Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

The Oracle · Oct 2, 2011

Quote from Zr1Trader:

TO, do you prefer to use line charts most of the time ?

Also, do you like to use a ruler?

if u are using small charts to keep an eye on your selected stocks..then the consolidated line chart makes it a little easier on the eye..as u can see there is very little diff between a 2 day 1 min OHLC chart (left) and a 2 day 1 min consolidated line chart (right)

as for a ruler..well yes..but not one with 30 cm on it

The Oracle · Oct 2, 2011

Quote from xburbx:

a guess at that question

- i would treat that 100k like a gambling business. i would start with a business plan based on things relative to a trade (transaction) that put the probability of having a net positive at the end of a given period over X amount of trades. i would put that plan into action and then after a certain amount of trades, i would look for correlations and common factors that caused me to lose/gain money. i would avoid the losing characteristics and try to emphasize the winning ones that make the transactions in my gambling business net positive. losing is a cost of business just like normal overhead expenses and the key is to make sure that you never let your overhead get over extended. i know this seems obvious to most, but that is how i would approach the given scenario posted. get rid of the things holding my gambling business back and push efforts towards things making my business net positive.

one of the deadly things in running a business is not realizing what things are hurting your business even though they are very clear in hindsight after the money is spent. in trading, there are so many factors that are hurting the cash flow that most people dont have a single piece of the puzzle in place to focus that as the core of the thing that generates cash flow. i am not preaching or even stating that i know what i am talking about as i am still working on becoming a positive gambler but i have eliminated a ton of things since i started. i might not be close to getting the answer but this is how i view things after several years of seeing a lot of things in this.

as u said XX..obvious..but only when actually tried and tested

knowing that u do not know what will happen..what is the first thing u must do before u pick ur stock and place ur first trade?

exact details required

xburbx · Oct 2, 2011

as in a regular business, i dont know the future of the plans being put in place, but the plans are bets with a positive expectancy of positive returns.

in direct response to your question, it would go as follow

prior to placing a trade - determine how much i am willing to risk and how much i could make

1. i would identify stocks based on specific criteria of liquidity and volatility
2. i would look for important prices on high time frames.
3. i would look for price structure in daily time frame around those prices leading into the next day
4. once the market opens i would see where prices in those stocks are opening and then when a basic setup presents itself i would risk an amount of money i am willing to use.
5. i am anticipating but not predicting the volatility to kick in at a certain time if it is going to in that day. if it doesnt by when i expect i dont trade the stock.
6. then i set my stop and hold my trade according to how far it is expected to move. if my stop is hit, i take it

The Oracle · Oct 2, 2011

Quote from xburbx:

as in a regular business, i dont know the future of the plans being put in place, but the plans are bets with a positive expectancy of positive returns.

in direct response to your question, it would go as follow

prior to placing a trade -

1. i would identify stocks based on specific criteria of liquidity and volatility
2. i would look for important prices on high time frames.
3. i would look for price structure in daily time frame around those prices leading into the next day
4. once the market opens i would see where prices in those stocks are opening and then when a basic setup presents itself i would risk an amount of money i am willing to use.
5. i am anticipating but not predicting the volatility to kick in at a certain time if it is going to in that day. if it doesnt by when i expect i dont trade the stock.
6. then i set my stop and hold my trade according to how far it is expected to move. if my stop is hit, i take it

all good XX...but u must remember that those who start out do not have a clue what they are doing..and must therefore be very careful

the first and most important thing is to get your MAX % risk per trade worked out

so..lets forget all about the stupid books out there and look at what is required in order for someone to be able to learn what is required

$100K trading capital

MAX % Risk per trade= 1/8 of 1%..yes...i did say ONE EIGHT OF 1%

1/8 = 0.00125

100,000 x 0.00125 = $125

so..lets say u want to trade YUM

YUM = 49.41

MAX Stop = $125

Shares @ 20 cent stop = 600 rounded

OR

Shares @ 40 cent stop = 300 rounded

OR

Shares @ 60 cent stop = 200 rounded

OR

Shares @ 80 cent stop = 150 rounded

OR

Shares @ 100 cent stop = 125

now..what is OBVIOUS from this simple bit of maths

this so called R/R ratio is a wonderful thing..when right

and..just so that the brain can get working..here is YUM YUM

Redneck · Oct 2, 2011

Quote from The Oracle:

i have heard of the redneck trader that goes by the name of RN..as TE and the others have mentioned him on several occasions

a book is a very good analogy

every book contains chapters

each chapter is divided into paragraphs

each paragraph consists of a certain number of lines..the number of lines being directly related to the message being conveyed

what is the first thing u do before u read a book?

please let us know what type of book u are reading..for u might do things slightly different depending on the type of book

TO

Well Sir

Truth be told â I donât really read the bookâ¦ it is read to me â like my grandparents did when I was but a childâ¦.

