Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

_eug_ said:
I dono man, trend lines work great in hindsight but I cant figure out how to draw them properly on a live chart. How do you know which lows or highs to connect?
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I totally agree. But let me offer you my non professional, amateur opinion:

In the last couple of months often, when I was staring at a live chart, by the time a trend line showed up and I drew the line, the trend was mostly over or worse reversed, especially for min. charts. So, one has to look for other indicators - leading indicators instead of lagging indicators (trend line). For longer time frame charts (daily, better still weekly), the trends develop slower and I am beginning to develop some sense or just lucky guessed (GILD)?
 
_eug_ said:
It is a combination of not believing in what I am seeing and not trusting what I know has a high probability of happening. I mean Gold did exactly what I expected... Profit taking at resistance 1259 which brought it down to another key level 1243 which I noted yesterday. This is where new buyers stepped up looks like now. This is where I am hoping lots of experience will come in...the ability to trust my analysis.

I have decent amount of capital sitting aside but I am for now trading a very small account or paper trading as I do not trust myself with my real capital until I can prove myself successful and disciplined.

I dont take signals from the MACD, I just added it a few days ago to help me visualize changes in momentum as we approach levels.

When you talk about 123, are you referring to the reversal pattern like this image or is it something else?

Number 2 being the "reference point" you elude to..
View attachment 176019

Whether you are a successful trader or not I appreciate you taking the time to question my analysis and charts that I post as this game is mostly me talking to myself.
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The only thing that matters is if what I say makes any sense!

IMG_20170727_133422.jpg
 
MrScalper said:
Actually..that raises a v.g point about levels..have a look again..can you see anything that appears common to a trend line..or..can you see anything that happens that allows this trend line to be drawn on a chart..where it touches..or gets very close to touching..price!

As for where to start..well..try looking for a 123 on the daily..then see!
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surf's up
 
MrScalper said:
What if I said..buy above 1265..sell below 1260!
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I have been watching the market intently with the "123" and the levels progression in mind and I think I finally understand what you are trying to show me here. :)

No more predicting... just follow the price.
 
MrScalper said:
The reason why you do not see..is because of the way you think!

We all see the same thing..it is your mind that determines what you see.. change the way you think and you will change what you see!

You can make as much..or lose as much..as you want..it all depends on what level you buy and sell at..pure and simple!
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It is interesting how they are all linked. These are all 5 min charts:
AAPL:
upload_2017-7-28_6-27-18.png

GOOGL:
upload_2017-7-28_6-27-58.png

MSFT:
upload_2017-7-28_6-28-36.png


So, after staring at them all day, I think I am getting a feeling there are information within the price movements that perhaps I can extract and use them to trade. And if I am successful, I can move back to shorter time frame trading. By the way, if I watched GOOGL and trade MSFT, I would get a jump on MSFT price move yesterday and make a killing.

And, if I am day trading, news and events happening in real time will move the price so I have to pay attention to everything. A lot of work!
 
ironchef said:
?? Sorry, don't understand your cryptic messages.
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marketsurf was a longtime ET resident charlatan and our Mr Scalper was a confederate of "surf". As surf had a number of aliases, his confederates are often taken for him.
 
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