Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

I prefer indices rather than FX. For the broker that I use FXCM and their GER30, SPX500 and US30 are all good and have strong moves. The GER30 is based on the DAX index future and is nice for trading UK am. From UK midday onwards either SPX500 based on E-mini S&P500 future or US30 based on E-mini Dow future. They are correlated to some extentand when one twitches the others usually do.
 
M4-1 said:
MES:
Low Risk
Low Funding
Low Commissions
More...

I'd say commissions on MES are relatively high compared with ES, but with a good win rate and a lower trading frequency it should be fine.

If I understand correctly so far, low risk in this thread is defined as both low risk (meaning the reward should at least be a multiple of the risk, i.e., 2:1 or more) and high(er) probability of a win (> 50%).

Correct?

Practically speaking, then - what's a typical stop on ES/MES these days?
 
Vindago said:
So M3, here is my answer: I trade Forex, in particular EUR.USD, there are two main reasons why I do so:
  1. Experience, I have been trading forex for several years now and I am comfortable with it, I am getting to recognize most of the "tricks" and "traps" and avoid them
  2. I lost/spent most of my savings so I have very little capital to trade and forex is the only market that offers me enough leverage to trade
Extra reason, even if each market has its own peculiarities, the basics for the methodology that I apply to trade are the same.

Here is how I go about trading Forex (or any marked, for that matter):
  • First, before day start I check what is the status for the higher TFs (M, W, D are Trending and if so in what direction or are consolidating after what direction).
  • Then I check lower TFs (4H, 1H, 30M and 15 M) and do the same checks as above
  • then I mainly follow price when trending on one or more TFs (the higher the intraday TF the better, especially if lower TF are in agreement) by taking a step back and running along until the trend gives signs of braking, or I reach one critical level, then I monitor carefully how price respond to the level and act accordingly.
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honest reply..and i would say you are not alone..very few actually make any money trading..as..they usually give it back..same as gambling in the casinos..

i do not trade FX..so i can not comment if the same methodology works..the S&R levels on any chart will be just that..but how the instrument behaves when it approaches these levels can be different..due to the way that people trade the instrument..

all i know..is that the ES/MES has adequate predictability..thus it is the least risky to trade in my books..which is the only reason i trade it..
 
Laissez Faire said:
I'd say commissions on MES are relatively high compared with ES, but with a good win rate and a lower trading frequency it should be fine.

If I understand correctly so far, low risk in this thread is defined as both low risk (meaning the reward should at least be a multiple of the risk, i.e., 2:1 or more) and high(er) probability of a win (> 50%).

Correct?

Practically speaking, then - what's a typical stop on ES/MES these days?
More...

what if i said the typical stop on the ES prior the recent volatility since covid-19 was 10 points..and now it must be more!!!!
 
other posts..i have no interest in FX or any other instrument apart from Bitcoin..i am not trading bitcoin but am making some money from it.. another days discussion..

my discussion is about trading the MES..i have thoroughly explained the reasoning behind my decision..if you are trading any other instrument then i do not know how my setup or interpretation of how the ES/MES's predictability can be related to any other instrument..

a chart is a chart is a chart..but only to a certain extent..as just noted..

always remember that..

"you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear"
 
to clarify my meaning of low risk..

"the trade should go in your favour very quickly after you get filled"

in other words..TIMING is everything..in both entries and exits..

i think that stop placements are detrimental to making money trading!!

the longer you are in the market the longer your money is at risk

if you decide to play market maker trades..as i do at times..then you MUST be prepared for a large drawdown in relation to the potential profit

the real money is made in holding winning trades for several days..but again..unless you are WILLING and ABLE to accept the possible resulting drawdowns..and potential LOSSES..then as my old friend RN would say..

"you might as well be pissing up a rope" !!
 
the pdf..although the author is generally correct in relation to "you might as well be tossing a coin"..he is of course speaking only from his own experiences..and one must always keep that in mind when reading any text!

in the past i traded FTSE 100 options..selling puts to be specific..with built in risk management..and wait for it..also with available what was called a Golden Hedge!!

the reality is that the Golden Hedge actually works..but as with all trading..until such time as you have actually done it..you will never understand it..

so..what happened me..was..back in 2007 i lost in one day what most pleb's would lose in a lifetime of trading..why..simple..because i did not fully understand my in built risk management..and..i panicked to exit the tumbling markets..the FTSE was falling around 300 to 400 points a day!!

in summary..

'if only i knew then..what i now know " :)
 
and..the big question that you all seek..

"is there really and edge that can..and does..make a difference to your trading results"

in effect..what this means..is..

"does someone else know something..that if i get to know..will help me make money trading"

well..what is your answers..based on your experiences to date?
 
this thread..what if the OBVIOUS that NY spoke about..is a real edge..and.. because it is so OBVIOUS is the exact reason why it is NOT SO OBVIOUS..

could this be a reality?
 
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