Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

You might think this is irrelevant, but some will know it is not.

Just watched good bit of The Godfather on tv, and, in the scene where Michael shot the policeman and other (can't rember his name), after getting gun hidden behind toilet cistern - my heart was actually racing a bit as Michael rubbed his hair back a few times before going back to the restaurant table!

J_S
 
J_Smith said:
Think before you answer this one..

What did thinking ever achieve on it's own?

J_S
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Two thoughts on this.

In some scenarios, thought w/o action to follow, will not accomplish the intended goal.

On the flip side, thinking about what is needed to be done may be what is necessary for one to eventually take the correct actions to accomplish what they want.

But my question would be, why think about something just to think about it, without plans of doing something with those ideas later?

But all of this is beside the point. My initial posting was simply an attempt to bring the thread back towards discussing what they may think is the obvious. And as I mentioned, I do not own the thread. Also, my opinion of what is relevant to the thread, is just that, an opinion. So if various posters think what they have to say is what is relevant to the topic, then that is all well and good also.

But the point of the post was just that, a hope that people are posting in this LONG thread with thoughts of the title in mind.
 
To me, and a few more, the obvious is as plain as the nose on your face - which most people can not see, no matter how hard they try - you can of course use the "mirror", and you will see it right away!

J_S
 
Let's see what happens?

J_S

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Pelt said:
About the two above statements, we could get tied up in semantics, where some people would say that they don't "predict," but they "react." Or you can't "predict," or you can't "know" where the market is going. Ya of course... but for the purpose of this discussion, let's all just agree that for you to earn a profit, you have to close out a purchase at a higher price than you bought. So in that way every trade is a prediction, guess, or theory as to where the market might be at some point in the future.
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Some trend followers claim they don't predict but, as you say, arguably that is just semantics.

The fact is, whenever you place a long (or short) bet it is because you think price will be higher (or lower) at some point in the future. To achieve profitability in the long run, you either have to (A) be right more often than you are wrong or (B) like trend followers, make more money on the winners than you forfeit on the losers.

Now, if you could do both (A) and (B)...
 
The Obvious said:
...(A) be right more often than you are wrong or ...
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Well, comes down to what is required cause of how much one risks, my risk is always greater than reward when I day trade...so in my case it is necessary.

The Obvious said:
..(B) like trend followers, make more money on the winners than you forfeit on the losers. ...
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Since 90% of my trades are against some degree of trend, trades with trend at beginnings are seldom consistent. My style of scalping is making profits on noise that has reoccurring patterns, reversion to the mean or mean to the reversion, which is trend or can be deep retracements.
 
Handle123 said:
Well, comes down to what is required cause of how much one risks, my risk is always greater than reward when I day trade...so in my case it is necessary.



Since 90% of my trades are against some degree of trend, trades with trend at beginnings are seldom consistent. My style of scalping is making profits on noise that has reoccurring patterns, reversion to the mean or mean to the reversion, which is trend or can be deep retracements.
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HANDLE123...you and I trade very much alike when day trading!
 
Changed my mind last night and went for 1 more week out on ES bear put.

Bought 100 vxx.

Done a spread trade with short NQ and long ES.

I wonder what will happen next, as I haven't a clue!

J_S

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