Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Redneck · Nov 5, 2011

Quote from BobbiDigital:

Hey TO & RN,

How do you keep track of your trade stats or daily performance (other than p&l)? Seems like it could create a rigid mindset for your styles. Or do you just focus on R:R and execution once you 'get it'?

thanks for all you have taught those of us listening

now...these inner demons are a bitch.

Sorry DB I missed your question

First I believe an automated trader needs to track stats in order to know how his/ her system is performing

I do not believe a discretionary trader needs toâ¦ so all the sharp ratio/ win/ loss % / or whatever stats â is useless to me

I donât trade stats â I trade priceâ¦

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So what I do

I set out each day to make a certain % on my trading account.

Egotistical â maybeâ¦ but it helps keep me focused, goal oriented, and using my trading capital efficiently

The way I track PAâ¦, my tradingâ¦, my resultsâ¦, my personal performanceâ¦, my thoughts â is through journalingâ¦

A note on journaling

Writing down our thoughts â I truly believe â is one of the few times we are absolutely honest with our self â so I find it an invaluable tool

Plus it is a historical reference - for a myriad of things

One other note

Whenever I have an abundance of sequential losing trades â that is a huge warning signal to me that I am out of syncâ¦ either I am rushing trades â and/ or â not in tune with price

I immediately step backâ¦, identify my deficiency â and fix it

eta - I also receive a monthly statement and performance summary from my broker - I summarily review both, archive the first, and delete the latter

RN

The Oracle · Nov 5, 2011

Quote from xburbx:

Question about that chart. Are the generals present? I'm going to take a stab and say yes.

the generals are always present

have a look at this excerpt from what i believe was part of a +$5K coursei:eek: ..and TO told you for free

rossky · Nov 5, 2011

Quote from The Oracle:

RN, the perfect entry is my major concern at this time.

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Middle of the thick area, which is the lower horizontal line is very close to, is a half way to the target. Middle of the thin area would be another instance. It's just an approximation and there's no guarantee the price will travel that distance.

As far as I understand, support and resistance levels are an area, hence the blur.
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The grid here is 10 cents. That's why I asked this question.

xburbx · Nov 5, 2011

First glance at that article says placing a bet on 1 number with a 36 dollar return means you can't break even in the Long run with 0 and 00 present. As far as the generals question I should have been more specific. On that chart are they expected to show up at certain areas?

rossky · Nov 6, 2011

Quote from The Oracle:

the generals are always present

have a look at this excerpt from what i believe was part of a +$5K coursei:eek: ..and TO told you for free

The presence of the green squares on the roulette wheel and on the table are technically the only house edge. Outside bets will always lose when a single or double zero come up. However, the house also has an edge on inside bets because the pay outs are always set at 35 to 1 when you mathematically have a 37 to 1 chance at winning a straight bet on a single number. To demonstrate the house edge on inside bets, imagine placing straight $1 wagers on all inside numbers on a roulette table (including 0 and 00) to assure a win. You would only get back 36 times your original bet having spent $38.

...
When you place a $1 bet on any given number your odds against winning are 37 to 1. What it really says is that 1 out of 38 numbers will come up and that most likely it's not going to be your number.

Unless you play against a biased wheel it's impossible to design a strategy based on statistics to defeat the system.

Forget about making money, forget about breaking even. You will definitely lose all your money if you stay at the table long enough.

The funny thing is that if you bet on a single number and switch the numbers all the time, you may never be able to stay at the table long enough to even guess it right one single time!

rossky · Nov 6, 2011

Quote from The Oracle:

the generals are always present

have a look at this excerpt from what i believe was part of a +$5K coursei:eek: ..and TO told you for free

I have no idea what a sequence trader is. But if I understand the example above correctly, they assume that if I bet on a particular number all the time, out of 38 times it will come up. Thus if I divide my money into 36 equal pieces and bet on that particular number all the time, and skip first two spins, then if my number does not come up in those first two spins, it will come up in the next 36 spins and thus I have a chance to break even.

xburbx · Nov 6, 2011

Every spin is independent and spinning a number prior to the current spin will have no impact on the current spins outcome. Just like flipping a coin if you flip heads last it will have no impact on your next flip.

rossky · Nov 6, 2011

Quote from xburbx:

Every spin is independent and spinning a number prior to the current spin will have no impact on the current spins outcome. Just like flipping a coin if you flip heads last it will have no impact on your next flip.

Exactly!

Same should apply to the markets. Some however believe that the market is like playing against a biased wheel in the casino, to say the least.

PushPull · Nov 6, 2011

Quote from xburbx:

Every spin is independent and spinning a number prior to the current spin will have no impact on the current spins outcome. Just like flipping a coin if you flip heads last it will have no impact on your next flip.

Of course that is true only if you don't know where the ball is going to land.

Mysteron · Nov 6, 2011

Quote from The Oracle:

what's gone..is gone
what's here..is here
what's now..is now
what's clear..is clear

be careful when applying recent event criteria to past event criteria..as u might just be a little bit disappointed..but..do not take the word of TO..or anyone else for that matter..PROVE it to urself..and then YOU will see..

what will be..will be

TO

Well I won't be trading POT tomorrow but it will be interesting to see what happens. I tried to read and annotate the chart from left to right as if it was unfolding. The red lines of price increments seemed to falter, so at that point I switched to smaller price increment in blue once the first was seen. TO's original diagonal lines were drawn in purple for comparison.

When drawing on the chart I was merely thinking outloud so to speak, as I don't usually draw such things, but I have been experimenting lately.

One thing that I made a point of not doing, so as not to be seen as making a prediction, was to draw another blue diagonal segment at an obvious place that would scope out the next days likely price movement and the next level up if the trend continues. It does help the mind's eye to see where price may go next though, but as you say, what will be.. will be.

RN was asking about measured moves. I vaguely recall that TE posted some charts annotated with horizontal lines and diagonal line segments, and someone else referred to them as measured moves which may or may not be correct. I don't think it really matters what terminology is used - to me they are just line segments.