Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[M4-1]

i must watch this film as it might come in handy in the near future!

 

[Pelt]

Some previous posts about TIME/MONEY.

the most important thing to know is the price..for..it is the price that will either make u money..or cost u money

once u know about the price..then u use the time to your advantage

Time = Money

Money = Price Movement

Price can not move without Time

volume is of course important..but can be ignored if the correct stocks are traded..highly liquid stocks

if u look at too many things u will not see TIME fly by

I am rapidly losing interest in this site, so I am not going to post for a while unless some serious questions are asked to raise the bar a bit!

This thread is not for beginners, who must go thru the discovery process, even though they don't realize it until it is too late!

I will leave you with the following for consideration.

1) Daytraders have little or no effect on stock market liquidity.

2) MM's hedge their bets.

3) Big Money will not stay in the same place for too long a time.

4) When you think you should be buying you really should be selling.

5) When you think you should be selling you really should be buying.

YES and NO!

Always remember one thing!!!!

"There is ALWAYS someone out there that knows that little bit more than me"

It is "that little bit more" that can make all of the difference!

I know, I have walked the wrong path many times, and it was only when the "correct" path was shown to me did I actually "see" it!

I kicked myself up the "ass" for being such a fool for so long!!

Now for the bit that gets really hairy scarry

What if I was to say, that, with a 95% probability, that RIG would hit $67 within a certain given timeframe.

We all know that a stock price can only do 3 things - but the time that it does those 3 things can vary, as time and price are not one and the same, how can they be so, it is just not possible:eek:

The big question to ask, is, how the hell can I determine where the price will be, within a certain time frame, and what are the odds of the price hitting that level?

If it was so "obvious", then why didn't all the traders just buy RIG and make a killing?

I know the answer to the riddle, and a few others, but as mentioned I can't say, for obvious reasons.

But, some people are now starting to see that you don't actually have to know the obvious to make some money, but you do need to be able to think for yourself, and know that the majority of people out there are nothing but idiots, who all think they are "holier than thou", well, the reality of it all, is that the only person that a trader needs to "worry" about is himself/herself, and let all the silly idiots in the world look after themselves!

And now the "S" is getting smaller!

Who said that time and price are not one and the same - maybe I am right, and maybe I am wrong, but one thing is certain, the "obvious" removes the big "doubt" and focuses on the facts.

Maybe I wll accept some help from our good friend, after all, $20K a day is nothing to laugh at

of course TOD is a factor..a MAJOR factor..but the chart is what matters most..not the time

if u care to do some basic research..into what effect time has on price..then all u need do is set the clock for 1 hour..and then compare!

a bit of common sense thinking is required..not drawing stupid fuking colored lines all over the place..that not even a sneaky snake could get thru

do u now see why it is so important to be able to distinguish between those who know what they talk about..and those who do not..for..there is one born every day..just waiting to be sucked in

TO

fools gold..the market ALWAYS dictates at what TIME u will exit..for..re-entry is but a click away..if need be

now..as bad as jack is..and his funny pictures..his reference in relation to MANY entries and exits is not to be ignored..not too many mind u..just enough..but..to do so with the same stock..the same day..might not be the least risky way of trading

diversification can help u save..and make..good money

Of course Vespasian, after all, you asked did you not, and when someone asks then one should respond.

This book is a little bit influenced by previous books on the subject of pattern recognition - most of which are of very limited value.

Take the Aussie - the one who came up with the wavetrader way to crack the ES, I even heard of it called the way to pick "falling apples off the ground" - but let me now say in all honesty that as usual, most of it was, is, and will always be nothing more than wishful thinking - aka - pure and utter rubbish.

I am being serious here now, not the father jack me - so read what I say with intent!

Whilst waves and patterns do indeed appear - to think that, just because a pattern is forming, it will complete itself to the near exactitude that they all say - well - is nothing more than fools gold.

Taking money from others, will depend on several things - the main one being control - if control is not possible, then the odds are automatically stacked against you - so - in this instance you have no option but to trade a lot smaller size.

But - when in full control - the whole scenario is turned upside down - and now - if you but understand what the "right time" means - then you will quickly see the reason why most of it is pure and utter rubbish.

I hope this is very clear, as it is to me and a few others that have been up and down enough times to see what really makes the difference - and it is not a beautiful butterfly - or anything like that - really!

