Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?
- Thread starter nysestocks
- Start date
It is obvious that entering a trade, I may be wrong or right.,
Now, if I know that I can be wrong or right, what is the % of time I am right vs wrong.
What is the amt I will risk to be wrong or right.
Most traders once they are wrong, will revenge trade. This is obvious, just like the pros who play poker will go on tilt.
So can I determine how the market will look if I am right, and can I determine what the market will look like if I am wrong.
Also, since I can be wrong, I don't want to "bet" all my money on one hand which I could be wrong. Also, I don't want to risk an event that if I am wrong will take me out of the game.
What risk are we accepting. For example, if we sell premium like AIG with a 30 to 1 leverage, what happens when the black swan comes calling. Did the trader or company put in any risk management. No, they did not understand what they were actually doing until it was too late. However, the benefit of using other people's money for the traders is that they got bonus no matter what and had the fed step in. So if you can accumulate enough wealth that your bet will destroy the financial markets, you have a way out that a normal trader who would get margin called does not. So its obvious that being a hedge fund is the best way to make money. Being a hedge fund, you don't even have to trade to make $ billions. You just have to pay the previous investors with money from the present investors. This is the what is so obvious that even the op does not understand. This is the true edge and holy grail.
Now, if I know that I can be wrong or right, what is the % of time I am right vs wrong.
What is the amt I will risk to be wrong or right.
Most traders once they are wrong, will revenge trade. This is obvious, just like the pros who play poker will go on tilt.
So can I determine how the market will look if I am right, and can I determine what the market will look like if I am wrong.
Also, since I can be wrong, I don't want to "bet" all my money on one hand which I could be wrong. Also, I don't want to risk an event that if I am wrong will take me out of the game.
What risk are we accepting. For example, if we sell premium like AIG with a 30 to 1 leverage, what happens when the black swan comes calling. Did the trader or company put in any risk management. No, they did not understand what they were actually doing until it was too late. However, the benefit of using other people's money for the traders is that they got bonus no matter what and had the fed step in. So if you can accumulate enough wealth that your bet will destroy the financial markets, you have a way out that a normal trader who would get margin called does not. So its obvious that being a hedge fund is the best way to make money. Being a hedge fund, you don't even have to trade to make $ billions. You just have to pay the previous investors with money from the present investors. This is the what is so obvious that even the op does not understand. This is the true edge and holy grail.
nysestocks
Guest
It is very obvious that you do not know, or understand, what it is I am talking about.
If a hedge fund had access to the information that I have gained access to, they would make Warren Buffet look like a tidily winks player!
But, they would need to be very clever and not arouse too much interest in their dealings - which would be very hard when one is talking about trading $billions!
So, for the purpose of the ordinary man in the street, which is the one I am interested in helping, I will continue to post as I see fit.
Those who will take the time to work out what it is I post about, will not regret it one little bit.
As for the big hedge funds, they are the ones that I, and my like, take money from each and every day. It is like taking candy off a baby
nysestocks
Guest
nysestocks
Guest
You must be able to know the difference between a high risk entry and a low risk entry.
This will be different for everyone, except for the small few that know, where it is always nearly the same!
nysestocks
Guest
I can't remember - was it the student!
nysestocks
Guest
Quote from traderbigt:
NYSEstocks:
The chart(s) are not market based, but are noise randomly, (like most market specific moves short term) like a Cardiologist/Radiologist medical chart.
It is thrown in as a zinger to prove a point about the tendency of humans to "see" "patterns" in things like stock charts when non-market noise depictions seem to show the same attributes.
The 2 charts are indeed 2 different real markets!
nysestocks
Guest
If you are, then you know exactly what I am doing!
The reality is as follows - any time you put your money at risk you are taking a gamble with it!
One can argue against this fact day and night, but it will not change the reality of risk taking!
Of course you have to play like the casino - for everyone knows that the casino always makes money, and lots of it!
It does not bother me one bit in the least how I come across, nor should it bother any person likewise!
The only thing that a person should be concerned about is his/her trading account balance - for that is all that matters!
nysestocks
Guest
BLASH is not the same as BSLASH!
SHABL is not the same as SSHABL!
If you try and do something that you do not know about, you might find out that things don't go that well for you.
For some silly reason, mostly due to so called "experts", the majority of people think that they can do something very well with something that they know absolutely nothing about!
Is the world not a funny place!