Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

a lesson from History

the crowd is a very dangerous thing..i recently watched some documentaries about the nazi concentration camps..and was shocked to discover how many camps they actually had across Europe..we only hear of the famous ones like Auschwitz and Belsen..but off hand..they had a few hundred camps !!!!!

to see what otherwise normal people can do..when the wrong people are in the right place at the right time..is astonishing..it shows the crowd mentality and how it can ruin countless lives

be very careful of the "crowd"..as the silly internet is even worse than anything that has gone before..and..always know that 99.99 % are clueless about trading and making money.. especially the ones who are "selling"
 
Newc2 said:
i have a simple trading philosophy.
buy stuff moving up and always keep in mind that momentum wanes the longer that time progresses
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yes..but it pays to try and understand why..an important aspect at the moment is the amount of money that is sitting on the sidelines..most have missed out on the bull run since 2012..the dooms day sayers might have to wait a little bit longer..but..as always..we do not guess..we must look and observe..and..act accordingly
 
MrScalper said:
yes..but when is the real question :)

it is very easy to know actually..and..what comes down can suddenly stop coming down and go back up again..one of the biggest mistakes that most make is trying to guess..when a cheetah races off after it's prey it does not guess what way it will turn..it follows it as it turns..by using it's tail as a rudder..if it guessed it would be extinct centuries ago :)
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The cheetah needs to follow close enough to get his prey, but too close he will overshoot, too far he cannot catch his prey.

I cannot day trade very well using only daily charts.
 
ironchef said:
The cheetah needs to follow close enough to get his prey, but too close he will overshoot, too far he cannot catch his prey.

I cannot day trade very well using only daily charts.
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you do not daytrade using only daily charts..you can use 5..10..30..60 and Daily..the 1 min can be very jittery depending on the chosen market
 
Newc2 said:
i've heard this saying before

"amateurs open the market. professional close the market"

what does this mean?
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i suppose it refers to market on open orders that some people use..and i suppose the closing refers to market makers balancing their books..of course..i think those words were meant specifically for the NYSE stock market..as futures markets are a different ball game

either way..it does not matter..do you know why?
 
MrScalper said:
you do not daytrade using only daily charts..you can use 5..10..30..60 and Daily..the 1 min can be very jittery depending on the chosen market
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Agree. That was my point, 1 min chart, too close too jittery, 1 day too far to catch the daily moves, so yes, 5, 10...:thumbsup:

The analogy to cheetah hunting is actually more appropriate that I first realized: We carefully select our prey (the stock to trade), stalk our prey (put on our watch list), then at the right moment start our chase and catch (entry and exit to collect our profit).

Bars by themselves are still not reliable signals for me but a combination of bars and patterns seemed to be working better. Once I am able to reliably see daily, weekly charts for swing trade options, I hope to graduate to 5..10..etc. for day trade options.

Happy Thanksgiving to you.
 
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