Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

I am not sure if you meant that it was handed to me by GO, but I actually got it last year after hundreds of password tries. :)

Another thing that might be interesting, or not, to look at when looking at bars is the percent (or number of points) of a bar that overlap with the previous bars. In sharp moves, there is not much overlapping. (as a consequence, in overlapping/ranging areas the close of the area will be not too far from the open). Of course, this is visually easy to see, but observing the overlapping percentage can give some mathematical confirmation.

Another thing among others that I am observing now, is that we may consider that the Markets is quite steady in his behaviour when not disturbed, but when MM (or Big Money ?) enter the Market, that will create distortion (V or A moves) and after their operating the Market will somehow resume his previous steady path, as you can see on these examples below. I am not sure yet if it can be of any help for analysis, but maybe it can help to better identify the players and their agenda. It is not always as obvious as in my examples below, but it is to give an idea. (I just used the channels to see more easily the similitudes between the trend before and after the "move" ) I highlighted only few.

2958ns1.png

eun5eg.png

1492g7k.png


The most important thing on the chart might be the empty space, not the bars. The empty space draws the bars, the bars do not draw themselves on the empty space (if it makes any sense :D ) But how can we analyse that empty space, what can we do with it ?
What is happening here ?
And then, what can we do with Time and this empty space ?
These are true questions, I don't have any answer unfortunately.

The tiny realisation I had changes the way to see at Markets, but is not enough for me to make the big leap. It's more like having only the toes on the other side :p

030985

Remember that I've lost my marbles so please don't take anything I say too literally. Well done for cracking the password, it seems I was mistaken about GO.

Markets tend to move as a reaction to news but I've often noticed significant price movement prior to news announcements, possibly because a few know the news in advance or more likely its a case of positions being closed or opened in anticipation. Sometimes prices suddenly move for no apparent news related reason, which I presume is due to a major player dominating a market for a short period of time until a large buy or sell campaign completes, resulting in a shift to a new level, sometimes followed by price decaying back.
 
B22,

Of the 4 lines on the chart, which 2 do you think might be the most important, and why?

White
Purple
Yellow
Orange

Of course, there are never any guarantees when trading (only that you can lose :)), but there well might be some valid reasons for having an overall negative bias, based on previous episodes!

There really are no experts when it comes to trading, it is just that some people are more stupid than others and give away their hard earned money way too easily.

I was watching the commentary on the Greek crisis earlier, and some "Expert" confirmed that we have uncertainty in the markets at the moment - doooooooh - WTF - and to think these people get paid huge amounts of money for gambling with other peoples money:mad:

Ignorance, really is bliss, but then again, most will not get off their big fat arses and do some serious study (and very hard work btw) for themselves, instead of relying on the stupid education that they received when growing up to guide them through the silly and idiotic world of trading:rolleyes:

Trading is Math, it is not Magic :)

Oh yeh, someone added that the chap who posted the video on youtube is selling an ebook/s, and I would add that if any person is so stupid enough to hand over their trading money to anyone else but a reliable guaranteed broker, then they deserve exactly what they get!

When one starts trading they need to grow up and stop acting like a child, and ignore all the shite about nothing - it is so easy to make money if one can see the obvious, which is not so obvious of course:)

J_S

JS,

The important lines are:
1. Purple: A: Appears to be the most volatile in this move.
B: Subsets of the other two lines are contained within its make up.
2. White: A: Is a derivative structure based on composite volatilities of the other markets.
B: Through trading this type of structure service providers can move in and out of the market with lower risk.

I notice your red vertical lines are about 7 years apart.

Big Fat Cats, xray vision to see? All based on Math? I need to watch/c too..

Greece: yes what passes for informed comment in the media is both trite and confused, and at worst downright misleading for the public. But probably helps the Big Fat Cats. Many BFC's will buy greek islands...Just like happened in Argentina..

Regards
Bogan22
 
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I am not sure if you meant that it was handed to me by GO, but I actually got it last year after hundreds of password tries. :)

Another thing that might be interesting, or not, to look at when looking at bars is the percent (or number of points) of a bar that overlap with the previous bars. In sharp moves, there is not much overlapping. (as a consequence, in overlapping/ranging areas the close of the area will be not too far from the open). Of course, this is visually easy to see, but observing the overlapping percentage can give some mathematical confirmation.