I simply need to shut up and listenâ¦ And of course since I am listening intently, with an unadulterated mind, I get totally engrossed, totally absorbed evenâ¦.

I often times find myself inserted in the story and riding along, not as one of the characters, but as a mere shadowâ¦

And as we know â a shadow never moves independently of its creatorâ¦.

====================================================================================

Things I do before being read to;

Perform a preflight check
Relax
Clear my mind
Revert to a childlike state
Open a new page of the bookâ¦ sometimes a new chapter if a significant event recently occurred

Then I simply enjoy the story as it unfolds before meâ¦

One other thing I do each evening prior to story time â is create/ modify (if necessary) the context in which the story will be told the next morningâ¦ Iâve found it makes for a much more profitable experienceâ¦

More to come on that last sentence shortly - I hope you approve

RN

Redneck · Oct 2, 2011

Disclaimer

I do not trade YUM

Do not take what Iâm about to post as any sort of recommendation â Iâm simply trying to share some context so the ones interested can enjoy tomorrow's story time

Also DO NOT take my post here as a slight to this threadâ¦

Step 1 is to get your mind right â this thread will help you in that endeavor â and anyone who has made any sort of remark to the contrary is truly an idiot

Step 2 (making money) - is easy, once you successfully completed Step 1â¦ But if you try circumventing Step 1 in any way you are screwing yourselfâ¦.

By posting this â Iâm simply trying to give the ones really trying â an insight as to what it looks like once your mind is rightâ¦ and how easy it is to make moneyâ¦

The rest of you (specifically the naysayers) can go to hell for all I care

=======================================================================================

YUM (the story to date/ and some context)

Weekly / Daily is in a downtrend

Monthly is in an uptrend, but price is essentially at the bottom of the monthly channel

On additional note on the Monthly â at first it appears to also be in a down trendâ¦ BUT the Sept bar made a higher low, and higher high â when compared to the Aug bar, so technically it is an uptrend (a small but important detail)

================================================================
$48.32 is significant support (on the daily, weekly, and monthly)

Price closed Friday in a âBart Headâ (recall NRBs lead to WRBsâ¦ WRBs to NRBsâ¦ and NRBs make up Bart heads..., and of course boxes can be made from that)

The bart head range is $49.91 to $49.27

================================================================

I have absolutely no clue if price is going higher or lower next Monday/ next Week/ next Month/ or in the next 5 minutes

What I do know (because I was told)â¦

If price breaks to the up side of the bart head â $50.87 is a good short term target

If price breaks to the down side of the bart head â $48.32 is a decent target â but I would anticipate it to bounce hard once hitting / getting near $48.32 â so you need to be damn quick exiting â if youâre short

Also you should able to trade the bounce off $48.32 â if you get in quickly..

But, and this is a huge but â if price hangs around $48.42 for any length of time (say a few bars) â it may not hold (but then it may also be the jockeyed about before shooting off long)

However should it break $48.32, there is some significant down sideâ¦ also price likely move down very fast as stops will be hit/ shorts will be piling inâ¦.
=======================================================================

Also I would expect either price to be âjockeyedâ around before it moves up â in an effort to shake out the weaklings

Or

To shoot off like a rocket â in attempt to leave the weaklings behind

Just need to stand by and be ready for either

========================================================================

On another note

If price gaps either way out of the bart head at the open â standing pat is best until you get an indication of its intention

Remember Low risk/ High reward is the goal when tradingâ¦ to get a low risk entry, patience is required until one presents itself

==============================================================================

Stops for the above scenariosâ¦

Stops are the most important part to all this, or any tradeâ¦ and I am not going to give them out...

