Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

[Handle123]

Even though I been working at learning more on just trading options as systems by themselves past 3 years, am a newb at them. I have always used them mainly as hedges for commodities and once in while for covered calls. So I am like kid at candy store of seeing all one can do with them.

Are there patterns being it is last day of what they will do or just coin flip in general?
I think when markets trend are only times parts of them are not controlled, but ES one of the most controlled markets and why so many trade them, many are enticed to trade ES cause of great volume for a futures market. Although, if one is doing spreads, I think financials do better.

I doubt OPEC can control anything right now no matter how many meetings they have, Iran turning on the pumps in huge way so as to make up for lost years of little funds. I think they only say they made agreements to make crude go up for few days. I doubt the countries that rely so heavily on selling crude can now reduce anything.

Time to start pumping Crude Oil back into the ground?
http://swamplot.com/fairway-looks-to-re-bury-black-gold-at-the-south-610-loop/2015-12-07/

Everyday is interesting last several months and guessing till USA gets new President too.

 

[SkyChef]

My TOS & Yahoo option chain indicate 48K OI each side on SPX Feb 19, 1900. BigChart & Marketwatch option chain indicate 14K each side and so is your data, JS (I think).
The decreasing OI makes more sense so maybe the index might go up first then going down?

 

[J_Smith]

Day off today, spending some money on garden stuff.

I was recently contacted by a trader who thought he needed help, but I am happy to say that he himself seen the problems that trading with borrowed money can cause, and he has decided to stop trading, and stop losing money.

All I will say, is, you can contact me anytime you want, at any future date, whenever you feel the time is right, and if I can help at all, I will, but you now know the only person that can really help you, is, yourself.

Always know that there is always someone else far worse off than you, no matter how bad a situation you find yourself in, so live life and enjoy everyday, for we won't be around forever.

J_S

 

[SkyChef]

I keep all of this in mind, JS.
If my wife can love this guy through thick & thin, I'm pretty sure I can find something in him to love him.

 

[Mysteron]

Day off today, spending some money on garden stuff.

I was recently contacted by a trader who thought he needed help, but I am happy to say that he himself seen the problems that trading with borrowed money can cause, and he has decided to stop trading, and stop losing money.

All I will say, is, you can contact me anytime you want, at any future date, whenever you feel the time is right, and if I can help at all, I will, but you now know the only person that can really help you, is, yourself.

Always know that there is always someone else far worse off than you, no matter how bad a situation you find yourself in, so live life and enjoy everyday, for we won't be around forever.

J_S

Thats very true and things can happen out of the blue with no warning.

In 2013 a friend of mine at the age of 50 had undiagnosed diabetes and high blood pressure which caused a blood clot to develop. He suffered a stroke and was initially in "locked in syndrome", only able to communicate by moving his eyes. He has recovered to an extent and can now swallow and eat normally but requires assistance. There is slight movement in his arms and legs but he is quadraplegic, has difficulty speaking and is living in a nursing home, probably for the rest of his life. He can drive an electric wheelchair by using a chin control and he can use a PC equipped with a "Tobii PCEye GO" eye tracking device. He just sent me an email saying how frustrated he was today because the staff didn't understand him when he asked for a drink although he did get one eventually. Despite all that, he says that he is better off than some others there. Having seen some of the other residents I have to agree with him.

 

[J_Smith]

I keep all of this in mind, JS.
If my wife can love this guy through thick & thin, I'm pretty sure I can find something in him to love him.

You don't have to love him, just give him a good kick up the arse, and tell him to get on with what needs to be done, which of course is not the easy way, and why most who try, will fail, no matter what system, method, approach they use, or whatever you want to call it.

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

Thats very true and things can happen out of the blue with no warning.

In 2013 a friend of mine at the age of 50 had undiagnosed diabetes and high blood pressure which caused a blood clot to develop. He suffered a stroke and was initially in "locked in syndrome", only able to communicate by moving his eyes. He has recovered to an extent and can now swallow and eat normally but requires assistance. There is slight movement in his arms and legs but he is quadraplegic, has difficulty speaking and is living in a nursing home, probably for the rest of his life. He can drive an electric wheelchair by using a chin control and he can use a PC equipped with a "Tobii PCEye GO" eye tracking device. He just sent me an email saying how frustrated he was today because the staff didn't understand him when he asked for a drink although he did get one eventually. Despite all that, he says that he is better off than some others there. Having seen some of the other residents I have to agree with him.

Yes MN, we never know, that is for sure!

