Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Mysteron said:
Equality, Evenly Distributed, BalanceD.

I expect that everyone posting on this thread has their own horror stories about their own foolishness and lack of judgement - I certainly have - its quite normal I think.
More...

Balanced is the best term, as it will allow some of the others be got easily.

Btw, these are not really needed for casual trading, they are just an advanced way of interpreting price action, most of which I have not seen in any textbooks so far, and I am not saying they are not in a book somewhere, but I am saying that I have never seen some of them in any book that I have come across, and I have come across a lot of books over the years.

I have seen HWB mentioned in several books.

Of course everyone has their own problems, as no one is perfect, nor can ever be.

I am looking at some charts here, and it is so obvious in hindsight what price was more than likely to do, so, if it is obvious in hindsight, then all that is required is action in real time, and that means that everyone who is missing out, is just not taking action.

Of course, there may be many valid reasons why a person can not take action, but if money is not the main reason, as in sufficient capital, then everything else can be put down to laziness, as one can learn to do anything, if one just commits to some hard work, and use common sense when listening to others in relation to the best ways to do this and that.

We will never stop going around in circles, and even though it has now been mentioned many times, by several people, what exactly is required to make money trading, most will still fail to put in the effort to do what needs to be done, and the only person that can solve that problem, is, yourself!

J_S
 
  • Like
Reactions: DDR
Having reviewed the CL chart, I am now thinking that CL could well move down some more in the short term, and unless it gets back above 31.58, then to me, the odds of more down are high.

I have bought one call, and will not buy anymore unless it goes above 31.58 (I will close if it moves up a good bit fast, using a GTC limit order) and then pulls back, or drops quickly to around the 29.50 level.

Crude is a bastard to trade, and I would never trade it outright, as it is far too risky, but is ideal for options, as a low priced option can easily double in value the same day when CL moves fast, which is a regular occurrence. Picking strikes too far out of the money is useless, as a big move in CL will not result in a big move in option price, hence you check the delta to make sure you know your ratio, and you can then set a target to get out, and not let your profit disappear in front of your eyes as they quickly reverse it.

The right thing to do, of course, is to have your puts ready for when the big up move happens, which is my next step, as if you think you should be exiting, then you should also be trading the opposite direction, for if not, why are you exiting the trade!

Of course, the reality is that it can do anything, but if I do not do the trades, then I will not make any money, and if I get this one wrong, I know my max loss, and will get ready for the next one, and so I keep doing the same old thing, over and over!

J_S

Screen Shot 02-06-16 at 11.36 PM.PNG


I have checked the hourly for confirmation, and the level is 31.50, which is close enough to 31.58

Line in the sand for CL is 31.50

Have a feeling I jumped the gun on this one, and that is because I did not look at the charts in detail before placing the trade, but only time will tell what actually happens.

Screen Shot 02-07-16 at 12.21 AM.PNG


 
Last edited:
About this thread, I started reading it last week and although the title was obscure then, it is very clear now, you see we had to wait for J_S to let up on the riddles in order to get the real purpose to shine through : )
But yes it is a worthy thread and I hope all that start to read reach the same conclusion I have.
Turning things around will not be a walk in the park but the starting point is the most important a prompting to start is all that matters. It's no wonder 95% fail in this game after we are brainwashed from birth to think and act a certain way. Only the strong minded will turn the tanker around. The time from the key posters is much appreciated it is not lost time I will assure you.

"Discipline is the rejection of instant gratification in favor of something better and higher."
"Be careful of impatience; it leads to regret and unhappiness."
"Even a little self control can save you a lot of money."
 
