Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[K-Pia]

Volume - the fuel that drives the markets!

Lately, especially for ES during regular hours, I can see no real value in looking at volume by time, as the increases and decreases with price movements do not mean anything to me - why, I do not have a reason, but all I can think is that most of the trading is very short term, so the real long term "supply and demand" picture means piddly piss - it is now turned off and will be staying off for index futures.

Volume by price - now this view is showing a totally different picture to me, as I can see identifiable areas that can, and do, have a big impact on what price does when it returns to the areas!

Knowing that price has a high chance of "reacting" to a certain price level, allows you to be preapred - add in a few more "confirmations", and now you are starting to put the odds more in your favor - which over time, is what allows you to become the casino, and not stay the punter!

J_S

Right. One has to find valuable conditionals, evidences.
Conjecture and Test them then see if it's worthless or not.
But as H3 pointed out, underlyings have multiple personalities.
One really has to know what he's trading. And what's relevant or not.

For me, trading is all about being Antifragile & Anticipatory.
Which is having, at least, a robust Risk Management & sound Signals.
Overnight I found volume useful. But That's not what I am trading anymore.
Same for Market & Volume profile. Useful. But useless during the first quarters.

 

[J_Smith]

Here are

Right. One has to find valuable conditionals, evidences.
Conjecture and Test them then see if it's worthless or not.
But as H3 pointed out, underlyings have multiple personalities.
One really has to know what he's trading. And what's relevant or not.

For me, trading is all about being Antifragile & Anticipatory.
Which is having, at least, a robust Risk Management & sound Signals.
Overnight I found volume useful. But That's not what I am trading anymore.
Same for Market & Volume profile. Useful. But useless during the first quarters.

I do not want to dwell on "market specifics" too much, as RN rightly says , the market just "is".

There is but one price - but many interpretations!

My main focus now is on doing what needs to be done - to be honest, I know exactly what I need to do, and how to do it - not boasting, just a fact - but my head is still fuked up after 2 years of drinking and galavanting - again, not boasting or self pity, just a fact!

As it takes very little to fuk you up, it also takes very little to fix the problems - but the fixing is always 10 times harder - for obvious reasons.

A very good indicator is how mad you are at yourself - as, if still mad then your thoughts are still not right, and this will lead to fuk ups when trading, which causes a viscous circle.

The biggest problem, I think, is stubbornness, and that is not an easy one to fix, as it is due to many factors, some of which may be even genetic - but, anything is possible with the correct mental conditioning - and I am not talking about "shrinks", as they call them in the US - I am talking about doing small things that can make big changes - we all know what our small things are, and also how hard it is to do them

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

Looking forward to that day - for compared to the mkt - I am nothing

Be a major step up no doubt





This one aspect I find total peace..., enjoyment..., enrichment from

Mkt doesn't know..., or care about - right or wrong..., up or down..., high or low

It simply is


People otoh -> who can really say


=========


Future schoolboy in training

RN

This one will start a lot of them thinking

The reality, as we "should" all be aware of, is that, trading is gambling - money at risk, not even up for debate!

The level you want to take your gambling to, will determine the required amount of $$, and the required commitments.

There are many ways to gamble in the markets, but, some ways are way better than others in relation to ROR - risk instead of investment.

Some have already worked out the best ways, and, rightly do not go around sharing with just anyone, as that is the same thing as flushing money down the toilet.

Of course one can make money on their own, and do quite well, but, in order to make big money, one needs to have that super edge, which is there, but which very few know about, as it was never, nor will ever, be published anywhere.

Why not use it then, one might ask - simple, it only works at certain times in certain situations, so, in that respect, it is all about " being in the right place, at the right time", but when it does work, it is a real money maker - it is time to load up and clean up - as it has a 95% chance of success, as was demonstrated to me on several occasions by a person that I traded with for a while.

Just thought i would throw that out, as it is true, and I really have no reason to lie.

No boasting, self praise, or any of that shite - just a fact, which is very "obvious" to me!

It's a real bastard knowing the path, but not being able to walk it - due to no other reason than my own stupidity

J_S

 

[Vindago]

well, there is one very obvious thing price do all the time, over time, in any time frame...

figure out your own way to exploit that and you will start making money consistently, it is as simple as that...

 

[K-Pia]

well, there is one very obvious thing price do all the time, over time, in any time frame...

figure out your own way to exploit that and you will start making money consistently, it is as simple as that...

Obviously price fluctuates ...
To exploit without Robust Risk Management ...
Is still not enough (Sadly) to make money consistently.
Sometimes "Bugs" look good but they ain't actually profitable.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[Vindago]

K-Pia, as I was saying... figure out your own way to exploit this, that may include robust risk management, as it may include many other things, things different for each trader.

 

[K-Pia]

K-Pia, as I was saying... figure out your own way to exploit this, that may include robust risk management, as it may include many other things, things different for each trader.

My own way will lead me, luckily, on the other side of your trades.

Kiddin'

 

[Vindago]

well, if done properly you can profit even being on the other side of my trades, that's the beauty of the obvious...

 

[Redneck]

The reality, as we "should" all be aware of, is that, trading is gambling - money at risk, not even up for debate!

We've already had this discussion - in my book the two are not even in the same universe


Like saying the below are the same as both get off the ground / require a pilot

I know you know this JS..., but in my view - those who compare trading to gambling are woefully underestimating what involved / it requires - to trade


Trading - uncertainty vs. gambling - defined odds

Trading - can lose until a marge call..., even add more to a loser.., and only forced to exit via a margin call..., vs. gambling - predefined risk..., automatically exited at the conclusion of each hand / roll of the dice / spin of the wheel / event's conclusion

Trading - requires complete..., and unrelenting management of self..., vs. gambling - like I said can only lose the bet..., will be automatically taken out upon the conclusion of each bet

===========================

Just because one adept at gambling - does not mean that success automatically transfers to trading - seen way too many gamblers try..., and fail

A cessna pilot does not a strike fighter pilot make - yet both..., in fact..., fly a plane

=============

Flip side - if trading were as straightforward as gambling - just think how many more would be successful

I for one..., am Thankful it isn't

================

On another note;

No worse living hell than to know the path..., yet for whatever reason unable to traverse it

Been there..., done that - and nary a T-shirt to be had - just internal strife.., stress..., total turmoil


Stop beating yourself up..., and lay the demons to rest (make peace with em)

Nothing we can do about what has been..., or what will be

We can only let go of the past..., handle the here and now..., deal with the what will be as / when it arrives


Worrying about - or allowing any of it to influence us - is futile..., and a shear wast of our internal resources

It just another version of the same ole - woulda.., coulda..., shoulda

To hell with..., and fuck -> that

Make friends with that guy in the mirror - you'll have a totally trustworthy friend..., one you can completely count on..., and be honest with - for rest of your life

He'll be there - good times or bad..., through thick and thin - warts and all - none of it will make a tinker's damn to him

RN

 

[Vindago]

RN, as it has been said many times over in this thread and in others, you need to Not be a gambler to trade, meaning that when you trade you gamble but if you have a gambler attitude you are screwed as you will likely behave like a gambler!

I also agree with you that you need to let go of the past, whether it being personal history, or big losses/wins, I trade in the here and now (at least I try to do so).

small personal example: in my first year trading I lost something in the order of 40K$, do you know when I started making small but consistent money day in day out? whan I elaborated the loss and stop considering it a loss (stop thinking that I had to recover the loss) and start considering it a learning expense...