Another thing among others that I am observing now, is that we may consider that the Markets is quite steady in his behaviour when not disturbed, but when MM (or Big Money ?) enter the Market, that will create distortion (V or A moves) and after their operating the Market will somehow resume his previous steady path, as you can see on these examples below. I am not sure yet if it can be of any help for analysis, but maybe it can help to better identify the players and their agenda. It is not always as obvious as in my examples below, but it is to give an idea. (I just used the channels to see more easily the similitudes between the trend before and after the "move" ) I highlighted only few.

2958ns1.png

eun5eg.png

1492g7k.png


The most important thing on the chart might be the empty space, not the bars. The empty space draws the bars, the bars do not draw themselves on the empty space (if it makes any sense :D ) But how can we analyse that empty space, what can we do with it ?
What is happening here ?
And then, what can we do with Time and this empty space ?
These are true questions, I don't have any answer unfortunately.

The tiny realisation I had changes the way to see at Markets, but is not enough for me to make the big leap. It's more like having only the toes on the other side :p

030985

GO = Geraldo, of posts long gone.. Hi if your lurking GO.

Nice charts 030985, you are young and smart. Remember, when you put your money down to trade a market, you are participating inside someone else's business model. So whats steady behaviour, and what isn't just depends on where you stand in that model.

Regards
Bogan22
 
JS,

The important lines are:
1. Purple: A: Appears to be the most volatile in this move.
B: Subsets of the other two lines are contained within its make up.
2. White: A: Is a derivative structure based on composite volatilities of the other markets.
B: Through trading this type of structure service providers can move in and out of the market with lower risk.

I notice your red vertical lines are about 7 years apart.

Big Fat Cats, xray vision to see? All based on Math? I need to watch/c too..

Greece: yes what passes for informed comment in the media is both trite and confused, and at worst downright misleading for the public. But probably helps the Big Fat Cats. Many BFC's will buy greek islands...Just like happened in Argentina..

Regards
Bogan22

B22,

Look again and see if you will change your mind?

J_S
Screen Shot 07-07-15 at 06.26 PM.PNG
 
If you draw enough lines on a chart the price will eventually hit some of them, but, I think some are far more important than others.

Other lines are hidden on this post.

J_S

Screen Shot 07-07-15 at 07.50 PM.PNG
 
If you draw enough lines on a chart the price will eventually hit some of them,
J_S
This seems true to me...to add to this..i will only make money when it goes from lower line to upper line..problem is ..i should have enough in my pocket or bet small if i have to survive until it touches the higher lines...
life is short..this f**king problem is big...
by the way..what is the "C" you guys are talking about..
 
If you draw enough lines on a chart the price will eventually hit some of them, but, I think some are far more important than others.

Other lines are hidden on this post.

J_S

View attachment 154495

JS

Measured the move from Nov 14 to Dec 14. Same measure down from Jan high.
Measured the move from Dec 14 to Jan 15 high. Same measure up from June Low.

Regards
Bogan22
 
This seems true to me...to add to this..i will only make money when it goes from lower line to upper line..problem is ..i should have enough in my pocket or bet small if i have to survive until it touches the higher lines...
life is short..this f**king problem is big...
by the way..what is the "C" you guys are talking about..

Not sure what posts you are talking about "C", but if you post link to one I will have a guess.

It sure is a big f**king problem, but it will only be a problem for someone if they let it be so!

Way too much information, which does nothing but distract one from what needs to be done, but, there is a big difference between thinking one knows what to do, and actually being able to do it.

Lines are but a visual aid to identify "potential" key levels that attract other traders attention - they are not the main components of a viable tradeable approach that can make a good bit more money than it loses.

I truly believe that if an ordinary person decides to take up trading, that person will be far better off to keep away from highly volatile markets like FX and Index Futures, and stick to the good old fashioned "stocks and shares", which are far less risky - I am not talking about penny stocks here of course.

Capital is always a big factor of course, hence many are lured into the highly leveraged markets which are really very high risk for the ordinary person.

Just my thoughts, of course.

J_S
 
JS,

The orange has now become the more volatile, so change white to orange.

Regards
Bogan22

B22,

You changed your mind :)

You do of course know that trading is Math, it is not Magic, and the reality is that this is just a discussion in relation to historical patterns repeating at a future date, which will of course happen, as cycles are part of everyday life, but, the big question, of course, is........??????

You want to guess what I have on my mind.......??????

J_S
 
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