Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[Nemesis]

It is very easy see where price has been, it is not so easy to know where it might go next!

To daytrade sndk, additional charts will obviously be required, but it is no harm to look at the big picture first to see where it is in relation to where it has been.

What is the current trend for sndk daily and "what defines" that trend?

J_S

View attachment 157682

The notion of a trend may seem clear but it is in fact vague, hence this statement which is reasonable but not precise:
A trend is the tendency for price to continue in the same direction with respect to a particular timescale.

SNDK appears to be trending down, according to the yellow line, from Dec 2014 to Aug 2015 even though price closed higher than the open in Feb, Apr, May and Jul. Also there is a HH in Mar and a HL in Feb and also in May against the trend. The human brain is good at taking a fuzzy concept such as trend and making a judgement as to whether a trend is valid or not, while ignoring the details that don't fit.

If you are looking for a pricise definition of trend then there can never be a unique answer. Some definitions would involve stronger criteria than others. The stongest most precise definition of an uptrend that I can imagine is that a series of successive price bars have higher highs, higher lows and with close greater than the open. According to that definition SNDK has been trending up for three days.

 

[J_Smith]

Amongst other reasons, I would suggest: herd mentality.

Where does that come from? It would come from a deep seated cynicism with regards to the human condition, human nature, the inability to think for ourselves or to question dogma / authority.

That being said, my wife often says I'm a pessimist. I tell her I'm a realist

Education maybe..or more importantly..the methods used to educate!

If you brainwash a person at a very early age, then this "brainwashing" will of course be passed down from family to family, as that is the way families work, well, most "normal" families.

Just because your parents were ignorant, and I mean that not in a rude manner, as I applied
it to my parents as well - ignorance meaning lack of supporting facts to back up theories - that does not mean you have to stay ignorant for the rest of your life!

Monkey see..Monkey do

To break out of the zoo, and not let silly, stupid, idiotic theories ruin your life, then you must be willing and able to go against the majority, no matter what the consequences, for, if you always do what you know to be true, then you really have nothing to worry about - unless of course you have some lunatic who has a knife to your throat, and in that case you must do whatever it takes to get out of that situation..which..btw..you should not have let yourself get into in the first place..for "whatever reason"!

J_S

 

[damnpenguins]

Hence the frequent reflections on Montaigne's ideas throughout the thread.

Understood.

 

[J_Smith]

The notion of a trend may seem clear but it is in fact vague, hence this statement which is reasonable but not precise:
A trend is the tendency for price to continue in the same direction with respect to a particular timescale.

SNDK appears to be trending down, according to the yellow line, from Dec 2014 to Aug 2015 even though price closed higher than the open in Feb, Apr, May and Jul. Also there is a HH in Mar and a HL in Feb and also in May against the trend. The human brain is good at taking a fuzzy concept such as trend and making a judgement as to whether a trend is valid or not, while ignoring the details that don't fit.

View attachment 157699

If you are looking for a pricise definition of trend then there can never be a unique answer. Some definitions would involve stronger criteria than others. The stongest most precise definition of an uptrend that I can imagine is that a series of successive price bars have higher highs, higher lows and with close greater than the open. According to that definition SNDK has been trending up for three days.

View attachment 157700

A valid post.
If sndk is now in a trend up, which it is, then why not just buy now, for, the trend is your friend, is it not!

We will forget bout daytrading only for now, as you have raised some valid points.

J_S

 

[Michael.jstocks]

Once you know the obvious, GOOD money *can* be made.

 

[J_Smith]

Hence the frequent reflections on Montaigne's ideas throughout the thread.

Understood.

Yes..but how many really "get it", same as in trading..very very few!

History is the best teacher of all, but very few even bother to search, as they are only focused on what they have been "shown" by those who fail to see that what they "show" is not the best way, and was "developed" centuries ago by those in power..the minority..to control those with no power..the majority!

Trading is the same, for, how can it be any different!

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

Once you know the obvious, GOOD money *can* be made.

MJ, once you (general) realize that you are a fool, and are being hoodwinked by those with the power and money, then, and only then will you start to see the "markets" for what they really are - a wealth transfer mechanism for those in the know.

Hell, even the communists have now coped on, just look at china and how History has once again "repeated" itself!

No race is immune from "power and domination"..just make sure u understand so that you are not getting bananas when you could be having grapes

J_S

 

[damnpenguins]

Back to the human condition then; there is comfort in boundaries, in dogma etc. Not progress mind you, simply comfort. One knows their place and as long as they don't make waves they are left alone.

This could lead to a lengthy diatribe on religion, governance etc that would lead this thread nowhere. So I'll abstain

I agree completely with the premise that the vast majority of traders apply the same limitations to trading. Garbage in, Garbage out and all that. Hell - I am one of them, I used Wyckoff's teachings as the basis of everything I do.

But saying that; this thread keeps niggling at the back of my mind. Like an ear worm from a song you hear first thing in the morning. This thread has been an amazing intellectual exercise btw, call it a guilty pastime.....

Redneck calls himself a dumb redneck, guess I am a simple minded Aussie. But I'd give my right eye to be has as dumb as that ol' redneck

Wish I knew the obvious, guess my limited grey matter keeps getting in the way....

I'll stop butting in now. Back to the splendid ignorance of being comfortably numb

 

[J_Smith]

be no fool..use the tool
dat no pc..will ever be
be one of kind..open mind
den u will see..what not it be

when u stare..do not glare
price will go..where others show
to increase odd..use the nod
look and SEE..use TST

I will repeat..while taking heat
for i do know..what others show
reason be such..i not think much
as too much thought..get u naught

u tink i jest..and act the best
but no u dis..it is no piss
de words i say..are true today
as in the past..the hav stood fast

so y the riddles..and the giggles
y not just say..the words today
reason be..u are not me
words will stink..unless u think

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

Back to the human condition then; there is comfort in boundaries, in dogma etc. Not progress mind you, simply comfort. One knows their place and as long as they don't make waves they are left alone.

This could lead to a lengthy diatribe on religion, governance etc that would lead this thread nowhere. So I'll abstain

I agree completely with the premise that the vast majority of traders apply the same limitations to trading. Garbage in, Garbage out and all that. Hell - I am one of them, I used Wyckoff's teachings as the basis of everything I do.

But saying that; this thread keeps niggling at the back of my mind. Like an ear worm from a song you hear first thing in the morning. This thread has been an amazing intellectual exercise btw, call it a guilty pastime.....

Redneck calls himself a dumb redneck, guess I am a simple minded Aussie. But I'd give my right eye to be has as dumb as that ol' redneck

Wish I knew the obvious, guess my limited grey matter keeps getting in the way....

I'll stop butting in now. Back to the splendid ignorance of being comfortably numb

I am not sure about debating religion, for, anything that helps one open their mind and improve their lot, is never a bad thing!

It is also very hard to change centuries of brainwashing, but, the older one gets the more in tune with reality they become, probably due to the "fact" that you don't have as long left as you had when you were younger

J_S