Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[Simples]

Rant mode on

On starting over: What's the alternative? If you never start over, you can never really progress meaningfully! It's not like you can build an EMA out of an SMA (WMA - almost), or that market profile will easily expand into a linear regression line. Part of our curse, but also the boon, is that we can always start over and there are infinite possibilities in how to interpret markets! It's sort of an infinite arsenal against the almost infinite possibilities markets may challenge us with.

That we in school and institutions never learnt to start over, speaks volumes of those sorts of environments, about ie. the false projection of success that was tried imposed on us. Try to be more like those who discovered and invented before the textbooks were written. They got famous and successful for NOT aping after others, and they took risks, which by definition involves uncertainty.

Now don't get me started on the virtues of being lazy...

Rant mode off

So if you feel like you're always starting over: Kudos to you! Most people simply will not/cannot do it!

 

[Unequivocaltim]

Enjoy your concept, simples.

 

[SkyChef]

Hi guys. Long time no see.

For the benefit of the sufferers, not for the lazy-ass.

It all comes down to this: Consistently do what you know and know what you do.

The 1st basic truth of understanding the market (any market), is that w/o any edge at all, you have 50% chance to win or lose when putting down a bet. Any time. This is a very significant in term of win/lost, risk management. Now find your edge (whatever it is), you chance of winning is also increased proportionally, hence the term weighted coin.

The 2nd basic truth is know yourself. Read Mark Douglas "Trading in the zone" to get a glimpse of what it's all about. "Paradigm Shift" by Yvan Byeajee is fine if you really want to go that way.

The 3rd basic truth to acquire knowledge for an adult is "Don't ask a question unless you know what you are looking for". By the time you know what you are looking for, you already know what & where to look for the answer.

--------------------

My edge is a trend system following w/ risk management embedded within the system (where, risk/reward, targets, etc). It only works w/ heavy institutional footprints so there are some limits to what & when I trade. So far my losses (all small relative to account size & trade risk) are all related to counter trend trades which are awesome, when you think about it.

I'm thankful that J_S & RN left enough clues behind pertained to their perspectives of the market. I think I rarely asked them a question, if any, because at the time, I had no clue what I'm looking for.

Chef.

Now back to lurking & musing.

 

[Redneck]

Context

The 1st basic truth of understanding the market (any market), is that w/o any edge at all, you have 50% chance to win or lose when putting down a bet.

Trader - w/o an edge ("should have a 50% chance")


Any trader

Shorting in a raging UT
Buying in a raging DT
Range trading after price pulled back, in a range, then B/O in the direction of the original move
B/O trading when price in an established range
Trend trading when there is none

And I could go on

Would tend to disagree with your 50% summation CF


=========================================

I have had the most amazing winning streak: one Month, no losing day, only 3 (very small) losing trades

Don't spread that around - some think you're nuts / spreading bullshit

I'm not one of them of course

A caution - don't focus on the results - keep your attention on the process & routine - on managing each trade..., independently of all other trades - on your focus.., patience..., discipline - and context (more on this in a minute)

And all this by just rethinking the meaning of BLASH and SHABL, ADR and the Box...

This gig in 95 to 97% cerebral (mental)..., 3 to 5% skills / tools

Keep thinking.., off hrs of course..., during trading.., shut off the brain and trade

Have I discovered the Obvious? Who knows and, more importantly, who cares?

Still, my approach might fail tomorrow, who knows?

As long as you consistently trade within price's context - your approach..., whatever it might be - will continue working

Context

The immediate

The longer term (which can be of a TF that makes sense to you / your eye / your approach)

The overall

Stay within the last two..., trading the first..., via your approach

Keep the trades that breakdown small

Exploit the shit outta the trades that work - to the best of you skill (and don't worry about the money left on the table - it'll be there next trade)

It all good

but WOW, I am amazed as how simple trading can be...

As simple as a trader will allow it to be


Most Excellent Sir

RN

 

[Redneck]

Screw all this bs diagrams and diaphragms .

How the hell else do people convey thoughts..., ask questions..., learn..., improve

Hows bouts this?
2-1, 3-1 really doesn't work these days cause of the volatility.

This hasn't been an environment of volatility

It move price..., lure in a side and trap em..., squeeze that side.., lure in the other side - do it all over

With a bias of up

RN

 

[Vindago]

Thanks RN

Don't spread that around - some think you're nuts / spreading bullshit
You are probably right...
I'm not one of them of course

A caution - don't focus on the results - keep your attention on the process & routine - on managing each trade..., independently of all other trades - on your focus.., patience..., discipline - and context (more on this in a minute)

Absolutely! whenever I move my focus from the process to the money I get greedy (like I am up 180$, see PA is giving signs to get out but I fix on getting 200$...end result I don't even get the 180$. So I totally agree that the focus must stay on the process.


