Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?
- Thread starter nysestocks
- Start date
nysestocks
Guest
Quote from palinuro:
On the contrary, it appears to maintain its position despite considerably increased risk - somebody up close with a video camera.
I can only conclude that nyse had cleverly disguised himself, while confounding the bird with another devilish puzzle.
- palinuro
Brilliant, but I prefer to be more discrete, and not stick out like a "big bird"
What about the reference to the usual holiday visitors - surely that implies something:eek:
BTW, where is that JC2, I have a bone to pick with him
but we may be near the end now, let's see what happens:eek:
nysestocks
Guest
A stock price can only do three things;
1. Move Up
2. Move Down
3. Not move at ALL!
No. 3 is only applicable if we trade mickey mouse stocks - which we of course never do, or if the company goes to the wall, for whatever reason.
Volume, hmm - I can see Mr Chocolate oozing out of his wrapper again - is nothing more than price moving - who gives a shite how big it is, or how small it is - for how do you know what has already happened, and what is more important, for the "average" trader, is why the fuck would you want to know - are you looking after a $10 Billion fund, for if you are, then what the fuck are you doing here reading posts from a bunch of mad people - I am glad I haven't given you my hard earned cash to look after
nysestocks
Guest
SS, if only you knew the real truth, you would not believe it!
The only pairs I like are, well, I canât say them here
How do you distinguish something of "value" from something that will just waste more of your "time"!
How long would $1K last YOU if you lost 10 trades in a row - based on what you think is a "fair" bet to place?
I am surprised when I hear "maths" mentioned, and yet, it appears that most do not even know that I+I = II
What is the real answer - for it looks like one thing, depending on how close you are, but it "actually" means another thing
nysestocks
Guest
Quote from nysestocks:
Brilliant, but I prefer to be more discrete, and not stick out like a "big bird"
What about the reference to the usual holiday visitors - surely that implies something:eek:
BTW, where is that JC2, I have a bone to pick with him
but we may be near the end now, let's see what happens:eek:
This is before the calm came into being
nysestocks
Guest
Maybe it is better to keep away from the likes of the "panic" birds - as you can see what it does to an Ostrich
I remember not too long ago, seeing 238 size on the offer, and might as well have been ZERO on the bid - yes, that was, might as well been ZERO on the bid, on the YM:eek:
Until you have experienced a limit locked market, you have not experienced real panic
Every few minutes, some smart ass traders were hitting the offers at exactly 4 contracts per trade.
When the market opened, it dipped a bit lower, but boy did it bounce later, and for every 4 contracts traded, the smart ass traders made about $4K - they were fucking "crazy", but they made good money that day
nysestocks
Guest
Here is a real test
When the replies count for this thread hits 1000 - no more posts!
Let's see who can C.O.N.T.R.O.L themselves
When the replies count for this thread hits 1000 - no more posts!
Let's see who can C.O.N.T.R.O.L themselves
Indeed the power laws prevail and since induction is not a necessity and deduction from the language of markets is always available, it is best to look at the the leading indicator of price for guidance.
I particularly like the expert level of trading using hold/reversal strategies. Taking anything that could be construed as "misleading" requires the consideration of how to look in the right places at the right time for what the market "tells".
For what ever reason, I tag this effort as "steer and focus". up to about 100 milliscond cycles of mental activity (doing the monitor, analysis, decide and taking timely action) using a display where various panels take you out ahead of price action considerably, you have a nice mental processing advantage that assures no "misleading" from any of the tells.
Using a dashboard and lights is a requirement when you are operating under 10 milliseconds in terms of data processing cyles or loops. Steering is done by filtering and focusing is done by gating and manifying what is pertinent. Usually it is possible to extract at a more or less violent pace when the "tells" are read at this level. A typical range of three points will yield over 11 points net under these conditions in an hour and a half.
Most commonly it is possible to see the "tells" of four games ordinarily programmed into the market by the powers that be. I look at them through a three dimensional prism visually and more dimensions automatically where the cycle frequency greatly exceeds the human rate of perception.
