Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[M4-1]

Mow a nice little article which summarises all : the obvious and birds. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1457537/warren-buffett-investing-and-birds

GO

i actually had a bird in my hand 2 days ago

we feed about 30 hedge sparrows..4 collar neck doves..2 wagtails..6 to 8 starlings..2 robins..2 yellowtits..and and few more odd species on and off..and of course the black crow is always around!

the hedge sparrows are the regulars..as they nest in our hedge..2 days ago a black crow was trying to get his beak in under the cage feeder..a few hedge sparrows arrived..the black crow was annoyed he couldn't get at the food so he attacked a hedge sparrow and he lay on the ground..motionless..

i picked him up..got a cardboard box..put in a bit of food..put him in the garage for about 10 min..took out the box..opened it on the grass..and after about 5 sec off he flew..straight into the hedge !

we also feed 5 cats..2 dogs..and a few hedgehogs..

i prefer to feed the animals than give some money to stupid charities that rob some of the money..at least i know where my money is going

 

[M4-1]

Maybe it is because I studied biology, but I do not find what the cuckoo chick and the warbler do surprising, the instinct is a stereotyped behavior encoded in the genes and expressed (and selected over time) as any phenotype.

What is surprising is how we human generally think we do not have stereotyped behaviors (like our cousins, the animals) and are rational beings. If trading has taught me something, it is that we do respond to certain stimuli all in the same way, something that is artfully exploited by the algorithms that are behind big money trading.

Now, wouldn't be wonderful if we could do something about this?

understand the instinct and gene thing..but it is amazing how it actually develops over time..

i have no doubt there are many other "wonders" !

in relation to trading and making some money..well..i i have detailed how the MES is currently offering the ability to place many low risk trades..if there are other markets out there that do the same..so what..all i need is one

the only thing that some readers do not understand is "the best way to interpret the price data"

this of course..is the hard bit..but..it is so easy when you work it out..that..you will wonder why you wasted so many years and so much money listening to a bunch of fuckin dim wits..talking out their arses

also..if you think you will win every trade..then you are still an idiot..remember..i once had 80 winners in a row trading options..but..i had not "arrived" at that point in time..

i notice that no one has answered the important question yet..funny how the important questions get ignored

 

[Vindago]

What I can say is that different birds sing different songs, but somehow all the songs seems to merge into a symphony and that can be confusing. However, once you learn to hear the songs as single entities and as a symphony at the same time, than you will be surprised by the possibilities...

 

[M4-1]

if you ever wondered why you feel the way you do when trading.....

 

[Vindago]

Illuminating! and scary!
Though my problem comes more from the opposite side of the spectrum: Trauma.
I have been through the meatgrinder of losing significant amount of money several times, I had reached a point where I could see the trade setup developing and did nothing but observing a very good trade go by with me on the sidelines.

Now I have been retraining myself to trade for quite some time and things are looking better everyday, especially since I now have way more understanding about how to read a chart and what I need to do once the trade is entered, whether it goes according to plans or doesn't.
I still come short more often than I would like by exiting the trade way before it is completed and miss a substantial part of the move. It is frustrating but I do not stress to much about it as I have come to understand that retraining ones brain takes time.

 

[Pelt]

The goal seems to be to make more than you lose.

Question for the fellow plebs...

Hypothetically speaking, if the game were to LOSE as much as possible, could you do it CONSISTENTLY? By consistent, I mean... could you achieve approximately a 45° degree slope downward(p/l)?

 

[Vindago]

Great question! my first answer was, yes of course, it is so easy to loose, but then it got me thinking. I need to think about this a bit more...

 

[tiddlywinks]

The goal seems to be to make more than you lose.

Question for the fellow plebs...

Hypothetically speaking, if the game were to LOSE as much as possible, could you do it CONSISTENTLY? By consistent, I mean... could you achieve approximately a 45° degree slope downward(p/l)?

Immediately comes to mind is the book Adam Theory of Markets, by Welles Wilder. Yes, that Welles Wilder: inventor of RSI and some other well-known indicators.

In a word, Adam Theory uses "reflection".

Here's amzn link to the book. THIS IS NOT A PURCHASE RECOMMENDATION!
Sorry, I don't know how to embed an amzn link.

ISBN 13: 978-9997619730
amazon.com/Adam-Theory-Markets-Matters-Profit/dp/9997619730


Here's a look at ES last week, reflected.

 

[Pelt]

Immediately comes to mind is the book Adam Theory of Markets,

Small world, i'm pretty familar w/that. I particularly liked the story of the little girl in the beginning, and the general idea of trying to buy when the mkt is moving up and vice/versa.

 

[IANAE]

It's a few years since I visited this site.

I see the obvious pre-req has been stated. You need to start out with a way of trading which actually works.

nysestocks mentions a different way. It's stated in black & white in a few posts.

I know this is better than the mainstream way because I changed to this and the results greatly improved.

Happy trading!