Who really cares who has made 2 ticks on 224 ES contracts today, many times over, or who has put on a spread that will make $10K in a month or so with virtually no risk, or whatever else any other person has done, or has not done, for it will not change what we do, or have, one little bit, so why even bother to waste precious brain time on such trivial things.

Did you see the TV programme just finished on the brain, on BBC4 I think, and how genocide is made possible by propaganda, it was a very interesting programme, and confirmed to me that I was 100% correct to change my way of thinking after my brief study of History some years ago.

To think how a small group of people, through propaganda, can cause otherwise normal people to commit genocide on a massive scale, most recent being Bosnia, is, to say the least, unbelievable, and just shows really how powerful information is, and how easily people can be manipulated and controlled.

Trading information is not much different, in that, it causes people to do things that they would not normally do, as in throw away hard earned money, so one should be very careful what one looks at and listens to, as a little bit of information can be a very dangerous thing, when continually shoved in peoples faces!

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

Regarding SPX expiry.

J_S

SPX close @ 17Dec15 = 2041.89

SP500 SET Dec15 = 2029.72

======================

SPX close @ 14Jan16 = 1921.28

SP500 SET Jan16 = 1866.72

Is anyone else thinking what I am thinking!

Not sure if I am reading this right, but I am going to make it my business to find out, so if we have any SPX option gurus out there, who want to show how smart they are, please feel free to educate us plebs, and save us some time and money

SPX close @ 18Feb16 = 1917.56

SP500 SET Feb16 = _ _ _ _._ _

http://www.cboe.com/products/indexopts/spx_spec.aspx

Last Trading Day:
Trading in SPX options will ordinarily cease on the business day (usually a Thursday) preceding the day on which the exercise-settlement value is calculated.

Settlement Value:
Exercise will result in delivery of cash on the business day following expiration. The exercise-settlement value, SET, is calculated using the opening sales price in the primary market of each component security on the expiration date. The exercise-settlement amount is equal to the difference between the exercise-settlement value and the exercise price of the option, multiplied by $100.

 

[J_Smith]

Even though I been working at learning more on just trading options as systems by themselves past 3 years, am a newb at them. I have always used them mainly as hedges for commodities and once in while for covered calls. So I am like kid at candy store of seeing all one can do with them.

Are there patterns being it is last day of what they will do or just coin flip in general?
I think when markets trend are only times parts of them are not controlled, but ES one of the most controlled markets and why so many trade them, many are enticed to trade ES cause of great volume for a futures market. Although, if one is doing spreads, I think financials do better.

I doubt OPEC can control anything right now no matter how many meetings they have, Iran turning on the pumps in huge way so as to make up for lost years of little funds. I think they only say they made agreements to make crude go up for few days. I doubt the countries that rely so heavily on selling crude can now reduce anything.

Time to start pumping Crude Oil back into the ground?
http://swamplot.com/fairway-looks-to-re-bury-black-gold-at-the-south-610-loop/2015-12-07/

Everyday is interesting last several months and guessing till USA gets new President too.

Interesting read about putting oil back into ground for storage.

Re. the SPX options, well, they are fairly new to me also, but as the SPX is the big picture, I think it makes sense to try and see what way the SPX options are traded, and how the options trading affect the index moves.

A few years ago I had a long call on the FTSE MIB 40, the Italian Stock Index, which makes huge moves on a daily basis, and I thought my call had expired worthless, but to my pleasant surprise my account was up bout 1,500 Euro the next day!

J_S

 

[Handle123]

Interesting read about putting oil back into ground for storage.

Re. the SPX options, well, they are fairly new to me also, but as the SPX is the big picture, I think it makes sense to try and see what way the SPX options are traded, and how the options trading affect the index moves.

A few years ago I had a long call on the FTSE MIB 40, the Italian Stock Index, which makes huge moves on a daily basis, and I thought my call had expired worthless, but to my pleasant surprise my account was up bout 1,500 Euro the next day!

J_S

LOL, I think if you trade enough, all do mistakes or forget about trades that have great outcomes.

Think you right on the SPX as someone doing a 10 lot not going to make a difference as would those who swing big numbers hedging something in New York. I for most part have only traded ES options for hedging possible loss and hedging possible loss of profit, but am going to start trading them and stocks/ETFs just for decay based on direction. For me easier to read charts than having a valid opinion, I recorded for number of years of my opinions, 95% of time would have lost money, LOL

It is never good to start accounts with borrowed money, stress too high, especially if people are married. Better to save up and have joint effort or support than do things behind someone's back.