Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Pelt said:
Does anyone here have an idea of what they consider TA, or PA is? Preferably not something from investopedia or another site.
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Maybe a little more detail will help. When I say TA I mean any indicator that is mathematically derived from the underlying.

Now, the PA is not as straight forward as one has to look at a chart to see where price is now in relation to where it has just been. One can use raw numbers, but no good for any reasonable duration. So, with your question you have in fact noted that PA can not be ignored for any worthwhile trading, but one needs to be very careful as to how much " fortune telling" can be used with PA. If you look at such things as inside/outside bars, wide range bars versus narrow range bars, bar counting and bar formations, then you run the risk of what happens when using TA, namely "paralysis from analysis".

The best way will always be the simplest way, and the simplest way is the most "obvious" way.

Good question.
 
Well, we often throw these terms around... and I suspect different people have come to different understandings of what these things mean.

I don't really come to forums anymore looking for HOW to trade profitably, for obvious reasons, but there are just a few that I continue to read and follow(<5). Typically in the ones that I read(bc the topic interests me), TA and PA are rarely the focus.

But I've always wondered if some people who know what they are doing, are actually using some form of PA or TA, that just doesn't fit the common understanding of TA or PA?

So I wonder if the differences are purely semantical?
 
Pelt said:
Well, we often throw these terms around... and I suspect different people have come to different understandings of what these things mean.

I don't really come to forums anymore looking for HOW to trade profitably, for obvious reasons, but there are just a few that I continue to read and follow(<5). Typically in the ones that I read(bc the topic interests me), TA and PA are rarely the focus.

But I've always wondered if some people who know what they are doing, are actually using some form of PA or TA, that just doesn't fit the common understanding of TA or PA?

So I wonder if the differences are purely semantical?
More...
As one poster pointed out, you must have a "strategy" that works, but I prefer to call it another word, as strategy is associated with TA and automation. In a nutshell, all you need do to make money is get in and get out at the right times. If you can not do this, for whatever reasons, then unless you can change and make it happen, then it is time to call it a day and stop wasting your time and your hard earned money. You might think nothing of the last chart I posted, but if you can not make money trading that chart, then the odds if you making any money worth talking about are very very slim.

Ignore all the clueless clowns, dopey dudes, and so called " experts". The mere fact that a person says he has worked out some way to make money by using some form of TA, be it automated or not, shows that he really knows nothing about what is really involved in making money trading, and being able to hold on to it, which is the most important bit.

Reminds me of a story during the dot com boom, where a couple made millions trading and had a screen with CNBC in every room, even the bathroom. Needless to say, post 2000 they barely had the toilet bowl to have a you know what in :)
 
Pelt, as they say, persistence sometims pays off. Send me your email address if interested, nothing else. I will send you something to read. It should help you, but if not, it will be entirely your own fault, no one else to blame only you. There is only 1 requirement, and that is it is only for you, so you can not give or tell anyone else on here about it. I do not like giving away my many hours of searching and filtering to just anyone, just because they ask. A person must show a genuine interest if they hope to get on, same as with any walk of life.
 
Let's forget about TA for a brief moment, as I've always thought of TA as the use of indicators that are derived from price, or even trendlines I've considered as TA. But if making the distinction between PA and TA, I would consider trendlines as a part of PA. Any use of chart patterns(ABCs, Gartleys etc) I guess I would throw into PA.

Again ignoring TA for now...

So, I am not trying to be cute by asking this question to anyone interested in the topic... But if you are looking at a chart, and using the past/current representation of where price is, is that not PA? I'm having a hard time understanding WHY PA is useless? Although I have heard it many times from people who appear to think differently about trading than most forum posters.

There is a guaranteed way to make money in roulette, assuming one does not have a limit to their bankroll, and there are no table limits. As the strategy is not really about the numbers of the game, but simply the understanding the core odds of the game(50/50).

I could see such a logic applied to a chart in a way, that might not fit any typical definitions of PA. I am wondering if that is the distinction that is being made when explaining WHY TA/PA is of no use?
 
