?

Interesting is that this idea is somewhat contradictory with “trend with the trend”, so maybe better to “trade with the trend”, but not too much, and take profit early. How early? Earlier than you would like, and this may be still pretty late for an observer.

 

[trismes]

Everyone who trades the underlying trades with expectations of a trend - even retracements are of the assumption there’s a lower counter-trend. It’s the only way to make money trading directionally. That’s a given.
The reason this - the subject of the thread - is so hard is we live in a time of reductionism. It’s made science the success it is today but the same method has flaws applied to trading. Our minds are trained to distill to the smallest part not to see the whole.

 

[Vindago]

Trade with the trend, but what is a trend, what is the TF of it and how can it be recognized?

that's the question you need to give an answer to before you can effectively trade the trend

 

[tyrion]

Everyone who trades the underlying trades with expectations of a trend - even retracements are of the assumption there’s a lower counter-trend. It’s the only way to make money trading directionally. That’s a given.
The reason this - the subject of the thread - is so hard is we live in a time of reductionism. It’s made science the success it is today but the same method has flaws applied to trading. Our minds are trained to distill to the smallest part not to see the whole.

As above, so below.

 

[JohnnyBGoode]

I wish this thread wasn't so misleading for new people especially. Let's get one thing straight, the "obvious" is not at all obvious, because if it was, everybody would know it. By definition, the word obvious means: "easily perceived or understood; clear, self-evident, or apparent". An example of an obvious thing is drawing a square and recognizing it is a square and not a triangle, because it is apparent it is a square and not a triangle.

I don't know what you call "obvious" but if it really was obvious it wouldn't take you many years to figure it out lol. So stop lying to yourself and everyone else that it is obvious. I think the correct term is "hidden in plain sight". Here is an example of that: you have a task to find all the doors in a building. There are 6 doors but you can only find 5 although you have searched for hours and counter 5 doors every single time. Well, you were not aware that the only bookshelf in the building is a secret door. It was there all the time in front of your eyes, but you didn't see it although you were looking at it. It was simply hidden in plain sight. I am very confident that the "obvious" they are talking about is something that you stare every day but cannot recognize, something that is hidden in plain sight and unless someone points it out to you, you will not recognize it. Once you see it, it may seem like it was obvious but it really wasn't. Your brain is simply playing games with you.

If the "obvious" has anything to do with manipulation, whales, the herd, stop hunting...let me tell you that all this is a reflection of something else which is much simpler. You need to get down to the most fundamental part, which is by nature extremely simple and very hard to figure out. This simple thing is in front of your eyes all the time when you stare at a chart. It only becomes obvious when it is pointed out to you or you figure it out on your own, hence why it is not obvious at all.

This extremely simple thing can be observed in a tennis match, launching a cannon ball, driving a car, flying a plane and of course in the market

Outstanding move.

 

[Laissez Faire]

I am very confident that the "obvious" they are talking about is something that you stare every day but cannot recognize, something that is hidden in plain sight and unless someone points it out to you, you will not recognize it.

What makes you confident that there is something obvious to be known in this thread which will give you an advantage in trading?

I spent time going through most of this thread and I've never seen anything which suggests trading success from those who claims to know the obvious. Yet, people are still trying to solve the riddles of this thread instead of solving the markets.

 

[Vindago]

What makes you confident that there is something obvious to be known in this thread which will give you an advantage in trading?

I spent time going through most of this thread and I've never seen anything which suggests trading success from those who claims to know the obvious. Yet, people are still trying to solve the riddles of this thread instead of solving the markets.

The thing is that there is no holy grail provided in this thread, but, if not taken too seriously and too deep, this thread provide a path to a different way to approach trading from the mainstream (Technical and fundamental analysis) way that we all know is a bag of bullshit.

This in itself is already golden as it leads the trader (that does not go too deep into the attempt to decipher the "mystery" in the thread) to think for themselves instead of trying to find the answer in a book or a course. Than, if one become successful it is up to the one, as he gets the experience and the fortitude to understand how price moves and to do what needs to be done to bring the money home day in , day out.

 

[BTCkush]

What makes you confident that there is something obvious to be known in this thread which will give you an advantage in trading?

