Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Quote from The Oracle:

to pick up..yes..if i remember right..was RN not going to start a discussion around IA..and did anyone work out what IA stands for?

glad to see that u are doing ur own thing XX..u see..did TO not say that when u start to think differently u will start to meet and discuss things with different people..those who just might be able to help with understanding things that u do not understand

TO
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Just had a look at my old posts and the last suggestion I made at the time was Inference Analysis, but it doesn't really grab me as being correct. I think Analysis was given as the second word and the first and last letters of the first word were I and e but I'd have preferred Intent as the first word as it is more appropriate for what I'd like to understand when viewing a chart. :cool:
 
Yes I agree and you are right. Cutting through crap information is something that I think I am good at, at least with people. Thats why I hang around on certain threads and keep away from others. In regards to your comment about not becoming one of the many, to me that would mean go where the "many" don't. With that said, most people arent near the top or the bottom of the day in the market. That is one place. I am not saying to pick tops or bottoms (not that there is anything wrong if it works), but thats where most people are not. This comes from seeing the TS where most small traders end up trading closer to the middle of a days range. You can see all the little units going off. Sometimes tops/bottoms are filled with big orders and sometimes they are illiquid. As far how to figure it out for myself, I would think the answer is experience.

Quote from The Oracle:

to pick up..yes..if i remember right..was RN not going to start a discussion around IA..and did anyone work out what IA stands for?

glad to see that u are doing ur own thing XX..u see..did TO not say that when u start to think differently u will start to meet and discuss things with different people..those who just might be able to help with understanding things that u do not understand

TO
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Quote from The Oracle:

so the ES options trading on expiry day

if u are long a weekly (EW) call options contract..and it finishes ITM..then u will be assigned very quickly..so make sure u close out the futures contract before close of business

u can of course keep ur long futures contract open over the weekend..and it may rocket up on open..but it may also tumble down..so do not turn a daytrade into a swingtrade..not worth the risk

make sure u read the contract spec for whatever u are trading..sure i know i don't have to tell u this..as u would do it anyway :D

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equ...dp500_contractSpecs_options.html#prodType=WK1

sure i was lucky it went up after being assigned :)

TO

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Nice trade TO! And why didn't you sell before market close on expiration Friday :confused:
Nevertheless assignments are fun too :)

Also good tips in other post, esp regarding future options as control of risk.
There's another point I would like to mention specifically for US traders - which is section 1256 tax code. SPX cash, future and their options receive favorable tax treatment in form of 60% long term gain and 40% short term gain under section 1256. Of course little guys should be taxed short term rate if they trade stock but big guys can get some break if they trade 'sophisticated' instruments lol.

The Question From The Oracle - Neo and the Vase.
Seeing that no one has taken a stab at this question, I will post my partial thoughts.

When Oracle asked Neo to watch out for the vase, how did she know it will happen? There are two explanations:
a) Oracle had truly predictive powers and she could see in the future Neo knocking off the vase, hence warning him.
b) Oracle understood human psyche well enough (after all running the matrix is no small feat :D), she knew that the act of asking this question will prompt Neo to look for the vase and in the process knocking it over.

Now, if Oracle truly had predictive powers and KNEW for sure the vase will get knocked over, then why bother cautioning Neo? It seems like an exercise in futility. Neo will knock it over no matter what.

So the logical mind comes to conclusion b).

Now you ask what has this shit got to do with trading :D
 
Quote from mekanikal:

Nice trade TO! And why didn't you sell before market close on expiration Friday :confused:
Nevertheless assignments are fun too :)

Also good tips in other post, esp regarding future options as control of risk.
There's another point I would like to mention specifically for US traders - which is section 1256 tax code. SPX cash, future and their options receive favorable tax treatment in form of 60% long term gain and 40% short term gain under section 1256. Of course little guys should be taxed short term rate if they trade stock but big guys can get some break if they trade 'sophisticated' instruments lol.

The Question From The Oracle - Neo and the Vase.
Seeing that no one has taken a stab at this question, I will post my partial thoughts.

When Oracle asked Neo to watch out for the vase, how did she know it will happen? There are two explanations:
a) Oracle had truly predictive powers and she could see in the future Neo knocking off the vase, hence warning him.
b) Oracle understood human psyche well enough (after all running the matrix is no small feat :D), she knew that the act of asking this question will prompt Neo to look for the vase and in the process knocking it over.

