Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Quote from jack hershey:



What short coming of smart big money is always in the picture that prevents all trends from proceeding further?


The short coming is that they have more money than everyone else. So they have to find buyers when they are selling and they have to find sellers when they are buying. Eventually the rest of the market runs out of enough liquidity to feed them. They are slow.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

So I don't do the CW or the CW language.


When I began in 1957, no one was technical or scientific.


Step up and put me on ignore. See if you have more discipline than my detractors.


This thread is a chit chat thread but that hasn't been figured out yet. I did not participate here before a few days ago.

I saw some humor proffered by a person lacking in most stuff just as you are and are doing.

I may give you an eek if I run into you again.

Stepping up.
 

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Quote from OverDriven:

Thank you. I'll be honest I don't exactly know what NYSEStock's sideways chart thing was all about yet. That's the one part that has me a bit confused, but I'm not sure it's necessary. Anyone care to comment?

Don't know either, but, he/she used to go a bit gannish every now and then. There were a couple of good calls made, with probability and date targets.

Regards
Bogan22
 
Quote from OverDriven:

Jack, when you say "the full market offer", are you saying that it is possible to take what the market has to give completely? To know what it will do at every moment?

Not quite.

I know BEFORE the time you are speaking of.

Just before the Present there is a time slightly to the right on the charts of the Present.

That is where I finalize, what in a brief while, will be happening in the Present.

The market zigs and zags. My view of these is that each makes money, hence the full market offer. In our trading room we fillin these turns at a price value that is known before the Present occurs.

Thses price values have a name. In CW terms it is called obs....... something or other. In my market language is it called a WALL on the DOM.

Why it appears is because smartbigmoney has not gained the insight to know that too many limit orders on a given value means that NOT ALL OF THEM CAN BE PROCESSED.

Several games are played on the DOM. They are all sophomoric and unsophisticated. It is what happens when people think they are smarter than they are. They fit on the smart scale past the middle and they do not know what the far right side looks like.

For me, I have been tested and I am located to the right of the smart money.

So I can see the system of the market's operation. Because of this, I use leading indicators of price always. You use lagging indicators unfortunately.

I use 10 to 12 leading indicators of price. I invented several so they are not common to CW type people.

In the early days of Wikipedia I was the one who announced the new post PC defaults for the popular indicators. Today mediocrasy has returned to Wikipedia since it is democratic and such. Dummies and liberal artists prevail.

There are many many slow learners in ET.

What if you were a thinker?

What if you could look at a market and see anything?

It takes a real big jump in thinking to see that the market is finite and has very few parts.


As a warmup drill, consider a trend. It has three parts. Two of them are ends.


Image you are innersky. He is amazed that there are 35 End Effects of trends.

Image you are A. Lo at MIT. If you were you would look at extremes of trends and name them, find out they do not occur often and then find out they do not make any money when you use them your way. And you testify before Congress and they believe you. What a joke on Congress.

Once I testified before a Congressional committee on the efficiency of atomic power plants. They didn't believe me. They will someday, however.

I maintain an "unbelievable" status in most environments. This keeps most people out of my personal environment.

Attached is a chart. It shows some stuff I am writing up. Look at the superimposed boxes with medium borders. They show the reversal zones. The arrows, red for short and black for long, are reversals.

You said you do entry and exit and sit on the sidelines. I go in on open and do holds for the full offer and do reversals on each profit segment.

as you see in the illustration this is all unbelievable.
 

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In my prior post the chart was a little squished. stretch it vertically so the stuff is easier to see.

Here was the final exam.

Tell me when the boxes stopped appearing on the turns (turns which were not taken to make money).

Sometimes making money is too troublesome. so I sit on the side lines.

I use all my capital to trade. (94%). this is risk free when a person know he knows the system of operation of the markets.

Hopefully you now know there IS a system of operation of the markets and you know you do NOT know it at all. See innersky who says he does not know it either on the record for all to see.