 

[Laissez Faire]

1. funded contentment

2. no debts of any kind

3. frugality

4. regular income - work or pension

5. adequate savings

6. never put all your eggs in one basket

Yes. All forms of financial pressure, i.e., having to making a living is detrimental to trading success.

Obvious.

7. never take advice from anyone else unless you fully understand what the advice is and what the worst case scenario is

8. trading experience - intra day holding

9. trading experience - several days holding

10. LR + AmO + AdV

11. symbol nuisances

12. reality check - every trade can't be a winner..but.. you can win a certain $ amount with a certain amount of trades

13. no superstition

14. no wishing..hoping..or praying

Well, obvious too, I'd say.

15. profits are removed and put into cash once the value equal to your initial account value has been achieved

16. as RN used to say..Rinse..Repeat..Rinse..Repeat

Well, that's one way to make sure you keep your money as you keep saying. However, depending on account size (which usually is small for a retail trader who wants to get rich from trading), extracting profits means that you're not able to scale up your stake and will forever stay grinding.

Example: If I have a 100K account - I'd probably be happy to extract 100K from it when my initial capital is doubled. However, if I have a 10K account - I'd rather trade one extra contract as I hit 20K.

And if you don't have any financial pressure (see above) - it's not like it's money you need anyhow.

 

[M4-1]

Yes. All forms of financial pressure, i.e., having to making a living is detrimental to trading success.

Obvious.



Well, obvious too, I'd say.



Well, that's one way to make sure you keep your money as you keep saying. However, depending on account size (which usually is small for a retail trader who wants to get rich from trading), extracting profits means that you're not able to scale up your stake and will forever stay grinding.

Example: If I have a 100K account - I'd probably be happy to extract 100K from it when my initial capital is doubled. However, if I have a 10K account - I'd rather trade one extra contract as I hit 20K.

And if you don't have any financial pressure (see above) - it's not like it's money you need anyhow.

i am not interested in a $100K account..or $50k..or $20k..or $10k..or even $5K !!!!!!

i am only interested in risking a meager $2k..which is AMPLE for trading the MES the way i speak of..

as an uncle of mine who died used to say..

" if they get as much enjoyment out of spending it..as i do out of saving it..i will be happy"

of course..when he died his money didn't go to where he wanted it to go..but that is another reality of life that people often ignore !

there is nothing like counting $10 or $20, or some more if you have time..for reminding yourself that you couldn't give a damn about what any other idiot is doing..as long as the idiots don't get their hands on my money..that is all that matters to me!

oh..typo above..i left out the "k"

 

[M4-1]

Some previous posts about TIME/MONEY.

the time to go..is when it's slow
for when too fast..you might be last
before you click..do not be thick
make sure you know..where money grow

you see it's like..a water dike
with many rock..to act as block
but if you peep..over hill so steep
the dike is calm..o what a charm

so take the time..and wait for chime
as rushing sound..knock you to ground
if you keep get..your toe so wet
then stop you fool..and use the tool

 

[Pelt]

I am no poet, we all know it,
but I'll take a stab, to see how goes it...

the time to go..is when it's slow
for when too fast..you might be last
before you click..do not be thick
make sure you know..where money grow

There are times, when price is small,
and there are times, when price grow tall.

you see it's like..a water dike
with many rock..to act as block
but if you peep..over hill so steep
the dike is calm..o what a charm

There are also times, when price craz-ey,
and there are times, when price be pace-ey.
When price be small, some times I see...
A waterfall, where price do be.
Rolling down, and not insane,
but nice and smooth, and in control.

Do the parts above, make any sense,
or am I, just speaking dense?
Tell the truth, for I am thick,
only average IQ, won't take offense.

so take the time..and wait for chime
as rushing sound..knock you to ground
if you keep get..your toe so wet
then stop you fool..and use the tool

Now wut te fook, is this chime,
Obv-ee-ously, some relation to time.
What is this, in the mix,
is the chime...
always same time?
Or is it a range, that can change,
is the time, always the same?

My chime is broke, cant get to work,
is the chime, a tweezer or fork?

 

[M4-1]

 

[M4-1]

 

[M4-1]

 

[Vindago]

M4-1 you show a box, could you draw it before price moved inside and outside it? as drawing it after the fact would provide no particular advantage, right?

I am asking as in the former case I might look into it and try to see how you could have drawn the box ahead of time and try to reverse engineer what you might have done