Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[sandy_s]

Well, I've learned that I'm no good at speculating.

I suppose the sensible thing to do now would be to just put the £9k in a conservative fund. But even if it doubled by the time I'm 70 (in just over 10 years) it would hardly be much use as a pension.

A useful sum would be over £100k but that would require 1000% growth in 10 years. Which would presumably involve high-risk/gambling?

Jeez...

I can only say - please don’t do that gambling.

Trading is unfortunately not only about high IQ.

Every instrument is different in terms of movement, etc. It would literally take years of looking at the charts before one can find an edge...

And even then...you need to be able to stand the heat of the moment - to win great. And come out with limited casualty when things are going wrong.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Trading is unfortunately not only about high IQ.

In my experience, a moderately high IQ is detrimental to good trading. There is a meme about this... Ah here it is. I'm personally (supposedly) at 135 or so and I was the middle guy for some time.

 

[sandy_s]

In my experience, a moderately high IQ is detrimental to good trading. There is a meme about this... Ah here it is. I'm personally (supposedly) at 135 or so and I was the middle guy for some time.

Probably you mean - high IQ or trying to use that “I” while in the action is detrimental

You need to use whatever of it you have to prepare for the action. And that preparation time can be quite long....

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Probably you mean - high IQ or trying to use that “I” while in the action is detrimental

If I understand you correctly, I think it's more like when you are smart in other areas you think that translates to the market. It can, but not in the way that you think. With a "high IQ" you have to actually dumb yourself down and stop trying to be right all the time.

 

[sandy_s]

If I understand you correctly, I think it's more like when you are smart in other areas you think that translates to the market. It can, but not in the way that you think. With a "high IQ" you have to actually dumb yourself down and stop trying to be right all the time.

That is exactly right....

 

[Ed48]

I can only say - please don’t do that gambling.

Here's the thing though. It doesn't really matter.

Option 1
Invest the £9k pension fund in something conservative and sensible.
Best case scenario, 10% p.a. Perhaps doubling capital in 10 years.
£18k pension fund in 10 years won't make much difference to standard of living in retirement.

Option 2
Gamble the £9k.
Lose the lot.
Won't make much difference to standard of living in retirement.

 

[sandy_s]

That is exactly right....

Here's the thing though. It doesn't really matter.

Option 1
Invest the £9k pension fund in something conservative and sensible.
Best case scenario, 10% p.a. Perhaps doubling capital in 10 years.
£18k pension fund in 10 years won't make much difference to standard of living in retirement.

Option 2
Gamble the £9k.
Lose the lot.
Won't make much difference to standard of living in retirement.

umm...trading is not gambling in the sense where outcome is based on coin toss.

 

[Ed48]

umm...trading is not gambling in the sense where outcome is based on coin toss.

The >90% trader failure rate suggests the overwhelming majority of traders do worse than random coin toss.

 

[Pelt]

umm...trading is not gambling in the sense where outcome is based on coin toss.

I did a random coin toss experiment on a live account HERE. Always something I wanted to do, had a good guess what the outcome would be, but just needed to see it for myself.

 

[sandy_s]

The >90% trader failure rate suggests the overwhelming majority of traders do worse than random coin toss.

Yes - the failure rate is high...but the remaining 10% is consistently making money...

food for thought...