Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[algofy]

Ok, let us start again, as that is always the best place to start when you are getting nowhere. Firstly, always think of the little green fellow with the long skinny arms and legs, as this site is full of them. Whenever you hear any person mention back testing, think of him as the little green fellow, as he hasn't a clue about making money trading. Questions?

Are you saying that backtesting isn't helpful?

 

[Pelt]

Are you saying that backtesting isn't helpful?

Have you not done this at some point and noticed what happens?

 

[algofy]

Have you not done this at some point and noticed what happens?

I have backtested extensively and my backtested v future results come in overall fairly similar.

I find great value in backtesting.

 

[wtfauoa]

I have backtested extensively and my backtested v future results come in overall fairly similar.

I find great value in backtesting.

The big spenders ask to see 3 sets of results, be it backtesting, simulated or live. Why do they not ask to see more than 3?
What real value do you see, or is it perceived value.

 

[wtfauoa]

I have a question: is it more useful to understand the HOW or the WHY price move one way or another or is it necessary to understand both?

I mean, I have some understanding of why even if I cannot connect it with the how all the time, on the other hand I often enough understand how price move and can identify low risk trades as my P&L suggest.

Neither. Now, give me some reasons why this may be so, and remember, think before you reply.

 

[algofy]

The big spenders ask to see 3 sets of results, be it backtesting, simulated or live. Why do they not ask to see more than 3?
What real value do you see, or is it perceived value.

The big spenders? Who is this?

When I test strategies that get shitty results on backtest they also get shitty results live sim, generally same with profitable strats....profitable backtest = profitable live sim. So yes I get real value.

 

[wtfauoa]

The big spenders? Who is this?

When I test strategies that get shitty results on backtest they also get shitty results live sim, generally same with profitable strats....profitable backtest = profitable live sim. So yes I get real value.

You are wasting your time, just remember where you heard it when the day comes, as it will as sure as day becomes night.

 

[wtfauoa]

WINNING vs LOSING: How can you distinguish between being lucky(being in the right place at the right time) and actually being onto doing what needs to be done?

BACKTESTING: What qualifies as backtesting? Does that mean creating some automated strategy to let one of the off-the-shelf charting programs run simulated results? Or does that mean any checking of historical prices to see what needs to be done?

There is no need to distinguish between anything. If you are in the right place at the right time, and are willing and able to act and react, then you will make more money than you lose providing you observe some simple maths and always use common sense approach. It stands to reason that what everyone else tries just does not work in the long run, so why do what everyone else does.

Backtesting is using historical data to make trades based on what you consider to be a systematic approach that will repeat in the future. It is a total waste of time and effort, but as whole industries have evolved around this concept (pushed by the shovel sellers), even the so called professionals are easily fooled.

It is very hard for the inexperienced to see this reality, and it will really only become apparent after many big winners and losers. If one does not change then the results will never change. Common sense really.

 

[algofy]

You are wasting your time, just remember where you heard it when the day comes, as it will as sure as day becomes night.

Lol....oh wise one, please grace me with your wisdom. Maybe try saying one thing that isn't vague and can actually be usable. This thread is nothing but smoke and mirrors.

 

[W.J. Feathermaker III]

Lol....oh wise one, please grace me with your wisdom. Maybe try saying one thing that isn't vague and can actually be usable. This thread is nothing but smoke and mirrors.

He's trying to play some "knowledge arb"...i.e. he posts his moronic platitudes in this thread while scrounging for "info" in other threads.