Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Quote from Redneck:

Morning Note, (assuming you’re located in the western hemisphere)


So I see two quasi questions;

I’m not sure if I am correct or not (on my entries)


But if I go with my approach – I know for sure that what the direction MAY BE

……………..

If I have these wrong, let me know please


Btw, notice any irony in this sentence;

I know, for sure, what may be

=================================================


As for entries;

Between the two charts you posted – which has the lowest risk entries – and why

(Our first job is risk management)



As for direction;

First.., we never know – allow me to repeat this – we never know…. So the best we can do is go with the probabilities

What tools could you utilize to identify the *near-term* probable direction (easy to go crazy with this one – don’t, simple is always best… also..., easy to use conflicting tools..., again – keep it simple)


• *Near-term* means – near-term within your chosen trading TF (a little heat is okay, a lot / or excessive heat is never acceptable)

• A lot/ excessive is defined in two ways – excessive to the amount we are trying to make… and, excessive to the net balance in our trading account (meaning net out the leverage)


Risk on each trade needs to be equal to sometimes…, less than the vast majority of times – our targeted reward – AND/ BUT – risk must never be greater than (otherwise mathematically we are doomed to failure)

Risk on each trade also needs to be a very small % of our net account – as we may need to take some number of losses before reaping the reward (this does improve with experience, unless we’re having a bad day)

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Aside - a few facts;

We must all find our own way to trade… along with the tools we use (no two traders will ever be exactly alike – AND, everything works, at times – and everything does not work, at times)

We need a business plan.., a trading plan, and a methodology

No matter how we decide to trade…, or what tools we use – never lose sight of the fact – price is driven by people… by their emotions…, by simple buying and selling… It is never driven by a chart, line(s) or indicator(s)…. Our job is to detach and take advantage of this, while protecting our ass always (personally I think it is best to understand how the mkt actually works – but that is best left for a whole other conservation)

Learning how to trade – easy as pie…

Mastering the ability to execute…, as a trader…, and as required – is where many can’t…, and ultimately fail

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Please focus on addressing my two questions – once we get them answered to your satisfaction we’ll move on in whatever direction you like

RN
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Hi RN
How are you doing...
yes i am in western hemisphere..in Boston actually. I have been living here for few years. but originally i am from this place.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs

crazy people..
so at least i know something about seeing order in chaos.

anyway regarding the points you told me to observe..I spent whole of my weekend on understanding this..that price moves up then comes down then moves up again..so if i have to put a low risk entry then it should be when the price pulls back, so that it will not go further down.
now to where exactly put my entry...is again don't know..but best
guess would be when price approaches previous support (in case if i want to go long) .
but off-course it does not behave like this always, it can further go down breaking previous support. so i actually don't know where to make entry, but probably i will put my entry when price is in pull back and hit any support, moves upwards and hit a resistance. At that point i can make entry, and putting stop loss as support down there.

Now further i read on this thread.. the more i am getting confused, I saw TO uses options table to see the price where there is major activity, or i volume (in case of stocks) at that level, to justify his entries, so just gathering some key information that if that support will hold or not.

BTW i trade Forex, i used to trade options but as you may have guess I lost too much; Forex seems to be where i can limit the lot size and go small until i learn.

so just need to know that obvious is open to public right ? this information is nothing like some spike in difference in bid / ask.
or some information like big institutional investor bought some stock etc ..


Not sure if this is obvious,but please comment if the above strategy falls somewhere near to obvious or not.
 
Quote from Mysteron:

Perhaps SBSP will help you IANAE :cool:
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That took a bit of working out. I don't have kids and I'd never heard of it before. Also not sure if it's as popular here in the UK.

Which episode will teach me how to make good money trading? :D
 
best thread ever, five strars!
i'd give 10 if allowed
just wondering how much longer will it take the obvious to be not so obvious..
bet!
there seems to be some kind of rule about these threads - the vaguer the title the longer the thread
 
I believe I now know what the obvious is. I believe I have also worked out TO's trading technique. It is simple but utterly inspired.

Although the obvious has been stated many times in this thread, it wasn't until I figured out TO's trading method that I appreciated how profound the obvious really is. It completely changes the way you look at things.

As to WHY the obvious is not so obvious? It is just way too unorthodox.

My trading has previously been long term position, and I'm not sure TO's approach would work as well over periods longer than intra day. I will have to give this some thought with my new way of thinking.
 
Quote from IANAE:

I believe I now know what the obvious is. I believe I have also worked out TO's trading technique. It is simple but utterly inspired.

Although the obvious has been stated many times in this thread, it wasn't until I figured out TO's trading method that I appreciated how profound the obvious really is. It completely changes the way you look at things.

As to WHY the obvious is not so obvious? It is just way too unorthodox.

