Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[The Oracle]

Quote from Mysteron:

Positive expectancy. No point trading if you haven't got that.

I don't see how that appears on your 2 trades, although surely you must have had it in mind.

Positive expectancy is nothing more than a tendency to profit in the long run by your own behaviour whilst trading, obviously.

sometimes u will be right ..and sometime u will be wrong

the reality of trading..is..some days u will make good trades,,and some days bad..but if u always take each trade as a loser..then u will be ok..as u know it might lose..but..in the long run..providing u keep trading..and have enuf money ..u will come out winning

look at my EUR options trades for instance..not toooooo good at the moment..should have listened to ML ..but..point is..the euro may still rally..and i have risked some more as well..as i am feeling a bit lucky..which might be totally wrong of course..and..i really don't give a shyte..it's only $3.2K..as..i know i will make more money back than i lose..if not on euro..then on other markets

everyone is different..u can stick to just one..and stay at it..as of now..i am trying out different markets..why..because i want to

TO has been in the red many times..recovered..and also not recovered..but either way..it should and must not affect u..u must know that u need to trade to put the odds in ur favour..and the more u do it..the better u get at it..but never forget that u can have many losers in a row..as winners..and u will find that when u have many losers..then u were either not doing ur homework correctly..u were getting greedy(overtrading)..or u were just plain damn stupid..so..always keep rule no.1 in mind..and u will be ok in the long run and come out on top..which is what u need to do

it is also wise to take money out when u make it..just in case u get carried away and think u are going to make millions..sure all u need is thousands

NEVER BE AFRAID TO LOSE

TO

 

[The Oracle]

Quote from macattack:

I agree with Mysteron. What matters most when trading is to know when to get in & when to get out & to be as accurate as possible.

A guy can risk 2 ticks & get stopped out 5 times losing 10 ticks & missing the big move while another guy can risk 10 ticks & never get stopped out & catch a big move of 50 ticks.

The guy risking 2 ticks thinks he risked less, but in the twisted reality of trading he actually ended up risking more.

Looking at your 2 trade examples one was very accurate; the other was just plain wrong.

RN made a very good point..and that is..pick ur stop first and the entry is then easy

the reality of course..is that once u enter..anything can happen..so ur stop is ur way of keeping in the game to play the odds..plain and simple

options are a very good way of fixing ur risk 100%..when long..but as option price decays over time..it is more risky buying near expiry options..even though they are a lot cheaper

but..to buy next month+ options..u will pay out a lot more..so u need to be prepared to take on the risk..or just don't do it

as with all trading......

T=$

be very careful what u do with ur money..and never believe anything u read on websites..no matter who writes it..for..u alone are the only person who can make or break U..and also know..there is never gain without pain..and that can mean hours of looking at screens..giving u headaches and pains in ur eyes..so..make sure u pick a way that allows u get away from it all for most of the time..and use common sense

anyway..99.99% of it is just a load of bollox..and the little bit that matters is..U

TO

 

[The Oracle]

Quote from poland:

Dear TO,

my apology for the late response. (read your reply earlier but too much thinking....forgot to reply)
Thanks for taking your time and inputs.
I think I can work out something for myself....this is take some time...
I must stay rule no.1 is a great guiding principle....
and also the thinking part is very important....

I will update you of my progress somewhere in the future.

Once again...thank you.

np PL..just be prepared to do some hard work..find out what way u like best based on what times u have available..start small..and then it is just a matter of time

i still think the US stock market is the best way to trade..as u can keep ur risk small and make some good money..but that is just my opinion..u must of course discover what is best for u..and go for it

TO

 

[The Oracle]

Quote from macattack:

What was your reason for buying CL calls?

I saw the obvious Head & Shoulders on my 60-min chart, so I figured it had a good chance of trapping people & going up instead of down today.

