Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

an important point about trading..if you are exiting a trade..then it might well be worth reversing..as..why not if you think it might go the other way?
 
the estimate is qualitative and not quantitative, based on volatility on the day. There were good day traded on the 30/11 not so much the other days
 
Vindago said:
the estimate is qualitative and not quantitative, based on volatility on the day. There were good day traded on the 30/11 not so much the other days
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let's see what a few more say..then i will post my details which of course may be wrong..but will explain the reason why..so you can correct me if i am wrong?

yes..it is kinda predictable at the current time..but that sort of attitude can lead to big losses..so just best to trade as best you can..when you can

if you can't sit in front of the big screen..then you definitely should not be trading the ES..the MES has more leeway due to reduced risk..but can..none the less catch you out

that closing trade made about $80..have to check..but i think it was down about $200 at times..anyway..the exit was based on the charts..which is always the best way..and..the entry also..of course
 
M4-1 said:
here is an experiment..

state what % figure you think should be filled in for each day of last week..the % is for the number of traded contracts on the ES that were opened and closed on the same day out of the total number of contracts that were traded for each day..or..what we will call for now..speculative trades

i have the figures done and will post after a few people answer..we will then ask some "expert" in this field to say who is correct..close enough..or way off..if anyone !

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well, I think "Google" is there for a reason ;)

quote:
"Volume" refers to the number of contracts traded in a given period, and "open interest" denotes the number of contracts that are active, or not settled.

That means, all Volume, that is not "open interest" have been filled.
So, to get the numbers of the poster I have to calculate the ratio of total volume and open interest of the respecitve day
 
fairvalue said:
well, I think "Google" is there for a reason ;)

quote:
"Volume" refers to the number of contracts traded in a given period, and "open interest" denotes the number of contracts that are active, or not settled.

So, to get the numbers of the poster I have to calculate the ratio of total volume and open interest of these days
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correct..i think :)

open interest is of course what it says..how many contracts are open..for every buyer there has to be a seller..so..at close of day..we will have a change in OI..it will either increase..or decrease..depending on the volume traded..but..if the volume traded is high..lets just say 1.4 million contracts..and the OI only changes by + 60,000 contracts..what does that tell us about the ES trading for the day in question ?


don't forget to write down your %s..either guessing or working out !
 
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now the hard bit..very easy to understand the OI and Volume..or so we think at the moment..but let's go on that assumption..it is simple maths !

next..we know the index futures market is a free for all market..as in..no market makers required for the most liquid futures contracts..although newly launched contracts have MM's like the MES..and no doubt MM's trade the ES futures market..but..the options markets are different..due to the high risk associated with selling naked puts..and high margin requirements..and..some brokers will not allow short selling of options in certain types of accounts

so what..well we therefore assume that the options market is not a free for all in the same way as the futures market..and as such..will always require market makers..

if any expert want's to jump in and correct me here..fell free before i continue with the assumptions !
 
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