This gig in 95 to 97% cerebral (mental)..., 3 to 5% skills / tools

in more than one sense... I am learning to follow PA like an analog computer, no indicators of any type just MTF, and use of Fibs in a very unusual way...
Keep thinking.., off hrs of course..., during trading.., shut off the brain and trade



As long as you consistently trade within price's context - your approach..., whatever it might be - will continue working

Context

The immediate

The longer term (which can be of a TF that makes sense to you / your eye / your approach)

The overall

Stay within the last two..., trading the first..., via your approach YEP

Keep the trades that breakdown small working on this...

Exploit the shit outta the trades that work - to the best of you skill (and don't worry about the money left on the table - it'll be there next trade)
Like for loser trades I try to keep a certain limited tolerance on witing so when I am satisfied with the gain and start feeling nervous about a reversal I get out an put the money in the bank even if I end up leaving some on the plate.
It all good

As simple as a trader will allow it to be

Most Excellent Sir

RN[/QUOTE]

 

[SkyChef]

RN,

The simplicity of my statement is when you put down a bet, only 2 things can happen: that market is against you or is with you. That's 50% chance right there w/o any edge and as simple w/o any complication of any variables (trending, price action etc), for any variable cited by you will be offset by counter variable (partial derivative). Once we start adding variables i.e. edges, (recognize trending is an edge), that probability will change significantly but will never approach 100%.

BTW, it's the outcome of the bet not the profit or loss of that bet because profit & loss also have quite few variables attached. So if the win/lose of my statement is associated w/ profit, then it's my bad to use the wrong wording. For me that 50% chance is a very significant foundation to base forward thinking of trader's success vs failure.

Chef.

 

[Simples]

RN,

The simplicity of my statement is when you put down a bet, only 2 things can happen: that market is against you or is with you. That's 50% chance right there w/o any edge and as simple w/o any complication of any variables (trending, price action etc), for any variable cited by you will be offset by counter variable (partial derivative). Once we start adding variables i.e. edges, (recognize trending is an edge), that probability will change significantly but will never approach 100%.

BTW, it's the outcome of the bet not the profit or loss of that bet because profit & loss also have quite few variables attached. So if the win/lose of my statement is associated w/ profit, then it's my bad to use the wrong wording. For me that 50% chance is a very significant foundation to base forward thinking of trader's success vs failure.

Chef.

The word "chance" is usually associated with odds and probability. Better wording: To every trade there are only two outcomes: Either you win, or you lose.

Now, the odds of you winning is initially very slim in trading, considering adverse volatility, spread, broker fees, costs, etc. So even if there are only two outcomes, every trader need to work on skewing the odds in their favour despite initially having the odds in their disfavour.

One way to overcome this, is like you say, focusing on separating outcomes: winners from losers.
Another way is using time, as time may heal many wounds.

That everybody has their own way of trading and thinking about trading, makes it harder to share thoughts about it

 

[J_Smith]

The word "chance" is usually associated with odds and probability. Better wording: To every trade there are only two outcomes: Either you win, or you lose.

Now, the odds of you winning is initially very slim in trading, considering adverse volatility, spread, broker fees, costs, etc. So even if there are only two outcomes, every trader need to work on skewing the odds in their favour despite initially having the odds in their disfavour.

One way to overcome this, is like you say, focusing on separating outcomes: winners from losers.
Another way is using time, as time may heal many wounds.

That everybody has their own way of trading and thinking about trading, makes it harder to share thoughts about it

You may not know it, but you have hit the nail on the head, and not in the way you think!

If one takes heed of what others say, in relation to how it can help one make money trading, you will then start to realize that what RN said is 100% correct, in that, this game is all about using your head the right way, and that does not mean you have to know all about patterns and formations, for, they are but ways to form your thoughts of what price might do next.

Once this is really known, and believed, then, it will become very obvious that you MUST stay on the bus, and if you start getting off at every second stop, you will never get to your destination!

Common sense is really not that common!

Can you spot the simple concept in the simple chart below?

J_S

 

[Simples]

You may not know it, but you have hit the nail on the head, and not in the way you think!
If one takes heed of what others say, in relation to how it can help one make money trading, you will then start to realize that what RN said is 100% correct, in that, this game is all about using your head the right way, and that does not mean you have to know all about patterns and formations, for, they are but ways to form your thoughts of what price might do next.
Once this is really known, and believed, then, it will become very obvious that you MUST stay on the bus, and if you start getting off at every second stop, you will never get to your destination!
Common sense is really not that common!
Can you spot the simple concept in the simple chart below?
J_S
View attachment 163083

It's about the hardest part of trading I believe. How much should you give back to the markets, and how soon should you let go of a potential loser? With all the risks and costs in trading, we are all losers from the start, or delusional. So you need alot of conviction to stay long enough in a potential winner to gain from it. This is incidentally what makes delusional winners win in the beginning, but without realizing what they're really doing, while taking on all the risk in the world.

You only need one ticket on the right bus at the right time to get somewhere (percentage-wise), and you may buy more tickets along the way even. Just make sure you don't overpay or overstay. So keep the cost small, and DO expect setbacks and adversities along the way.

I'm fully aware, but not necessarily in position to exploit it fully yet, which seems to require abandonment of "common" sense!