Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[The Obvious]

Well, to be precise then. Did you refer to a low risk long entry or a low risk short entry?

I know nothing, so I don't think my opinion matters or is of any interest to anyone. However, since you ask, I'd say that for a low risk long entry it's still a tad too early, unless you're looking for a scalp.

4000/4009.

Read this post, then pull up a chart for the S&P for the period he's referring to.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-11#post-2340900

The majority were looking for a long entry but that wasn't the "obvious" thing to do.

 

[Laissez Faire]

But you can't possibly know it's a real swing low, as opposed to a fake, until it's already gone up quite a bit.

You know that for a fact?

The way I see it there's two types of swing high/low - fast and slow. With a fast swing you pretty much need to have a limit placed in advance, i.e., anticipating a move off a specific level or price target. R10 levels have been mentioned. In a way - this is predicting. You're predicting (or betting) that a bounce or drop will occur. If you wait too long for confirmation you're essentially late to the party and it's no longer LR.

Then you have swing highs/lows that are rounded or revisited multiple times. Here, you have both more time and opportunity and confirmation to assume it's a swing high/low. These are easier to manage. Right now you have 48/50 as one such swing high on ES. It's a LR short entry.

At the end of the day - while a low risk entry is key, it's the exit that makes you money. So, you got a low risk entry. Fine. What now? Where do you exit? And when? Will you risk one certain point of unrealized profit which you can know put into your pocket or will you hold for a much larger and more uncertain move?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Read this post, then pull up a chart for the S&P for the period he's referring to.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-11#post-2340900

The majority were looking for a long entry but that wasn't the "obvious" thing to do.

Thanks for the link. I'm considering if I should actually start from page 1 and read through it. With all due respect to everyone involved, I'm not convinced that there is one thing such as the obvious to be found or understood and maybe this thread is one big smoke screen, but it certainly is a thread which makes you think and consider reality from multiple perspectives. And that alone ain't a bad thing.

First, I need to finish that piece from Montaigne.

 

[The Obvious]

You know that for a fact?

Yes because neither you, me or anyone else can see into the future.

At any given point in time, price can do anything.

You might think you see a swing low but you can only be certain with the benefit of hindsight.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Yes because neither you, me or anyone else can see into the future.

At any given point in time, price can do anything.

Well, sure. But is it possible that there can exist a trading model which could identify swing highs/lows with a very high degree of certainty? Not 100 %, but maybe 90%?

Equally, isn't it true that a real big player could effectively print a swing high/low in the market (if only for a brief period of time) if he so chooses?

 

[odlareg]

Well, sure. But is it possible that there can exist a trading model which could identify swing highs/lows with a very high degree of certainty? Not 100 %, but maybe 90%?

Equally, isn't it true that a real big player could effectively print a swing high/low in the market (if only for a brief period of time) if he so chooses?

It is 1) for CERTAIN depending to the TF you are watching. High volatiliticy demands a shorter TF. When we expand in the day I expand my settings.

GO

 

[The Obvious]

...is it possible...[to] identify swing highs/lows with a very high degree of certainty?...

Probably not but it doesn't stop an awful lot of people trying.

It would certainly be one heck of a market anomaly if it was possible.

 

[Vindago]

so my Achille's heel is that I am biased versus entering a trade at a pivot point, I know it is the hardest thing to do but I keep falling into this disastrous behavior.

I know better and I am changing my ways but how f.king ingrained is this!

Yet, I see form above posts that I am not alone

 

[Vindago]

It dropped 20 points below his low risk entry (unless he suggests it actually was a short), so not sure if you should.

View attachment 258803

it was very clearly a low risk short (around 4140), I would have taken it happily myself!

 

[The Obvious]

so my Achille's heel is that I am biased versus entering a trade at a pivot point, I know it is the hardest thing to do but I keep falling into this disastrous behavior.

Most people assume, that to make money trading, you have to get in on the turn. When price is falling all they need to do is get in at the bottom.

Some will try and predict in advance when it's going to turn (surely it can't go much lower), and often end up catching a falling knife. Even if you wait for an uptick, there's no guarantee that it will turn into a decent move up. It could just be a tiny respite before resuming the downtrend.

Clearly, whatever the "obvious" is, it's definitely not this, and nysestocks confirms as much:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/why-is-the-obvious-not-so-obvious.151802/page-19#post-2345564