Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[Vindago]

The only sign that I can see is the October monthly bar rejecting the high, that is often a signal for reversal...

 

[Wide Tailz]

Well, yeah, pretty obvious in hindsight. Now, tell me what will happen in the next few months.

You completely missed the point of this thread, which was mostly an intelligence test, and does hold many clues to a very lucrative trading method, if you have the brains to "work it out", as the OP said many times.

As far as the other clown, I appreciate him and his videos. We all need to lighten up once in awhile!

 

[Wide Tailz]

The only sign that I can see is the October monthly bar rejecting the high, that is often a signal for reversal...

Useful, but not "the obvious"

 

[Pelt]

Useful, but not "the obvious"

?

 

[Laissez Faire]

Useful, but not "the obvious"

Curious...

Are you making good money now using "the obvious"?

Thank you.

 

[Wide Tailz]

I don't bet big so I don't take big money out of the market, but The Obvious has been performing consistently well since I finally saw it. My other momentum based method got whipsawed badly starting a few months ago, and I realized the market conditions changed. It became time to BLSH instead of BHSH

 

[Wide Tailz]

?

Of all the diagramz in this thread that may be the least worst, because shows where you might be able to BLSH, but as the OP stated - unless the obvious is known it can easily become BLLL. This riddle is easily solved with risk management...........

 

[Pelt]

Shows how little I know, I thought that was more representative of BHSH

 

[Traderz]

Co worker across the gray wall where I work is beside himself watching TSLA put in a good earnings report and spectacular forecast, yet the stock is still down. NVDA, MSFT, UPST, all making good profits and yet getting whacked bigly.

I tried to explain some of the foundation of The Obvious to him but it just didn't register in his mind.

Insurance companies have seen a ~40% increase in deaths in 2021 compared to the historic average, which is many standard deviations above their worst case model. They need to pay out life insurance policies and are selling assets to do so. It's much easier to sell something showing a profit than a loss, so they are lightening up on their winning trades. This is one of many capital flows driving the tech wreck we're seeing now, but all he can think about is bottom-up analysis.

Do you remember the early posts about Mr. Boyd and his mom, always looking to improve position relative to the enemy and not saying a word about it? Big money is doing this now, or may have been doing it for many months already. Mr. Musk sure got out at a good time......

The only question there really is, "are you a muppet?"

I wonder if there is a rational explanation for this. Might have to do some poking around.

 

[Pelt]

... but as the OP stated - unless the obvious is known it can easily become BLLL. This riddle is easily solved with risk management...........

I can only think of ONE reason why BLSH turns into BLLL. But the answer is pure textbook info, that everyone else has also.