Quote from river:
A couple of questions Jack if you are still following this thread:
Today's first reversal was on bar 1?
Tomorrow morning we are short at the open and a pt3 just formed on bar81 in the OOE? (I'm finding the outside bars 77, 79, and 81 combined with the end of day volume effects rather confusing).
-river
Hi river:
Bar one was an Outside bar, so it represents two points.
The first boint set up the N+1 condition for an End Effect.
As you saw the bottom of the bar came first while the case was a stitch.
this allowed you to carve the turn and thne the long was underway.
BUT you need to be more certain usually so it is wise to use pt2 as the N+1 signal. Technically you see that when pt2 is created. The "doji" aspect came before this and before the doji was the appearance of the "spike" off the bottom.
There were many other leading indicators, as well.
the principle of staying on the correct side of the market is THE MOST IMPORTANT.
I would say that most potential traders really do not have a handle on the way ticks work inside of the market's sentiment. How the mental progression works to get to the comsumate stability for making money trading comes mostly from the operation of two things: Getting the transfer waves that conduct information from the sub conscious to the conscious and more important, how the subconscious is allowed to control "knowing that you know".
Most people cannot just settle in on a trading fractal. They always sniff around on other fractals and then their minds are forming spectrums for each fractal and NOT interconnecting or finding the interelationships.
Mostly everything we achieve does not come from the conscious mind.
Today, we did end up in a short trend for carryover on the open tomorrow.
For me, bar 76 was a trend end. I set bar 77 as the beginning of the short trend. both of these determinations have to do with the type of end effect of a trend. I only have one class of end effects where the EE is also pt 1 (P1).
As you say, bar 81 was pt3 (the second trough of volume).
I see some chatter in this thread about how much money is being made by various methods of trading.
By looking at he average daily "take", it is possible to estimate the number of days for doubling capital. But there is another dimension as well. financial planners have traditionally earned their keep by giving clients advice on building wealth. Today, most financial planner advice, if taken, would put the average client at other than the peak of his capital building.
To become immune from this CW arrangement, it is very important to always be growing capital all of the time. There are no rules around that obligate anyone to not be making money all of the time.
If a person finds a standard for making money, it usually comes from appraising the market's off appropriately.
I posted my trades for the first three days of this week. I also posted other lists for other days. As was seen I did not go any further than a beginner or advanced beginner level of knowledge and skills. A lot was left on the table, so to speak.
the net result can be shown on various runs using Excel. It is easy to see that making 1/3 of the margin daily, lets any person double his capital in three days. BUT as usual the person has to use his capital to trade during RTH.
What is more conventional in ET, is to read about people coming off the sidelines occassionally and doing an entry which is fololowed by retruning to the sidelines. This approach makes a marginal amount of money.
the sweet spot is "all in" and "always in". This is quite frightening to most people. It is not done using the financial planner's system of thinking.
