Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[mekanikal]

Thanks TO for taking time and explaining the basics to fools like me
You and others (TFF) have definitely cleared my mind of some clouds - i.e. the suspicions I had regarding the markets which I couldn't describe.

I guess now I have to test the waters myself. Keeping risk/losses small, try and identify obvious locations. Practice intelligently to weed out bad trades (even if profitable but had no good reasoning behind it) and then heighten the focus on good ones.

I'll see how it goes and post progress. Hopefully one day 'someone' will pressure me to do the same what they are doing now. Have to say I have seen this pattern in every thread

PS: Regarding those unfortunates living stateside can avoid the pattern day trade regulation by opening a CASH account (i.e. a normal account with NO MARGIN). That way you can daytrade all you want - but I believe you have to wait 3 days for stocks to settle.

IB can open a cash account for 10k. Call them up and clarify this bit. Since I can deal with PDT, I haven't bothered digging this up but please do try and post your findings here.

 

[mekanikal]

Quote from The Oracle:


what else do u notice about this chart..what STANDS out..remember..think before u post

TO

What jumps out to me is that whenever price bounces from lower line it touches the upper line and vice versa. What is more important though is when the lines were drawn. If drawn before the bars were formed then it gives a good range to lookout for moves. If drawn after the fact then they paint a congestion area to take into account for a future trade.

This looks likes a scalpers chart.

Your second chart is hourlies and points to a daytrader with wider stops and longer profit.

And no one stops you from doing both - just a different mindset

Am I getting anywhere!

 

[The Oracle]

Quote from mekanikal:

Thanks TO for taking time and explaining the basics to fools like me
You and others (TFF) have definitely cleared my mind of some clouds - i.e. the suspicions I had regarding the markets which I couldn't describe.

I guess now I have to test the waters myself. Keeping risk/losses small, try and identify obvious locations. Practice intelligently to weed out bad trades (even if profitable but had no good reasoning behind it) and then heighten the focus on good ones.

I'll see how it goes and post progress. Hopefully one day 'someone' will pressure me to do the same what they are doing now. Have to say I have seen this pattern in every thread

PS: Regarding those unfortunates living stateside can avoid the pattern day trade regulation by opening a CASH account (i.e. a normal account with NO MARGIN). That way you can daytrade all you want - but I believe you have to wait 3 days for stocks to settle.

IB can open a cash account for 10k. Call them up and clarify this bit. Since I can deal with PDT, I haven't bothered digging this up but please do try and post your findings here.

well ML..always remember that most of it is just bullshit..and in order to make some money..u must risk some money..but..make sure u keep ur risk small..especially in these volatile markets..otherwise $10K can disappear very quickly..and yes..u are of course correct about cash account..but $10K is really not that much for trading with..but no matter what amount..the % risk per trade must still apply

i will post a trade i done at end of FTSE Mib market today..a typical risk control trade that might just make me some €..and if not..so what..as the risk is small and being taken with profits from same market

TO

 

[Mysteron]

TO,

I agree that trading is gambling, simply because it is an activity that risks money to gain more money. There is risk because the outcome of each individual trade is uncertain. In order to gamble effectively the odds need to be assessed to be in favour so that in combination with a stop, target, position size the outcome in the long term over a series of trades leads to profit. Thats very clear.

Trouble with assessing odds though is that I doubt anyone can intuitively evaluate odds as precise numerical probabilities. Instead the odds are assessed in a more fuzzy form and percieved as a bias that one outcome is more likely than another most of the time.

When a trade is placed, having assessed the odds, in effect an opinion is being expressed or a prediction as to the likely future price move. Prediction is an objectionable word for some but I believe it is correct to use that term.

To help improve the odds in our favour it would be better to be able to judge the intent of the major market participents. The only information I have is price over multiple TFs, I don't use volume and don't have access to DOM or ToS. Using price alone is like looking at the output of a system for which the dynamics are hidden in a black box that I can't see into. In order to use price information more effectively to estimate the bias of future price moves I suspect that a better understanding of the hidden dynamics of the market participents is needed, so as to step through the looking glass so to speak.

 

[Mysteron]

TO,

I hope this doesn't make you feel uncomfortable but I'm curious to know what your opinion is of these comments below which were copied from an old post from another trading site:

The real fuel that drives the markets is intent.

Intent....covert....camouflaged....wilful...tantalising... intent is what baffles nearly everybody.

And sussing this hidden intent is the true art of trading.