Plus we've had 3 fairly narrow days in a row on the daily, so a decent up bar or down bar was due.

the only head and shoulders that TO uses..is for his hair

trade was based on a straight line..and as RN would say..go figure

so..that day..did not like the market moves early on..so decided to bail out as had to go out..which cost me a bit..but main point is small winner..not loser

look at how the time decay kicked in..and as well..do not like the way the CL market option prices moved..just me of course

TO

 

[Redneck]

Quote from macattack:

Looking at your 2 trade examples one was very accurate; the other was just plain wrong.

You know MAC,

Every one of my losing trades was/ is/ will be wrong – after the fact

Fact is a trader doesn't concern themselves with being right or wrong…

Nor would a trader judge another trader in those terms

==================================

I sincerely hope you’re not as judgmental with your losers Sir

Be a hellofa a burden to needlessly face/ lug around everyday




Simply something to ponder

RN

 

[The Oracle]

Quote from mekanikal:

Wow TO good to see you going from stocks -> index options -> futures options -> futures -> oil -> forex - did I miss anything

eur looks weak to me and a test (or break) of 1.2 may not be out of the question but then again what do I know


change volume day range

So you are looking at an instrument with consistent and juicy ADR!

Very interested in how this pans out

ZS + GC

yes ML..the euro dropped a bit more..and TO is a bit sad..but TO will say a prayer tonite to the big trader in the sky..to please come down and get Angela to light some fires in the black forest

good side..any option that expires worthless is one less commission

early days yet..lets see what happens..and who knows..maybe TO will win..or maybe he will lose..for that is what trading is all about

btw..been working on new layout for daytrading ES and NQ..put many hours into it..and 2 new monitors for even longer booktrader ..happy with results so far..but not finished yet

TO is developing an new layout..called the FFT..damn..here we go again

F _ _ _

F _ _ _

T R A D I N G


TO

 

[The Oracle]

30 day range for ES & NQ

or..

 

[The Oracle]

or....

point is..it is as easy to work at something..as sit on ur arse and post everything about nothing

this took the time it took..bout 15 mins i suppose..and it is handy detail to see..and what is more..it can be all done automatically..with very little work..so..make use of ur PC..for that is what it is for..not for facebook and silly trading websites

TO

 

[The Oracle]

last post..really

i am looking at my screens now..and something has come back to me that was covered in the past..it was about about a painting..and what it actually meant..damn..will have to try and find it tmrw..as it might be just worth it

also..if u find that u are not doing any extra work as a result of posting here..then u need to start..i have done many many hours of work in the last few weeks..and i do not like working for nothing..but..will not really start into risking bigger money until happy with ES/NQ setup and reaction times..for..getting ur setups right..and papertrading..are not one and the same..ur setups are like ur tradesman's tools..and..have u ever seen a carpenter driving in a nail with a spanner

TO

 

[The Oracle]

Quote from Redneck:

You know MAC,

Every one of my losing trades was/ is/ will be wrong – after the fact

Fact is a trader doesn't concern themselves with being right or wrong…

Nor would a trader judge another trader in those terms

==================================

I sincerely hope you’re not as judgmental with your losers Sir

Be a hellofa a burden to needlessly face/ lug around everyday




Simply something to ponder

RN

of course..RN..u have hit the nail on the head..again

talking about it..and doing it..are not one and same

what u talk about..i think..is the biggest obstacle that every trader has to overcome..for..even though one knows that anything can happen..as soon as the trade is filled..everything changes..and now the trader must be right..otherwise the trade would not have been placed

big mistake..in fact..the biggest mistake a trader will ever make..for..as u rightly say..trading is not about being right..or wrong..it is all about the act of trading..risk control..and position sizing correctly

or..to cut all the bullshit..look for a signal..place the fukin trade..and it either wins or loses..and as Mr Ramsey says..after that..u can FUK OFF if u start messing about in the kitchen

he is one fukin cunt that ramsey..but i like him..a straight talkin chappy..which is what is needed..not nicey picey shitheads who tell u what u want to hear..so..FUK THEM

TO