I never said that, read my post again. Every time I put the word "obvious" in quotations, I simply mean whatever the OP is talking about. I was very clear in my post that the "obvious" is not obvious at all. I also explained why it is not obvious so please read what i wrote again.

I don't know what they are talking about, nor do i care. I'm pretty sure they are talking about something else that is not the most fundamental aspect of the market, but a reflection of it. Someone mentioned the "obvious" has something to do with muppets or manipulation and right there I knew that this person is not aware of the more simple truth about the market.

I also stated that knowing whatever they call the "obvious" or whatever i call the most fundamental aspect of the market will not make you profitable. It will simply change the way you think about the market and change your approach to trading. After you figure how to apply this knowledge, only then this information will help you become profitable.

Also, knowing all of this will never make you profitable if you cant handle your emotions. In this case coding your system will be the only way you can make money with it.

 

[Laissez Faire]

The thing is that there is no holy grail provided in this thread, but, if not taken too seriously and too deep, this thread provide a path to a different way to approach trading from the mainstream (Technical and fundamental analysis) way that we all know is a bag of bullshit.

This in itself is already golden as it leads the trader (that does not go too deep into the attempt to decipher the "mystery" in the thread) to think for themselves instead of trying to find the answer in a book or a course. Than, if one become successful it is up to the one, as he gets the experience and the fortitude to understand how price moves and to do what needs to be done to bring the money home day in , day out.

Maybe.

It's also a possibillity that this thread is a big waste of time for so many.

It's interesting that a main theme of this thread is precisely along the lines of thinking for yourself and don't trusting the gurus, yet everyone seems to still be looking for some kind of answer or enlightenment here from yet another guru.

I never said that, read my post again. Every time I put the word "obvious" in quotations, I simply mean whatever the OP is talking about. I was very clear in my post that the "obvious" is not obvious at all. I also explained why it is not obvious so please read what i wrote again.

I don't know what they are talking about, nor do i care. I'm pretty sure they are talking about something else that is not the most fundamental aspect of the market, but a reflection of it. Someone mentioned the "obvious" has something to do with muppets or manipulation and right there I knew that this person is not aware of the more simple truth about the market.

I also stated that knowing whatever they call the "obvious" or whatever i call the most fundamental aspect of the market will not make you profitable. It will simply change the way you think about the market and change your approach to trading. After you figure how to apply this knowledge, only then this information will help you become profitable.

Also, knowing all of this will never make you profitable if you cant handle your emotions. In this case coding your system will be the only way you can make money with it.

You do however seem to think there is some truth contained in this thread which will make you a profitable trader.

That's the part I'm not convinced about as I haven't seen any proof of successful or very successful trading in this thread.

My suggestion is to attempt to solve the market instead of trying to solve the riddles in this thread.

 

[BTCkush]

I agree that this thread is mostly useless for most people. Those who claim to know the answer have rather hostile posts towards the people who dont know it and i really dont like that. Let me give you perhaps the best analogy of what the "obvious" is or what "my obvious" is.

Basically what you are looking for is why does the market behave the way it does. Once you know that, you will be able to position yourself on the profitable side more often than not.

Lets imagine it's a very sunny day without any clouds. One hour later it's a severe thunderstorm with heavy rain. Going from sunny weather to stormy weather is the same as going from an uptrend to a downtrend. The forces that cause the rain to fall are the same forces that cause price to collapse. Works the same if we are going from a downtrend to an uptrend. Hence why some say "as above, so below".

This basically means that an uptrend is literally the same as a downtrend, only with different polarity. Think in terms of events and probabilities and specifically conditional probability.

What do you wear when it's sunny? Maybe a tshirt, sunglasses, a hat, light clothing in general and in more extreme cases protective gear against the sun. What do you wear when it's raining? Maybe an umbrella, a pancho, a jacket since the temperature may be lower.

How do you know that the weather is changing from sunny to stormy? First you start seeing some clouds, then the clouds become more dense. Then they become darker, maybe you see a lightening. These are events, after each event you get a new (conditional) probability of whether it is more likely to start raining or not. Once the sun is completely out, you are probably gonna take your hat and sunglasses off. Once you start hearing thunder, you will probably want to be near an umbrella. Once it starts raining you use your umbrella until it stops raining.

That's the weather cycle and how we should approach it if we wanna stay comfortable in sunny and rainy weather. The same is true about the market.