Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

This section from e48's post

"However, knowing what is required, and knowing how to do it correctly, are not one in the same"

So, "knowing how to do it correctly" - could that be the "inferring" NS is talking about, and if so, what does it mean exactly?

Surely it can't be that "simple" to "do it correctly" - or is it, and that is why most don't even bother to try?

J_S
 
This raises a very interesting point - for some at least!

Options trading - what drives the maths behind the complex formulas, and, what can increase the odds of winning if applied to trading strategies?

J_S
 
This raises a very interesting point - for some at least!

Options trading - what drives the maths behind the complex formulas, and, what can increase the odds of winning if applied to trading strategies?

J_S
I often hear options traders say they don't really look at price charts or any Depth of market type stuff. Basically nothing that directions futures traders seem to use. I have no idea what they look at and how they decide whether something is about to go up or down.
I always wonder if whatever it is that they DO use can be applied to my futures trading.
 
I often hear options traders say they don't really look at price charts or any Depth of market type stuff. Basically nothing that directions futures traders seem to use. I have no idea what they look at and how they decide whether something is about to go up or down.
I always wonder if whatever it is that they DO use can be applied to my futures trading.

Just because a lot of people do something according to what they have been shown, in no way means that there are not other ways that can be used to place low risk trades for potential high reward!

Being different from the rest can have it's benefits!

Hindsight is always easy, but, in conjunction with discussion at hand, would YOU have being enticed to hit the offer at 0.06 here today -10 contracts would have cost you approx $68-74 incl. commissions depending on routing and order type - not a big risk trade, would u agree?

And more importantly, what would entice YOU to risk your money on such a ridiculous low price, for, "everyone" knows that buying cheap options is a losers game!

J_S

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I think this is very apt.

If I told you this was real, you would of course say no, but does it not "LOOK" real!

It is amazing what some people can do with a "picture" :)

J_S

Street-lava-picture-Mueller-560x588.jpg
 
I like this one, as it shows how silly people can be - fighting over a little bag of coins whilst there are plenty of gold bars all around them, just waiting to be picked up - do you think they would behave differently if the gold was real and they knew how to get their hands on it!

J_S

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Do you have an idea of what it might be E48 ?

OK J_S, here is my thought process.

The aim of trading is to make money. Not on every trade but to have a positive overall P&L.

The obvious pre-requisite to this is to have a method that works. Without this, no amount of position sizing and risk management will produce GOOD money. I thought RN's very first post in this thread covered this.

And the obvious is - positive expectancy - why all the subterfuge

But apparently not because the OP replied:

Positive expectancy, aka, making money, will only be a result when the obvious is known!

The problem facing new traders, and what they don't realise, is that virtually everything in the public domain is utter rubbish. No-one, in their right mind, is going to reveal a seriously profitable way of making money. Recognising this, in itself, has been a step forward for me.

I guess the only way is to figure it out for yourself, and I suspect this would be a lot easier for a very young child who hasn't been indoctrinated with all the baggage we adults carry around with us.

Maybe the answer is to visit a local infants school and show the kids a few charts. :D
 
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