Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[Vindago]

Glad you see it that way VO.

So, to get to the bottom of this obvious thread, for once and for all, time to get back on topic.

In a short few words, what do you now think, after recent discussions, what the obvious really is, after that we can discuss why the obvious, is not so obvious, for most.

J_S

JS,

Obvious:

• as a wanna be successful trader I need to put in the work needed to figure out what and how to trade (work and experience), this cannot be taught.
• as a wanna be successful trader I need to protect my account, so start slow and safe (i.e. trade small, risk smaller)

there are other obvious things about trading, for instance that price move up and down (obvious, but generally overlooked even if it is critically important) and that there are very good reasons why.

this is the basic for me all the rest is fine tuning...

 

[J_Smith]

Correct. He's writing and selling trading material, and teaching/mentoring people. He's got a few thousand twitter followers. Last year was the first year, in 8 years, that he made any money but from teaching not trading.

On the face of it, his credentials sound kosher until you delve a bit deeper. People just assume that, because he's been full time trading for 8 years, he must be successful. Whereas the reality is, he's been living off the equity in his house.

The funny thing is he's a really nice, decent guy, not your obvious snake oil salesman, and he probably genuinely believes he's helping people.

Well, it just proves, they is still one born every day!

J_S

 

[Simples]

Glad you see it that way VO.

So, to get to the bottom of this obvious thread, for once and for all, time to get back on topic.

In a short few words, what do you now think, after recent discussions, what the obvious really is, after that we can discuss why the obvious, is not so obvious, for most.

J_S

I like your train of thought JS. Refraining from telling people exactly what to do goes hand-in-hand with this thread - which is probably not just a coincidence This thread is, it seems, intentionally uninformative. This may become liberating for the few who put in the required work. This is why I often give people questions, not "answers", just to raise a topic from another perspective, hopefully avoiding conclusions and hard claims. Yes, such questions may sometimes be uncomfortable to ponder, but that is not the intention - just a by-product.

What is obvious, but not so obvious. For myself, this is easy, but I doubt I have the "one and only answer". Indeed, if there is such an answer, then actually, it really goes against this thread's main body of historical records!

I'll bite however: What's obvious is that tradable price really only ever go up and down, and that for trading, this is how we can make or lose money. To gain we need to follow the price movements, while minimizing all forms of risks from various adversities. What makes this non-obvious however, is our obsession with graphs, and that they somehow embody an "upper boundary", which of course is fundamentally false for price. Also, most people find it too uncomfortable to really spend the required efforts to think and analyse for themselves, in order to attain such realizations for their own good. Generally speaking, most people act as gullible sheep, no matter how much intellectual capital or even wisdom they may command.

So, what's obvious is that every trader wants to make easy money by following price changes. What makes it non-obvious, is that the money you earn trading will be the hardest easy money you'll ever find. Most people avoid discomfort and lack proper motivation or stamina to work through it, so what's obvious becomes non-obvious. Obviously, those who succeeds by exploiting flaws in the market, will not share such knowledge that may be minimized by other's trading the same pattern at the same time.

It's a mouthfull, and probably, someone has an elegant one-liner for all this

 

[The Obvious]

Well, it just proves, they is still one born every day!

J_S

His followers probably think he's living the dream. 8 years full time trading and not having to work for anyone else.

Actually, trying to make a living out of trading is probably a mistake many people make. Replacing a normal wage with trading is very difficult, especially if you haven't got a large amount of capital. It leads to taking bigger risks, and/or overtrading, and we know how that usually ends.

 

[J_Smith]

I like your train of thought JS. Refraining from telling people exactly what to do goes hand-in-hand with this thread - which is probably not just a coincidence This thread is, it seems, intentionally uninformative. This may become liberating for the few who put in the required work. This is why I often give people questions, not "answers", just to raise a topic from another perspective, hopefully avoiding conclusions and hard claims. Yes, such questions may sometimes be uncomfortable to ponder, but that is not the intention - just a by-product.

What is obvious, but not so obvious. For myself, this is easy, but I doubt I have the "one and only answer". Indeed, if there is such an answer, then actually, it really goes against this thread's main body of historical records!

I'll bite however: What's obvious is that tradable price really only ever go up and down, and that for trading, this is how we can make or lose money. To gain we need to follow the price movements, while minimizing all forms of risks from various adversities. What makes this non-obvious however, is our obsession with graphs, and that they somehow embody an "upper boundary", which of course is fundamentally false for price. Also, most people find it too uncomfortable to really spend the required efforts to think and analyse for themselves, in order to attain such realizations for their own good. Generally speaking, most people act as gullible sheep, no matter how much intellectual capital or even wisdom they may command.

So, what's obvious is that every trader wants to make easy money by following price changes. What makes it non-obvious, is that the money you earn trading will be the hardest easy money you'll ever find. Most people avoid discomfort and lack proper motivation or stamina to work through it, so what's obvious becomes non-obvious. Obviously, those who succeeds by exploiting flaws in the market, will not share such knowledge that may be minimized by other's trading the same pattern at the same time.

It's a mouthfull, and probably, someone has an elegant one-liner for all this

If you were to sum up all your points, which of course are correct, what would the simple few words be?

I would use 5 words, and for me, these 5 words have made all the difference in seeing the wood for the trees.

In my very early days, as another nick, I actually started a thread with 4 of the words, the last 4, and I am adding the 5th one here to make it more clear.

I did not realize at the time, the importance of this thread I started, but very quickly did after my big loss one morning, after not getting much sleep the night before

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

His followers probably think he's living the dream. 8 years full time trading and not having to work for anyone else.

Actually, trying to make a living out of trading is probably a mistake many people make. Replacing a normal wage with trading is very difficult, especially if you haven't got a large amount of capital. It leads to taking bigger risks, and/or overtrading, and we know how that usually ends.

Yes. i done it once, even packed up my job, but let's just say I was lucky I had some cash.

Worst thing you can do, for who in their right mind would take a job, where you do not know, not only if you will get paid, but you will actually have to pay others for the privilege of working!

Another one born every day, comes to mind, again!

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

JS,

Obvious:

• as a wanna be successful trader I need to put in the work needed to figure out what and how to trade (work and experience), this cannot be taught.
• as a wanna be successful trader I need to protect my account, so start slow and safe (i.e. trade small, risk smaller)

there are other obvious things about trading, for instance that price move up and down (obvious, but generally overlooked even if it is critically important) and that there are very good reasons why.

this is the basic for me all the rest is fine tuning...

Again VO, all correct, but the essesence of this whole thread, I think, can be summed up in 5 words.

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

A side note, and I am not posting any more live trades, reason why explained, but I have added to existing positions, for 2 reasons.

1. Because I can.

2. Because it has worked out OK for me so far, and even if I lose this time, I am still up on what I have already made, and I know, providing I don't stop trading, it will work out again.

However, I will never exceed my max drawdown, to prevent me from overtrading, and getting caught out in case the big black swan decides to pay us a visit!

J_S

 

[DDR]

We should just trade each others trading plan, if losses result it won't be my fault.
No better way to see if your systems works or not

 

[J_Smith]

Twas a bit of a sarcastic ploy but the idea was to remove the emotion by trading his plan for him. Never mind bit off topic perhaps.

I thought so, but it is a valid point, but not exactly the way you put it.

I know a person, who, can take $5K from someone else, and turn it into $75K in a bout 4 to 6 months.

Let him at his own money, and he can not do anywhere near the same returns.

He has done this several times, not just once.

I am not making it up, it is a fact.

J_S