Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[M4-1]

By the way, what is the "experts" way? What do they teach?

Is it just TA?

the usual crap of the day..today it is order flow and bid/ask volume analysis..hogwash..does nothing but keep you from looking at what you need to look at..which is exactly the way they want it..

why should things be any different today..to what they were like in the past..after all..it was 1598 when we were warned about..

"so many asses laden with books"

and boy was he right..a right bunch of dumb asses at that

 

[Laissez Faire]

btw..it has nothing to do with calling a level..or a trade..i was right this time..but only because i was willing to take on the risk..if i had been buying..like most were over the last week..then if i was trading with no stops i would still have been right..but there would have been some not so nice feelings along the way..plus..if i did not have enough capital..i was fucked..which is EXACTLY what happens most..

Well, all things equal you would have done way better if you started buying around the level you started shorting - accumulating your line as price went in your favor.

 

[Laissez Faire]

question..i have shown my complete new mtf setup.. explained what i am going to do..and yesterday..showed what i would have done if short term trading..

so..what is the main difference between you and me..if i am able to make some money..AS EXPLAINED..what is stopping you from doing it..if you are not doing it already ?

It's not clear to me exactly how you trade or should I say what triggers your entries and exits. But that's probably my fault only as I'm not yet up to speed on your posts. I'll see if I can get up to speed this weekend.

As for what's stopping someone who would actually know how to trade profitably, it could be lack of experience and a resulting lack of conviction. Add to that being undercapitalized and/or risking too much or actually risking money that can't be afforded to lose.

 

[Laissez Faire]

the usual crap of the day..today it is order flow and bid/ask volume analysis..hogwash..does nothing but keep you from looking at what you need to look at..which is exactly the way they want it..

Yes. I've noticed that about order flow being very much in vogue over the last few years as the next great thing. LOL. Even from the outset it never made any sense to me how orderflow would mean jack sh*t in an instrument like ES. Maybe in single stocks. Maybe...

However, I always reasoned that these 'experts' or so called gurus in the educational business were failed traders or just very smart salespeople selling spades to the gold diggers.

Not that they were keeping anyone from looking at what you need to look at as you suggests...

 

[Mysteron]

Well, all things equal you would have done way better if you started buying around the level you started shorting - accumulating your line as price went in your favor.

Or even wait until Jul 6th and open a short prior to the 10am (NY time) ISM Services PMI report, which according to the calendar that I look at was flagged as a high impact event https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar

On the other hand if the reported value had been >64 then price may well have shot up instead of down, and M3 might have had to wait longer.

 

[M4-1]

Or even wait until Jul 6th and open a short prior to the 10am (NY time) ISM Services PMI report, which according to the calendar that I look at was flagged as a high impact event https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar

On the other hand if the reported value had been >64 then price may well have shot up instead of down, and M3 might have had to wait longer.

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but i didn't have to wait very long at all..and yes..of course news matters..but as always..if you think that those at the top don't know what these news events are going to be..well.. enough said

 

[M4-1]

Well, all things equal you would have done way better if you started buying around the level you started shorting - accumulating your line as price went in your favor.

yes..but remember this exercise was to prove a point..in that..you can still make money by doing stupid trading.. once you don't risk too much and are capitalized enough..BUT.. one day you will get caught out..so..best to not even bother and just stick to the short term trading..which is less risky..but also less rewardable..

reward is always a function of risk..simple maths!

 

[M4-1]

Yes. I've noticed that about order flow being very much in vogue over the last few years as the next great thing. LOL. Even from the outset it never made any sense to me how orderflow would mean jack sh*t in an instrument like ES. Maybe in single stocks. Maybe...

However, I always reasoned that these 'experts' or so called gurus in the educational business were failed traders or just very smart salespeople selling spades to the gold diggers.

Not that they were keeping anyone from looking at what you need to look at as you suggests...

the ES open interest versus the daily traded volume speaks for itself.. you can spend hours gathering data to try and see what might be going on..but..the big question is always the "when".. so..why bother when you can have the "now" every single day..

ding dong..the merry song
the line do show..where price will go
when up above..like flying dove
do not go down..as might be clown

but when below..do not be slow
for start is best..not for the rest
those in the know..do know the show
the tick tock rhyme..with certain chime

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View attachment 262760

 

[Laissez Faire]

yes..but remember this exercise was to prove a point..in that..you can still make money by doing stupid trading.. once you don't risk too much and are capitalized enough..BUT.. one day you will get caught out..so..best to not even bother and just stick to the short term trading..which is less risky..but also less rewardable..

reward is always a function of risk..simple maths!

Yes. True. It only takes one really bad loss to either wipe out all profits or your entire account when what normally doesn't happen does happen (as it does once in a blue moon).

 

[M4-1]

no go area....