Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[Onra]

other posts..i have no interest in FX or any other instrument apart from Bitcoin..i am not trading bitcoin but am making some money from it.. another days discussion..

my discussion is about trading the MES

Then why did you ask...?

actually..to make it more interesting..when you post your chart..post the chart for the instrument you trade..or papertrade..and..the chart which you think is the best chart for discussion about the instrument you have chosen..the chart must show the full day of the NYSE for your chosen day..that is..from 09:30 to 16:00 NY Time

 

[Laissez Faire]

no no no..horses for courses..remember!!

scalping on the pc is not the same as short term..or even swing trading..on your phone!!

you can not perfect an entry using your phone..not unless you have it connected to several tablets

if you are scalping..then the charts tell you when to get in..and when to get out..you might be in and out many times..but if you don't know what you are doing..then..you will be like a yo yo..

I'm not sure why you mention trading from a phone. Personally, I wouldn't do that as a day trader where precision and timing is important.

if you don't know WHY you just made..or lost.. some money..then you really should not be trading..i think this is a reasonable assumption..as would any normal thinking person..yes?

Well, that's easy. If you lose money as a directional trader it's usually (always?) because you're on the wrong side of the market, i.e, BLASH becomes BHASL or SHABL becomes SHABH.

As for why that happens - it could be explained by multiple reasons:

1. You have no idea what you're doing.

2. Moving stops and letting small bets turn into large losses.

3. You know what you're doing, but since probabilities are never certainties, you could place a bet that just don't work out.

4. You know what you're doing to some extent, yet other issues make you trade poorly, i.e., too high leverage, trading with money you can't lose, greed/fear influencing your analysis, FOMO, overtrading due to boredom, etc.

 

[Mysteron]

this thread..what if the OBVIOUS that NY spoke about..is a real edge..and.. because it is so OBVIOUS is the exact reason why it is NOT SO OBVIOUS..

could this be a reality?

Thats highly unlikely, but any form of trading from price charts is generally based on trying to recognise opportunies from combinations of bars in the context of upcoming events that may cause price to move significantly. For example the 'step response' shape in the box often occurs, with an upside down version for falling price.

 

[M4-1]

Then why did you ask...?

for discussion..had to point out that as i only trade the ES/MES then do not be surprised if some of what i say does not work with the likes of FX.. simple really!

 

[M4-1]

I'm not sure why you mention trading from a phone. Personally, I wouldn't do that as a day trader where precision and timing is important.



Well, that's easy. If you lose money as a directional trader it's usually (always?) because you're on the wrong side of the market, i.e, BLASH becomes BHASL or SHABL becomes SHABH.

As for why that happens - it could be explained by multiple reasons:

1. You have no idea what you're doing.

2. Moving stops and letting small bets turn into large losses.

3. You know what you're doing, but since probabilities are never certainties, you could place a bet that just don't work out.

4. You know what you're doing to some extent, yet other issues make you trade poorly, i.e., too high leverage, trading with money you can't lose, greed/fear influencing your analysis, FOMO, overtrading due to boredom, etc.

well..trading from the phone has worked out well for me so far..but i do prefer the pc..obviously!

if you know why you just had a loser..then that is fine..as next time you might be able to do something about it..but..if you don't know why..then how can you do anything about it the next time!

 

[M4-1]

Thats highly unlikely, but any form of trading from price charts is generally based on trying to recognise opportunies from combinations of bars

what if the method used can produce adequate LRT's with adequate repeatedly..which is the basis for successful trading!

would this not be a "real edge" ?

 

[M4-1]

Personally, I am not into taking heat for the sake of taking heat for any particular trade. This board is filled with battalions of heat-takers.

All of them rooted in some form of fear. Fear of loss, fear of being wrong (or right), fear of proving others correct, fear of a lack of knowledge, and more.

While some might say I have a fear of taking heat, my trading includes methods and techniques so I can adhere to minimal-heat taking... It's me by design making lemonade out of a situation I PREFER not to endure. Time can not be rewound. Opportunity loss is as bad or worse than financial loss. There is only one moment in time when you can arrive in time.

One that is active here thinks "time" is his edge. He will be "trading" December contracts later this week (it's rollover time) so he can sustain (and complain about) large drawdowns lasting weeks and months, only to maybe get an exit at BE on some of the bad trades he enters. Still others just don't know how to say or get to NEXT!

NEXT! It's extremely freeing (for me)! And it keeps time and opportunities and therefore money, in flow. It's just a trade!

i agree that lost opportunity is lost money..and staying in a bad trade is not a good idea..but..the trade is only bad if you lose more than you had initially intended to lose..for..every trade must be taken as a loser..only way..otherwise you might as well give it up..as it will only be a matter of time before you blow up your account..or several accounts as many have done!

 

[baron193]

to clarify my meaning of low risk..

"the trade should go in your favour very quickly after you get filled"

in other words..TIMING is everything..in both entries and exits..

i think that stop placements are detrimental to making money trading!!

the longer you are in the market the longer your money is at risk

if you decide to play market maker trades..as i do at times..then you MUST be prepared for a large drawdown in relation to the potential profit

the real money is made in holding winning trades for several days..but again..unless you are WILLING and ABLE to accept the possible resulting drawdowns..and potential LOSSES..then as my old friend RN would say..

"you might as well be pissing up a rope" !!

I am a skeptic and maybe even a cynical guy of most things but i do like this post...there's a lot of substance in it, only IMO of course.

 

[M4-1]

I am a skeptic and maybe even a cynical guy of most things but i do like this post...there's a lot of substance in it, only IMO of course.

it is based on experience..big winners..big losers..small winners..no losers..

while it is possible to get big winners and small losers..i think most tend to let losers run longer than winners..as..it is human nature due to fear..hope..wishing..praying..etc

a good approach is too always only risk the money you have made..or..to be more specific..only a portion of the money you have made..

it took me years to "cop on"..and i think most never get to that point..as..they haven't followed the golden rules..and..so have either lost all..or most..of their hard earned money..

this is not just in trading..any "idea" that puts your capital at risk..such as property..business ventures..rare coinage..vintage wines..and so on..

wherever there is money..there will be those who are willing..and able..to get the ill informed pleb to part with it..and as such..

"some things really do never change"

 

[M4-1]

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