Now, if Oracle truly had predictive powers and KNEW for sure the vase will get knocked over, then why bother cautioning Neo? It seems like an exercise in futility. Neo will knock it over no matter what.

So the logical mind comes to conclusion b).

Now you ask what has this shit got to do with trading :D
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hey ML..u are getting as bad as TO..careful or others will think u are strange:D

i noticed something that led me to believe they would run the price down below 1350..as there were a shit load of options bought that day at a certain strike price..do u want to guess what strike it was:)

odds are it would then run back up a bit..so i held..and this time it worked..but no guarantee of course..and as mentioned..just as well i closed or i would have been shittin myself tdy:D

did a test trade with new booktrader setup..seems promising for some quick scalps..but still needs a bit of playing around with the quote/buttons..and remove the crap..should only have what is actually needed and what helps..all else is of no use..will post later

as for matrix..well..b seems to be the best answer:D

TO
 
booktrader..if u do not have an account with IB then u can not set something like this up..although other platforms like ninjatrader..and i am sure lots more also..will do similiar

entered 2 trades..one for short..and one for long..short one entered after long one..as it was not filled..screenshot shows orders just before short was filled..and i was lucky with the stop i picked

had intended this to be a quick trade..either way..win or lose..but after being filled i decided to hold a bit as the chart seemed ok to hold..made 6 ticks for 5 ticks risk..could have made much more if held..but was practice trade for quick scalping..so need to perfect quick scalping by doing same..not holding:D

not happy with buttons yet..and will also change quote panel..as some info of no real value when trading

overall i think it is good and should be beneficial..better than the smaller booktrader..as there are some notable advantages with long screen..can u see what they might be:)

TO

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then TO is filled..and look at all the money..i just hope it goes down instead of up..but the again..i have a stop in..don't i:D

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what comes next???
 
Quote from The Oracle:

i dont think RN did say that XX..we will have to ask him if he turns up?

TO
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I’m here, just nothing germane to add…



XB

As of late TO is talking about options, which I know dick about….

And you are taking about beginning to get your trading feet under you

You’ve been working hard… appears you’re starting to get it, (finding your own way) and I don’t want to derail you….

Iow

Sometimes ya just gotta know when to keep yer mouth shut and stay out of the way so progress/ growth can happen for another



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So if you have a question; ask and I’ll do my best to answer

Otherwise – I’ll keep my mouth shut




Remember; There are gazillion ways to make money trading…. but there is only one unique way – for each of us (which we must suss out to the very last excruciating detail - otherwise we won't follow the damn thing)

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One idea that may help - maybe???

Start focusing on identifying your stop placement FIRST, coincidently the entry will then (should??) start becoming self evident


The stop must always be placed where that specific trade fails…. (set anywhere else and you are simply pissing money away)

iow a price, that once price reaches it – the reason you took the trade, at least for right now (meaning in your trading TF) has been invalidated


Could be a break of the previous swing H/L… could be a break os a horizontal S/R level… could be a break of a upper/ lower channel line/ trend line… could be a after set amount of time… could be a break of the previous candle’s H/L, mid point… could be a break of a recent pullback consolidation (long or short)

What ever it is, it needs to make sense to you… it needs to be in your trading TF… and once identified – you need to sit on your hands and let the damn thing play out


Obviously you’ll need some way to identify price's direction in your trading TF…. And you’ll need to know what potential hurtle(s) exist on a higher TF/ possibly TFs

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Once you can start identifying stop placements easily….

To get good – you'll need to develop the patience to let price get close enough to your “identified stop” to give you a low risk entry


.04 to .06 cents ain’t a bad place to start, but then you already know that (and frustrating as hell ain’t it – but fact is it shouldn’t be)

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One last thought

You don’t trade momentum/ volatility – the same as you would non momentum/ volatility….

So a way to differentiate different market conditions is necessary – as identifying stop placement needs adjusted a bit


Volatility could be present w/ momentum….

But momentum can also exist without volatility….

And price may just as well move without either

Or not





Btw; Please do not focus on my last thought first (though I would bet you will)….. Focus instead on finding stops first…., and gradually working in/ up to my last thought

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This game is all about seeing the chart in front of your face differently than the masses..., then responding to what it is telling you

While always protecting your ass

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I’m present, observing… and willing to cover IA when / if it becomes germane

As for you detractors – pound sand

RN
 
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