Since price is the laggard, it is like a very slow motion experience where there is ample time at all times. In the past I ID'ed these display aspects in the forums on computer setups and the like.
The market tattoo boils down to the "tells" of smart money and market gamers. There is a difference between smart money and big money. Big money is very stupid and dull.
Measures, as usual, come down to using differential calculus via "frequentist" statistics. time rate of change of compression is extremely important as is using a signal carrier to calculate the dervatives of what is leading price.
The best carrier is the premium of the market that leads the market in which the price is being traded.
Volume of the minority (the minority controls as is well known), and specifically it time rate of change to the vanishing point is roughly where the rubber meets the road. the time rate of change of successive vanishing points is very relevant as expected.
This all makes trading, roughly speaking, a gliding exercise since it is so smooth as to how turns are made to optimally extract the successive segments of the offer.
What fools those who operate analytically or intuitively by induction? Obviously the disturbance (mentally) that comes happens when the inductor gets too close and analysis and intuition are disrupted.
Two tests reveal the effect of this disruption of being too close: a winning test and a losing test.
Induction leads to thinking in terms of probabilities. the word that reveal this error is going on is the word "edge". deduction does not deal in "edges" as is known. When thehypothesis set is reduced to mutually exclusive bianary states, probability disappears from the foundation (paradigm or algorithm).
Lets looks at the two tests that show what goes wrong when trader's analysis and intuition are disrupted. Mental stress is the cause of the disruption. Incoherence reigns as the tests show.
winning test. here are the probability and amount to be won:
90% little
10% a lot
losing test. Here are the probability and amount to be lost:
80% little
20% a lot
Under stress, the tested traders made the wrong choice in each test. They are followers of conventional wisdom; the OODA of John Boyd; and they do inductive hypothesizing in the D part of OODA. Read Steenbarger to see and understand the pyschologial treatments administered for people who are exhibiting this incoherence.
The excessive high failure rate of traders and what sushi claims to be a 100% demise over less than 20 years is the result.
I have traded over 50 years using deduction and the routine known as MADA. It has become well known that I do not use rules but instead I read the markets by the use of the language of the markets.
A person here has recently commented (his handle is a collection of commodity symbols (market words in the language)) on me and my ways and communications. He thinks for some reason that I could not be part of the financial industry. when i lived in grennwich, I did, as a courtesy, participate at luncheons at a club of "white paper" writers who listened to speakers. My job was to write out Q's to be sked by a member. a convention ensued. after dining was over, the speaker would come to my table and so would others. One thing happened repeatedly: the speaker wanted to know who the hell I was and where I came from.
Who i was in that time was a guy who was paid in low thress digits portal to portal and who was offer a partnership (within two years) in a large "white paper" mill. In Switzerland, that organization pursued me in Zurich at ever opportunity. I had one other job: I fixed their white papers at the same rate and they were couried to Greenwich or Switzerland.
In the end it comes down to the joke about what is the definition of a full time trader? Look at the print I posted recently to figure the answer out. It shows a net of 46,500 made in 146 minutes with 20,000 dollars capital. I should travel to an office for some reason to work for a company in Chicago or NYC? A doctor earns four times the 46,500 after going through schooling.
Induction is a riddle. I happen to know that. Taleb just figured out what happens to people who are let loose to do induction in big cities at big offices. My pool is at 85 degrees and I keep it that way by solar heating it with a 1 horsepower pump. If I wanted to swim for 146 minutes, how much would it cost me in a money stream of 20,000 bucks? what is the cost for holding 100,000 shares where I can net 17 points (dollars a share over 6 to 8 days, or less? Think 30 dollar stock for the capitalization.
I only swim for 20 minutes or 4 ES bars as it is called.
The reason I don't smoke is that I can't afford to take the time off.
I threw in some humor because so many peopple are so serious here. the word count is approximately 1393.