We are not specifically talking about predicting.

Accurate prediction is also a by product.

It comes from beyond deep understanding.

It arrives as a result of total harmony with unfolding events that inexhorably give very solid clues ( usually)....and leads to reliable expectancy.

 

[The Oracle]

Quote from Mysteron:

TO,

I agree that trading is gambling, simply because it is an activity that risks money to gain more money. There is risk because the outcome of each individual trade is uncertain. In order to gamble effectively the odds need to be assessed to be in favour so that in combination with a stop, target, position size the outcome in the long term over a series of trades leads to profit. Thats very clear.

Trouble with assessing odds though is that I doubt anyone can intuitively evaluate odds as precise numerical probabilities. Instead the odds are assessed in a more fuzzy form and percieved as a bias that one outcome is more likely than another most of the time.

When a trade is placed, having assessed the odds, in effect an opinion is being expressed or a prediction as to the likely future price move. Prediction is an objectionable word for some but I believe it is correct to use that term.

To help improve the odds in our favour it would be better to be able to judge the intent of the major market participents. The only information I have is price over multiple TFs, I don't use volume and don't have access to DOM or ToS. Using price alone is like looking at the output of a system for which the dynamics are hidden in a black box that I can't see into. In order to use price information more effectively to estimate the bias of future price moves I suspect that a better understanding of the hidden dynamics of the market participents is needed, so as to step through the looking glass so to speak.

MN..there is an old saying..that holds true..and it is this..

there is always someone else who is smarter than me

i know some traders who can read charts like no one else..but..they also have their own weaknesses in other areas of trading..with overall result being..win some..lose some

it helps greatly if u like trading..and not for the money..but for the act itself..for..like any job..half the battle is liking what u are doing

there are many ways to make and lose a $..but there is only one correct way to approach trading if u want to stay at it long enuf to succeed..and we all know what that is by now

anyway..anyone with real interest here knows the ropes by now..so we will stop repeating the OBVIOUS.. ..and try and post about trading only..but of course..the usual suspects will no doubt be along to add their words of wisdom for all to learn from..great thing this internet..pity about all the assholes though

TO

 

[The Oracle]

Quote from Mysteron:

TO,

I hope this doesn't make you feel uncomfortable but I'm curious to know what your opinion is of these comments below which were copied from an old post from another trading site:

The real fuel that drives the markets is intent.

Intent....covert....camouflaged....wilful...tantalising... intent is what baffles nearly everybody.

And sussing this hidden intent is the true art of trading.

We are not specifically talking about predicting.

Accurate prediction is also a by product.

It comes from beyond deep understanding.

It arrives as a result of total harmony with unfolding events that inexhorably give very solid clues ( usually)....and leads to reliable expectancy.

mmmmmmmm..whoever posted that seems to know a bit about trading..

however..

i will answer ur question..with a famous quote

Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.

TO

 

[The Oracle]

Quote from mekanikal:

What jumps out to me is that whenever price bounces from lower line it touches the upper line and vice versa. What is more important though is when the lines were drawn. If drawn before the bars were formed then it gives a good range to lookout for moves. If drawn after the fact then they paint a congestion area to take into account for a future trade.

This looks likes a scalpers chart.

Your second chart is hourlies and points to a daytrader with wider stops and longer profit.

And no one stops you from doing both - just a different mindset

Am I getting anywhere!

it all depends on ur results

lines are but a guide to help u see where probable S&R levels are..nothing more..and price can hit a line and reverse..not touch a line..or bust thru a line real fast..will u ever know what will happen next..well..i think u know the answer to that..for if u could..u would have more money than WB and BG put together

so..let us post a chart of a low risk trade..with a potential to make some money anytime over the next few weeks..and if not..so what..for our risk is capped and no matter how many countries need billions in bailout..we don't really give a shyte..all we want to see is the mib moving up and down like a bungee jumper

i hope those who bought yesterday at 760 were covered..as buying calls is not the best odds to play..especially at high prices..but then again..they probably sold to the market makers..clever bastards

btw..if anyone decides to copy any trades that TO posts..then do so at ur own risk..of course..and do not be afraid to see ur p&l in the red..but make sure u have enuf funds and take profit when u have it..else u might just be one sorry bastard

 

[poland]

Hi TO,

Can I ask what is the white line?

 

[poland]

Quote from The Oracle:


Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumored by many. Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books. Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders. Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations. But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it.

TO [/B]

I very agree with you...else we would lose of capacity of being a human being.