Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

I'm absolutely amazed this thread is still ongoing. Almost ONE MILLION VIEWS! Has anybody TRULY gotten anything of value out of this topic? Just curious. I think the prolific amount of views says something about the psyche of the human/trader brain...our natural instinct to NEVER be the one who misses out on anything of benefit, especially if we think everyone else is in the "know"...except you know who!;)
 
I did find it very useful, actually in conjunction with a couple more threads it has been the basis of my consistent profitability.

however, the messages the OPs delivered have become clear only after I did my own work, which in my own opinion is the main message here: figure things out for yourself...
 
Vindago said:
on any TF, are you ever able to guess where the next candle is likely to be? if so how can you use that? remember 100 penny makes a pound...
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Do you mean where the high/low of that next bar will be?

Or just where ANY portion of the bar might wind up existing?

Are we talking about an observation such as the higher the bar resolution, there is a higher tendency for price of adjacent bars to have overlapping prices?
 
Yes to the first, what if you defined where to expect the H/L of the next bar on, say, a 30' TF and traded a lower TF within these boundaries... now would you not know exactly what to do whatever happened?

of course there are some bars that are safer to trade than others...
 
Vindago said:
Yes to the first, what if you defined where to expect the H/L of the next bar on, say, a 30' TF ...
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Would the story about the old 'Weather Prediction' algorithm that won the competition be of use as a starting point for such an expectation?
 
Ok, let us start again, as that is always the best place to start when you are getting nowhere. Firstly, always think of the little green fellow with the long skinny arms and legs, as this site is full of them. Whenever you hear any person mention back testing, think of him as the little green fellow, as he hasn't a clue about making money trading. Questions?
 
From now on I will not be replying to silly questions or time wasting posts, so please think before you post and make sure it is common sense and related to winning and losing. There are plenty more threads on this site if you only want entertainment.
 
I have a question: is it more useful to understand the HOW or the WHY price move one way or another or is it necessary to understand both?

I mean, I have some understanding of why even if I cannot connect it with the how all the time, on the other hand I often enough understand how price move and can identify low risk trades as my P&L suggest.
 
WINNING vs LOSING: How can you distinguish between being lucky(being in the right place at the right time) and actually being onto doing what needs to be done?

BACKTESTING: What qualifies as backtesting? Does that mean creating some automated strategy to let one of the off-the-shelf charting programs run simulated results? Or does that mean any checking of historical prices to see what needs to be done?
 
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