I feel that would be too much like me setting up the trades â that you could potentially take â and that is absolutely not my intention

I donât know your risk tolerances â either financially or emotionallyâ¦

I canât be there to ensure you pull the trigger if it becomes necessary to exit a loser

So do not trade Yum tomorrow based on my post â I am nothing but a simple minded dumbass redneck - who knows nothing

==================================================================

If pressed for an opinion I would say long is a more likely direction Monday â as I think $48.42 will hold â at least for now

JUST realize my opinion sucksâ¦ and I change it quite oftenâ¦ I truly donât know what is going to happen

So it best I become a child and simply follow along while the story unfolds

And of course identify low risk set upsâ¦, and use stops

=================================================================

Now that Iâve created you some decent contextâ¦

If you can revert to a childâ¦, nuke your opinionâ¦, and simply follow along with the story on Monday â there is a lesson to learnâ¦

Screw the money for now â there will be other opportunities I assure you

=========================================================================

I will not be trading this one â I hang out in another arena â but I will follow along and see if a story unfolds within the context Iâve created

I also will not be posting additional remarks â unless what Iâve posted here is totally hosed â in which case I will gladly acknowledge my screw ups

========================================================================

One final note

The above context is not my opinionâ¦ Iâm simply relaying the story price is telling meâ¦

Also if all youâve gotten out of this is that some dumbass redneck trying to show off â then youâve missed my intent completelyâ¦

Please donât focus on this tradeâ¦, focus instead on the story and simply allow it to unfold before your eyesâ¦

I sincerely hope this helps you along your journey to getting your mind right â that is the goal here after all

You must have mental dexterity to trade successfully - above all else

RN

The Oracle · Oct 2, 2011

Quote from Redneck:

Well Sir

Truth be told â I donât really read the bookâ¦ it is read to me â like my grandparents did when I was but a childâ¦.

I simply need to shut up and listenâ¦ And of course since I am listening intently, with an unadulterated mind, I get totally engrossed, totally absorbed evenâ¦.

I often times find myself inserted in the story and riding along, not as one of the characters, but as a mere shadowâ¦

And as we know â a shadow never moves independently of its creatorâ¦.

====================================================================================

Things I do before being read to;

Perform a preflight check
Relax
Clear my mind
Revert to a childlike state
Open a new page of the bookâ¦ sometimes a new chapter if a significant event recently occurred

Then I simply enjoy the story as it unfolds before meâ¦

One other thing I do each evening prior to story time â is create/ modify (if necessary) the context in which the story will be told the next morningâ¦ Iâve found it makes for a much more profitable experienceâ¦

More to come on that last sentence shortly - I hope you approve

RN

who am i to say what is right..or what is wrong

i vividly remember a very good story..that was made into a film..and the name of it is..

The Never Ending Story

in the story..a little boy..Bastian Bux..gets a present of a book..and when he starts to read it he is unable to close the book..in fact..he is so engrossed he lives out the story of the book

the boy in the never ending story is called Atreyu..on his journeys Atreyu meets everything from a princess to a rock biter..to THE NOTHING..which consumes everything

it is an amazing story..and i would recommend anyone who has an interest in learning to watch the film..in fact..there are a few versions..either one will do..as the message is the same

since i first watched the story with my children..many years ago..the message is still as clear as the first day it was revealed..and..every so often i watch the film again..in fact i have all 3 of them..

..and it still holds the attention..as if it was being watched for the first time

sometimes it is good to go back to childhood things..especially those things that brought great joy and happiness..for..that is what life is all about..is it not

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_NeverEnding_Story_(film)

now it is becoming apparent why the name TFF was chosen for the group

TO

J Ski · Oct 2, 2011

Thank you sincerely for this thread.
I am listening more.
Still learning. I see better.
Some are coming around,
it is interesting to watch.

Redneck · Oct 2, 2011

Quote from The Oracle:

now it is becoming apparent why the name TFF was chosen for the group TO

Please give them my Best - Always

The Never Ending Story... I like that... and a must see no doubt...

RN

The Oracle · Oct 2, 2011

Quote from Redneck:

Disclaimer

I do not trade YUM

Do not take what Iâm about to post as any sort of recommendation â Iâm simply trying to share some context so the ones interested can enjoy tomorrow's story time

Also DO NOT take my post here as a slight to this threadâ¦

Step 1 is to get your mind right â this thread will help you in that endeavor â and anyone who has made any sort of remark to the contrary is truly an idiot

Step 2 (making money) - is easy, once you successfully completed Step 1â¦ But if you try circumventing Step 1 in any way you are screwing yourselfâ¦.