There is no quick solution to all this,takes years and years before anybody builds robust strategy.Only few progress to this stage and they are not talking.
Why does it work?The math,but the idea has to come first,math proves it later.
 
Van_der_Voort_4 said:
There is no quick solution to all this,takes years and years before anybody builds robust strategy.Only few progress to this stage and they are not talking.
Why does it work?The math,but the idea has to come first,math proves it later.
More...
Yes, and when you finally get there you kick yourself in the ass for been a fool for so long. There really is no substitute for experience, and very few are wise enough to see the many pitfalls, even when pointed out to them. You only really learn when you get fed up losing. Pity for most that they lose too much, thus ending their experiences. This is why preservation of capital is the most important part of any strategy, as even the most stupid of people can eventually wise up providing they trade long enough.

Ignore the car salesman, as like all salesmen the only thing they want is your money. Keep your hard earned money for as long as you can, and the only time you should be in a hurry to give some away is when the chart you are looking at looks like it is time to do so. After all, another opportunity is just a mouse click away.

You are not born lucky, but you can learn to take advantage of luck when you are "in the right place at the right time".

Another big misconception, as you can not make your own luck, but you can act when the time is right, providing you head is not full of silly and ridiculous thoughts.
 
Pelt said:
Let's forget about TA for a brief moment, as I've always thought of TA as the use of indicators that are derived from price, or even trendlines I've considered as TA. But if making the distinction between PA and TA, I would consider trendlines as a part of PA. Any use of chart patterns(ABCs, Gartleys etc) I guess I would throw into PA.

Again ignoring TA for now...

So, I am not trying to be cute by asking this question to anyone interested in the topic... But if you are looking at a chart, and using the past/current representation of where price is, is that not PA? I'm having a hard time understanding WHY PA is useless? Although I have heard it many times from people who appear to think differently about trading than most forum posters.

There is a guaranteed way to make money in roulette, assuming one does not have a limit to their bankroll, and there are no table limits. As the strategy is not really about the numbers of the game, but simply the understanding the core odds of the game(50/50).

I could see such a logic applied to a chart in a way, that might not fit any typical definitions of PA. I am wondering if that is the distinction that is being made when explaining WHY TA/PA is of no use?
More...

Ok, time to get serious for a moment. It does not really matter what you call it, or someone else calls it, in the same way that is does not really matter what someone else says or does, The only thing that should concern you with trading or investing, is how much money you are willing to lose before you start to make money, as you will not make money without first losing some, no matter who tries to convince you otherwise, for whatever reasons.

The world is full of know alls who know everything about nothing. One of the biggest mistakes that newbies make is paying too much heed to the likes of @Handle123 and the rest of the know alls who speak the most unbelievable rubbish. This is not getting at H123 and the likes, it is just the plain and simple truth.

You allocate X amount of your money (never borrow to trade or invest as that is only a fools game) to "learn the ropes". If, after some time, you are not "learning" anything about making money, you have 2 choices.

1. Pack it in and say "oh well"

or

2. Take it serious and make it your business to find out why you are not able to make money and hold on to it.

If you do not know the answers to no.2 at this stage, even though you might not be able to affect change as of yet, then, you really should have plenty of your X amount left, or you should give some serious thought to no.1

A fool and his money are indeed "easily parted", so make it your business to not stay a fool, and find out how to do what you need to do, and more importantly, WHEN to do it.

I am no expert, guru, clown or dude, but I do speak from many experiences of making and losing money, so, in that respect, I do know a good deal about what does and does not work best. To me it is very obvious, to you, well, it will not become obvious until such time as you allow it to be so.

Now, back to not being that serious :)
 
For me the obvious is do the opposite of the crowd during times of high volatility marked by huge volume, extreme fear or greed, and big tails. Every new trader wants to follow the smart money - not me. I follow the dumb money, their foot prints have not changed over the last 100 years as seen on historical price/volume charts. When dumb money capitulates its time to get busy and take the counter trade. Every year there are plenty of opportunities for this, provided you follow a broad range of markets. Overlayed with a well written trading plan, good risk mgmt, and some classic TA it is like taking candy from a baby. (hehe)
 
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