Last edited:
I want to make a specific point here, The fool is the emotional, impulsive trader that has no trading plan or method he religiously follows.
He operates with randomness therefore never producing the consistent outcome, the main factor that makes us even greater fools with trading is that money is involved. The answer to releasing this grip is to trade with smaller size. Let me explain this very important point, or let me first ask you," how many times have you entered a trade but closed it due to the negative amount getting too big to stomach. THEN the fking thing went in your direction after all !
This is what I'm talking about, trading small, you would have been right. Now multiply how many time this has happened ! 10's if not 100's of time right ! And this is called GREED the trading houses are counting on good ole human behavior to continually fill their pockets with your hard earned CASH the markets whipsaw the markets do their thing to rip your money out of your account over and over until you stop being the fool.
After getting your trading plan together that has an edge, you then trade small to then stay in the trade long enough to at least have a fking chance. Before you were just self sabotaging yourself on an unconscious level before. (Trading too big) The amazing thing about trading small with reasonable sized and not too tight stops is that you then actually have a chance to add into the position when it goes in your favour thus compounding small gains which then leads you to be consistent which then matches what the pros do. Pros are not smarter than you and I they just have better habits. The passive approach to trading will win because the markets can pull you down, tire you out, frustrate the hell out of you! Trading small is not giving a shit and not giving your money away either. If your on to a good thing and you are holding you can in fact make up for previous losses with this one position. That's why you have to keep your losses small so that you can have these micro trend trades that can clean up prior losses. More on this later. The other thing that can happen is after you do become consistent you then will have built up your arsenal so that when a special set of circumstances align in the market you can THEN slightly increase position size to provide a reward or gift trade for the prior discipline you demonstrated. Patience does provide better opportunities.
 
Last edited:
A little introspective thinking DD

Good Stuff Sir:)


DDR said:
how many times have you entered a trade but closed it due to the negative amount getting too big to stomach. THEN the fking thing went in your direction after all !
More...

In the beginning - lots

Now - still many times - the difference - I simply get back in and ride along

============

This is a very slippery..., and dangerous slope though DD

Never hang onto a loser - because as sure as hell.., and soon as you do - it'll rip against your position like a scalded dog - and there you sit - fucked..., in an unacceptably large loser

I've done this more times than I can count - but not any more

Don't go there

========================

Amount risking per trade..., and..., the actual amount lost per trade - always keep em small - period

Getting back in.., and the associated fees / comish - negligible

Only thing needed to overcome - is the mental



But this comes with a huge warning as well

There is a sweet spot of entering..., exiting..., reentering

And one never wants to travel over the the other extreme - where they end up over trading

Volatile (violent back and forth)..., / tight range environments - come to mind

=======================

Wish I had black and white answers..., this is trading however..., so except for the very few - there are none

RN
 
With regard to my post #4954 2 post's prior ....
Trading small is a must until you master the stage called consistency, then guess what you can then size up. But beware this is also the time when most fk up. You see if it did happen the ego was still too strong. What should have come up with you through the ranks is the ability to stay humble. The quality to continue to admit when your wrong (cutting the loser quickly).
It's not rocket science keeping the losses smaller than the wins.
But why does it happen ?
lol, its the human in you ..... the way your wired to try and be right, or to prove that your right.
That's what they say you got to think like a machine in the markets or a better one is,
"Good traders know the markets Great traders know themselves"
 
Well DR, you have summed up what is actually required, but do take heed of what RN says.

In the past, I made real good money trading small, but I was selling options, and even though the trades were small, when shit hit the fan, I lost nearly all of it back it one day.

2 reasons why, one was I overtraded, as in had too many small positions open, due to greed, second was killer, in that I did not fully understand at the time, for with every put I had sold, I had protection with a lower strike put, and my loss was thus capped.

I had a bad broker, as they should have told me the day I rang up to take my 17K sterling loss, that I was close to max loss, but still had a month or so to recover. Next few days saw a rally, which would have saved me bout 10K sterling.

So, you must know the market you trade, otherwise you are still a fool, and even though winning, some day you will get caught.

Overall, you are on the right track, but need to exhibit control of max risk per trade, and there are several ways to do this.

More later.

J_S
 
Sounds a similar story, there is a difference though. This time I'm shit scared of the market, you'd better believe that I will making dam sure that every box is ticked and every detail checked before I enter the next trade. This is the advantage of trading longer time frames. My calculations from past observations is that in the market I trade it takes 3 to 4 days to confirm the entry and one should hold for the next 12 - 15 days selling into the end. Not an exact science but used as a guideline.
The impulsiveness has been all but killed off replaced with respect, respect for mother market. You know that gal.
 
There is one 4 letter word, that, when used can result in correct timing, which is the essence of good trading.

It has been mentioned several times in this thread, by several people.

RN, even though by his own admission, is a dumb ass redneck:D, but he is a master at using the 4 letter word, and I have no doubt it accounts for the most of his profits.

Using this 4 letter word, also inherently reduces the risk with every trade you take!

J_S
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top