Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Quote from nysestocks:

I have no time for basic truths, as the markets do not have any such people running them!

I know that what they preach and make available is nothing short of lies and deceit.

It is better to leave valuations and predictions to the "experts":D

Me, and my like, well, lets just say that we are the magicians of the stock market.

To many, we can make it seem impossible, but to the few that know, it is as easy as pulling a rabbit out of a hat, or making an Island disappear - take your pick, the illusion is yours to chose!
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Thank you for your frank answer, enjoy your time with the mice!

Regards

Johno
 
Quote from TraderD:

how can one guess the market?

these charts could represent even the same market, but with different size of PNF box

the markets may be guessed (by someone good) if you tell more about size of box and how you have chosen the box size for each market
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That is the whole point!

Who ever gets the charts right knows something about the markets.

It really is not that hard if you stop and think!

If I say the markets now, then I will only do those that want to think an injustice.

For those who do not want to work it out - fine, but I am not interested in holding people's hands in case they fall - much better they slip a few times and get back up, then they wont fall as fast the next time!
 
How about we dismiss all this talk about "expectancy", and how it will allow you to make more money trading!

As someone has already explained it better than me, I will borrow some text to explain.

If you want the book I am sure you can find it after a few simple searches - that is how I got it :D

"We can calculate the odds of a series of coin flips or rolls of dice, but for many
real trading scenarios a strictly mathematical approach is not possible and our
intuition is inadequate. It would be nice to describe trade results in some compact
and easy mathematical formula. One tool that has been used is expectancy,
which is the most probable return for an event. What we will discover is
that expectancy is easily misused when it is extended to a series of events or
trades. When it is extended to a series of trades it must be compounded and
also account for the risk management strategy that is used. It fact there are
two types of expectancy that are presented in a later chapter. Even introducing
a second type does not solve the problem of comparing various methods of trading.
The fact is, there are a wide range of possible outcomes and a single number
like expectancy cannot describe the whole population of possible results."
 
Trader D is making me feel bad - I must be getting soft in my old age:D

Hints in no specific order.

100th of one plus seven

Over thirty at thirty six
 
Quote from Johno:

Buy low sell high, you've heard it a lot but do you really comprehend the requirements and implications inherent in achieving this? Consider their approaches carefully for these people ( the successful ones ) are truely traders in their chosen fields.

Regards

Johno
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Johno, I'm not entirely sure about the first part of your comment, or even what you were implying with the above quote. However, the part about prospective (and existing) traders not comprehending the requirements and implications inherent in buying low and selling high or buying high and selling higher really stood out to me.

What is apparent and yet not so obvious to many, is that repeating "sell high and buy lower" or "buy high and sell higher" is totally different than actually being able to psychologically do this in practice when it's your livelihood that is relatively at risk in every single trade. I do it everyday, so I'm not speaking as a spectator.

The fact that risk is implicit in every trade is something that I think most people on this website have difficulty accepting. Largely because they began trading without sufficient prep or guidance and became fearful of losing which, makes it difficult for them now to pull the trigger and overcome memories of how it felt to be wrong (lose) over and over in the past. That is assuming of course your style or strategy is profitable -- or that you're capable of trading it anyway.

What isn't initially obvious to new traders is that what is at risk in each trade is more than $$$$. To make the $$$$, you have to be more careful about how you take risks with the intangible things that you risk in every trade.

I don't know why the obvious is not so obvious. I don't even know what the aim of that question is. Maybe 'obvious' is only relative to your perspective. Maybe using the word obvious is far too open-ended to actually attract an accurate response.

Either way, this is a good thread. I rarely post and this is definitely my longest post ever.
 
Quote from nysestocks:

Sometimes I just get fed up and want to tell people, but I know if I do then it is ruined for the select group that know, so, all I can do is continue to try and lead some traders closer to seeing, and believing, that nearly all of the "stuff" that they will read and hear from other traders, is nothing short of rubbish!

I am not being a big headed, over inflated egoistic old badger here, I am just speaking what I know to be the truth!

So I will continue as I see fit - those who want to participate can do so, with the guarantee that they will learn something of value, and those who do not want to participate can go the hell where they like, for I really don’t give a damn what they say or do :D
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Is the secret that price does not really represent what one would initially assume it represents?

...or at least not all the time?
 
Guys,

I am sick to the teeth of so called "experts" trying to explain to traders how they will make money.

The reality is that it is very hard to take money from other traders!

If you are smart enough to understand what it is I am talking about, then you will stand a far better chance than most!

This is not rubbish talk - it is just plain and simple facts!

Most so called "experts" are nothing short of idots, as they are living an illussion!

Believe me when I say they do not know how the markets really operate.
 
"7:3" ...no problem. -A little better actually. -For years.
"taking money from other traders" ...no sweat. -Do it every day.
"Stupidly give it back" ...bingo!

Guess I answered my own question...
 
NYSEstocks:

The chart(s) are not market based, but are noise randomly, (like most market specific moves short term) like a Cardiologist/Radiologist medical chart.

It is thrown in as a zinger to prove a point about the tendency of humans to "see" "patterns" in things like stock charts when non-market noise depictions seem to show the same attributes.

:cool:
 
Given your comments hinting at aspects of the EMT, while noting the difficulty of taking money from other traders, it is amazing people are not able to get the crux of your arguments.

It is also fair and correct to keep it a secret, for reasons already discussed and a host of others less impacting on those in the know.

Further, I mostly but do not entirely agree trading is gambling, it is calculated speculation, which is not the same as gambling in the sense most understand it.

If you have the edge, as a casino does, they cannot account for the linear *distribution* of wins or losses, but their edge on each play due to rules implementation assures them of winning over time.

I agree with most of your assertions, though, you do not come across too well but that is not the point here...
 
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