You can retake the final. Just post the bar number of the last trade to exit to the sidelines. to get the answer fastest, use a print and a crayola. Fill in the clear boxes and see where you can stop filling in boxes with a crayola. This is called a drill. Drills are what builds long term memory.

The first drill for learning trading is to draw a different bar 50 times on fifty sheets of paper. A. Lo should ask one of his doctoral students to write a thesis on a bar. Shortcut Q for barineacs: How many square matricies are required to do the drill econometrically?
 
Quote from OverDriven:Jack, when you say "the full market offer", are you saying that it is possible to take what the market has to give completely? To know what it will do at every moment?

I believe he defines "taking the full market offer" as capturing all the swing high->low and vice-versa on a 1-min time frame. It's not so much that he knows what to do at each moment, but letting the market tell him exactly what to do. Then again, I think JH is omniscient and is 1 with the market... :p

Quote from OverDriven:
Also, it seems that you would say the "obvious" is that if something isn't working, you need to stop, realize why and refine it. Is that correct?

More likely, you'll need to make 1 change per iteration before you actually know why things aren't working in that particular instance. Proper testing method - slow yet deliberate: Take a baseline, test, change 1 thing, test again, compare results, understand the effects of the change, and create a new baseline.

Lather, rinse, repeat as often as necessary.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

There is a long list of things you do not know.

And there is that other list of what you do not know that you do not know about yourself.

You are confused and you do not know what is necessary.

Lets say you did do a 180 that you recognize some of.

The OP has not proposed anything significant. The OP is not capable of accomplishing any significant goal (for himself or for anyone else.)

In trading or investing, the accomplishment is measureable.

Behavioral Finance points out EXACTLY how effectivenss and efficiency is improved through iterative refinement.

Iterative refinement is EXPLICITLY dependent upon having a base line from which to build upon.

The market has a system of operation. You either do or do not know that this is valid. Since you do not use a systemmic orientation, I doubt if you are making an exception with respect to the market's operation.

You bet and use an incomplete rendition of OODA. So do the majority of market participants.

So there are two functions that merge: the market theory and the human psychology.

BF says that when a human has adverse feelings, he should stop and iteratively refine his approach.

You have stated that now you can see things you could not see before. And since you can, you compare the before and after.

Try comparing the reality of the full offer of the market to your "new and improved" performance. You are, as yet, not any more efective or efficient than before on a test of statistical significance. If you were, you would have been smart enough to say so in scientific and or statistical terms. You would have mentioned something tangible.

Since you can see things in stuff and you are very skilled in what you think you are doing, take heed and begin the process of rational self-reflection.

In markets, all turns are telegraphed in advance. HOW?

Now look at WHY.

What short coming of smart big money is always in the picture that prevents all trends from proceeding further?

This is NOT a case of what is not obvious. It is not a case of the obvious either.

The maturity of market behavior and participant behavior is sub standard.

The financial indusry holds that making money is a process where people convince others and get paid a major stream of earnings in the form of commissions and fees. OPM is the basis of the financial industry.

John Bogle was an exception. He made ten times the money owning Vangard stock over what Vanguard made for and paid to clients and what change occurred in the indexes. Ten times not including fees and commissiions.

How will you ever get smart and how long will it take you to begin the trip of getting smart? You are nowhere.

Last few months have extracted a lot out of me. The trip has been a humbling experience. Thanks for posting this., since it is helping to get my mind focused on more positive outlook.
 
Quote from OverDriven:

Jack, I don't mean this offensively or as a challenge, but are you a profitable trader? Do you make money month after month?

Any trader lacks one of two things or both: knowledge or capital.
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

Any trader lacks one of two things or both: knowledge or capital.

Believe it or not, it's possible to be successful and knowledgeable.

I asked Jack the question because he posts a lot, and has a group of people who follow his every word. I'm just wondering if any of them has stopped to ask him if he is profitable before they spend their time trying to decode his cryptic messages. If he isn't profitable, then I'm not interested in wasting my time on it.
 
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