By posting this â Iâm simply trying to give the ones really trying â an insight as to what it looks like once your mind is rightâ¦ and how easy it is to make moneyâ¦

The rest of you (specifically the naysayers) can go to hell for all I care

=======================================================================================

YUM (the story to date/ and some context)

Weekly / Daily is in a downtrend

Monthly is in an uptrend, but price is essentially at the bottom of the monthly channel

On additional note on the Monthly â at first it appears to also be in a down trendâ¦ BUT the Sept bar made a higher low, and higher high â when compared to the Aug bar, so technically it is an uptrend (a small but important detail)

================================================================
$48.32 is significant support (on the daily, weekly, and monthly)

Price closed Friday in a âBart Headâ (recall NRBs lead to WRBsâ¦ WRBs to NRBsâ¦ and NRBs make up Bart heads..., and of course boxes can be made from that)

The bart head range is $49.91 to $49.27

================================================================

I have absolutely no clue if price is going higher or lower next Monday/ next Week/ next Month/ or in the next 5 minutes

What I do know (because I was told)â¦

If price breaks to the up side of the bart head â $50.87 is a good short term target

If price breaks to the down side of the bart head â $48.32 is a decent target â but I would anticipate it to bounce hard once hitting / getting near $48.32 â so you need to be damn quick exiting â if youâre short

Also you should able to trade the bounce off $48.32 â if you get in quickly..

But, and this is a huge but â if price hangs around $48.42 for any length of time (say a few bars) â it may not hold (but then it may also be the jockeyed about before shooting off long)

However should it break $48.32, there is some significant down sideâ¦ also price likely move down very fast as stops will be hit/ shorts will be piling inâ¦.
=======================================================================

Also I would expect either price to be âjockeyedâ around before it moves up â in an effort to shake out the weaklings

Or

To shoot off like a rocket â in attempt to leave the weaklings behind

Just need to stand by and be ready for either

========================================================================

On another note

If price gaps either way out of the bart head at the open â standing pat is best until you get an indication of its intention

Remember Low risk/ High reward is the goal when tradingâ¦ to get a low risk entry, patience is required until one presents itself

==============================================================================

Stops for the above scenariosâ¦

Stops are the most important part to all this, or any tradeâ¦ and I am not going to give them out...

I feel that would be too much like me setting up the trades â that you could potentially take â and that is absolutely not my intention

I donât know your risk tolerances â either financially or emotionallyâ¦

I canât be there to ensure you pull the trigger if it becomes necessary to exit a loser

So do not trade Yum tomorrow based on my post â I am nothing but a simple minded dumbass redneck - who knows nothing

==================================================================

If pressed for an opinion I would say long is a more likely direction Monday â as I think $48.42 will hold â at least for now

JUST realize my opinion sucksâ¦ and I change it quite oftenâ¦ I truly donât know what is going to happen

So it best I become a child and simply follow along while the story unfolds

And of course identify low risk set upsâ¦, and use stops

=================================================================

Now that Iâve created you some decent contextâ¦

If you can revert to a childâ¦, nuke your opinionâ¦, and simply follow along with the story on Monday â there is a lesson to learnâ¦

Screw the money for now â there will be other opportunities I assure you

=========================================================================

I will not be trading this one â I hang out in another arena â but I will follow along and see if a story unfolds within the context Iâve created

I also will not be posting additional remarks â unless what Iâve posted here is totally hosed â in which case I will gladly acknowledge my screw ups

========================================================================

One final note

The above context is not my opinionâ¦ Iâm simply relaying the story price is telling meâ¦

Also if all youâve gotten out of this is that some dumbass redneck trying to show off â then youâve missed my intent completelyâ¦

Please donât focus on this tradeâ¦, focus instead on the story and simply allow it to unfold before your eyesâ¦

I sincerely hope this helps you along your journey to getting your mind right â that is the goal here after all

You must have mental dexterity to trade successfully - above all else

RN

very well explained RN..and u don't trade stocks

i did have one closer look..but..as we know the look is just to prepare one for certain things that might happen..just in case..but if they do not materialize..then me move on to plan B..as u rightly said in ur message

if YUM does gap down..then around the 48.80 might be a key level to watch..but these are very volatile times..with euro and all the crap..so..it is best to accept..as always..that anything can happen at any time..but..at the same time..it is no harm to have some key levels written down..as that is what everyone else is watching as well..and..bar some silly idiots making some silly statements..or doing some silly acts..normality will play out..where u have the mm's playing their little games..just like in..

The Never Ending Story

TO

btw..in case anyone has not noticed..yum is very fond of gapping..not a stock for beginners to trade..and..always remember..never take advice from anyone when trading..for if u do..then u might just end up regretting it some day..

keep ur risk small and let the odds play out..but u must have ur double zero..otherwise u are just pissing against the wind..and will never make money trading..so..prepare to do what is required in order to learn..and learning only comes from first hand experience..simple really..when u stop and think about it

Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

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