Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?
- Thread starter nysestocks
- Start date
If someone wants to believe that financial markets are random, just because some "educated" people decide to write up some so called "abstracts", then I say let them at it
If my memory serves me correct, was there not a big investigation launched in the past into OIL being held in massive containers to change the supply / demand situation - was that a random act!
IMHO, what most fail to see, is that it really does not matter one little bit, as all you have to do to extract money from the market is BLASH & SHABL, and its cousins - while at the same time "KNOWING" that the next time you "RISK" your money their is a good chance that you "MIGHT" lose some, or all of your "RISK AMOUNT" - so, it is "WISE" to not risk all of your money at the "ONE TIME", or else, you might just get caught up in a "random move" that has gone against you and be one "SORRY BAS*ARD"
J_S
And don't forget the butter mountains and wine lakes that occured as a result of the EU Common Agrigicultural Policy of the 1980s - which was basically a rigged market for the benefit of farmers, especially the French.
http://www.politics.co.uk/reference/common-agricultural-policy
Nothing random about that. But at times price charts do seem to display a random walk, which I presume to be the result of a large amount of individual traders/institutions or whatever that follow their own agendas, combining to produce a random like price behaviour. Not really random, but the interactions of the multitude of deterministic processes of individual traders and algorithms are so complex that a random model fits well. At times though it seems that major players dominate price direction in a way that is clear, and it is those times when it is best to trade.
If you hadn't asked that backwards I would say $60 : $1200
I think the obvious is not so obvious because it's SO obvious and simple that it gets dismissed.
That's my answer to the OP
That's my answer to the OP
It is very simple, actually!
please check in case i am wrong!
Step 1.
Start = $10,000 (risk money)
Risk = n ($100)
Trades = 100n
Losers = -40n
Winners = +60n
End = 100n -40n +60n = 120n ($12,000)
Step 2.
Start = $12,000
Risk = n ($120)
Trades = 100n
Losers = -40n
Winners = +60n
End = 100n -40n +60n = 120n ($14,400)
==========================
Return = 20%
Compound Formula
P = $10,000
R = 20 %
W = 10 periods
Result N = 10,000 (1+20/100)power10
= 10,000 (6.191...)
= $61,910
Gain = 61,910 - 10,000 = 51,910
Errors = 20%
Adjustment = 51,910 – 10,382 =
Net Gain = $41,528
ROI = 415 %
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Also, is it possible that you can KNOW what the obvious is, but not understand how to take advantage of it?
I asked this question a while back... Any input?
10,000 risk capital
100 max risk per bet..100 max gain per bet
55 wins
45 losses
55 - 45 = 10%
Result N = 10,000 (1+10/100)power10
= 10,000 (2.59...) = 25,900
10 period gain = 15,900
5 period gain = 6,105
2 period gain = 2,100
once u do the math u can change everything around to suit ur circumstances..the math does not lie..55/45 would be considered a very bad "system"..lol
100 max risk per bet..100 max gain per bet
55 wins
45 losses
55 - 45 = 10%
Result N = 10,000 (1+10/100)power10
= 10,000 (2.59...) = 25,900
10 period gain = 15,900
5 period gain = 6,105
2 period gain = 2,100
once u do the math u can change everything around to suit ur circumstances..the math does not lie..55/45 would be considered a very bad "system"..lol
DT, as follows.
T = Trend (identify)
S = Signal (wait)
T = Timing (act)
Think about it - you must first identify a trend (T), then, once identified you must then wait for a signal (S), and, once signaled you must then look for the best (least risky) time (T) to enter, and act!
I don't know about anyone else, but this makes perfect sense to me.
Have a look at what Gann said many years ago - I am not suggesting that you have to go learning all about Gann and his methods (drawing angles on a chart to identify entry and exit levels), but what I am saying is that most of what he said makes perfect sense!
Look at the first line in this extract - Time = Money!
J_S
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