My trading has previously been long term position, and I'm not sure TO's approach would work as well over periods longer than intra day. I will have to give this some thought with my new way of thinking.
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IANAE,
I realized TO 's technique too, I was looking something at cme site, then it clicked to me, and also why RN's says to look how market works. May be that is what it is, keep risk small, its like lottery, if win wins otherwise did not loose much.
I am getting headache man :(
weird game, only understanding it is not enough :confused: need to know how to execute too..to much to digest
 
As I said in my 1st post, I stumbled on this thread a couple of years ago. I read a few hundred pages but nothing clicked at the time.

For some reason it kept drawing me back. There were 2 possibilities, either:

1) NY, TO were BS wind-up merchants
2) there was something of value to be discovered

I decided to keep an open mind and I'm glad I did. It wasn't easy because NY's style/attitude makes you feel like you're being played like a fool.

I still believe there is value in some of the mainstream stuff eg. long term trend following. BUT it's good to dispel, once and for all, that the vast majority of it is pure mumbo jumbo.
 
Quote from note:

IANAE,
I am getting headache man :(


weird game, only understanding it is not enough :confused: need to know how to execute too..to much to digest
More...

Note… note… note


First – please go back and specifically answer my two questions

Second – it is easy to get overwhelmed (drinking from a fire hose)

Eliminate everything that is not currently useful.. and I really mean all of it… then start building up

=====================

Between the two charts – which has the lowest risk entries.. and why

As for probable direction – name off 1, 2 or 3 tools we can use to identify near term probable direction


And please don’t concern yourself with being wrong… I’m wrong nearly every day… and some days multiple times a day

Being wrong ain’t no big deal… remaining wrong…, however, is a Big damn deal... and will break our account

========

As for knowing how to execute - that's truly an internal lesson

Realize , I get that you mean how to execute (enter/ exit) - based on a what's on a chart(s)

But there will be another, much deeper, lesson on how to execute - that you will also need to learn


Anyway - please answer my two questions

Thanks

RN
 
Quote from Redneck:

Note… note… note


First – please go back and specifically answer my two questions

Second – it is easy to get overwhelmed (drinking from a fire hose)

Eliminate everything that is not currently useful.. and I really mean all of it… then start building up

=====================

Between the two charts – which has the lowest risk entries.. and why

As for probable direction – name off 1, 2 or 3 tools we can use to identify near term probable direction


And please don’t concern yourself with being wrong… I’m wrong nearly every day… and some days multiple times a day

Being wrong ain’t no big deal… remaining wrong…, however, is a Big damn deal... and will break our account

========

As for knowing how to execute - that's truly an internal lesson

Realize , I get that you mean how to execute (enter/ exit) - based on a what's on a chart(s)

But there will be another, much deeper, lesson on how to execute - that you will also need to learn


Anyway - please answer my two questions

Thanks

RN
More...

RN,

I see low risk entries in push pull's chart. All of his entries are at places where the price bar turns, this is what i observed.
Also he can put stop loss just next to where price made last high/low. That would be a small stop loss.

hmm...and also like price explodes then make a turn and stops.
the NRB / WRB you were talking about. All entries are at small range bar.

Tools to check probable direction can be either stochastic, RSI or CCI or anything.
 

Attachments

Quote from Redneck:

Note… note… note


First – please go back and specifically answer my two questions

Second – it is easy to get overwhelmed (drinking from a fire hose)

Eliminate everything that is not currently useful.. and I really mean all of it… then start building up

=====================

Between the two charts – which has the lowest risk entries.. and why

As for probable direction – name off 1, 2 or 3 tools we can use to identify near term probable direction


And please don’t concern yourself with being wrong… I’m wrong nearly every day… and some days multiple times a day

Being wrong ain’t no big deal… remaining wrong…, however, is a Big damn deal... and will break our account

========

As for knowing how to execute - that's truly an internal lesson

Realize , I get that you mean how to execute (enter/ exit) - based on a what's on a chart(s)

But there will be another, much deeper, lesson on how to execute - that you will also need to learn


Anyway - please answer my two questions

Thanks

RN
More...

Sir RN, I recently read a post by you about being one with the market and the price, I'd like to save it, pray do supply a link for the post. I thought it might have been in Al Brook's House thread but I did not find it there, on going back.

Many Thanks.
 
Quote from note:

RN,

I see low risk entries in push pull's chart. All of his entries are at places where the price bar turns, this is what i observed.
Also he can put stop loss just next to where price made last high/low. That would be a small stop loss.

hmm...and also like price explodes then make a turn and stops.
the NRB / WRB you were talking about. All entries are at small range bar.

Tools to check probable direction can be either stochastic, RSI or CCI or anything.
More...
Forgot to put Sir before RN. :)

Really appreciate your efforts to teach something of value.
 
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