Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

I dislike psychometric tests as I've had to do a few when applying for jobs in the very distant past. On one occasion the HR person gave me instant feedback and stated that according to the test I was "justice orientated", and asked if I agreed. Well, I wasn't interested in playing the game so I just agreed to get it over with. It was only some time afterwards that I realised that maybe the real test was how a candidate responded to an idiotic statement about themselves, or maybe the HR Dept did take the result seriously, I don't know, and then again the statement itself seems open to interpretation and not at all objective. I didn't get the job but did get another eventually, but, as a result of a merger I ended up working for that same company after all.

As this is for fun and not a job interview (or is it?) heres my response: (and please don't tell me I'm "justice orientated")

1 - 2
2 - 3
3 - 3
4 - 4
5 - 5
6 - 1
7 - 4
8 - 2
9 - 3
10 - 5
11 - 1
12 - 3
13 - 2
14 - 2
15 - 4
16 - 4
17 - 4
18 - 4
19 - 4
20 - 3
21 - 4
22 - 4
23 - 5
24 - 3
25 - 3
 
Quote from nysestocks:

Randomness and perception
"We do not come into this world with an innate sense of how the random part of
our world works. We talk about probabilities casually and think we understand.
When the weatherman forecasts 60% chance of rain today we do not
have a precise definition of what that means. Does it mean a 60% chance that it
will rain here at my office, or 60% chance of rain somewhere in the city? Does it
mean a 60% chance every part of the city will get at least a drop of rain, or that
each point in the city will get rain 60% of the time? Some of these possible
meanings may be absurd but the point is that we deal with statements like
these with only an intuitive sense of what they mean.
We mostly have unreliable notions and perhaps some wrong conclusions when it
comes to randomness in our lives. For instance, few of us know that if a group
of 25 randomly selected people are asked their birthday that the chance of at
least two of them having a birthday on the same day of the year is better than
50%. I met a man who knew all the odds of drawing various hands in poker.
When I told him this little known fact he was in disbelief and gave me 2 to 1
odds on a bet. The 14th person he queried for a birth date matched one of the
previous ones. He declined to repeat the bet.
A trader needs tools for finding what kind of results work now and are likely
work in the future. He would like to know what is more important, the probability
of success on a trade, or the average profit to risk ratio. He would like to
know what would happen if losers were exited early."
More...

I believe that if 23 people are selected randomly the probability of at least 2 sharing a birthday is greater than 0.5, and for 22 people selected randomly the probability is less than 0.5. I did a course in probability as part of my education and recall that problem was set as a task to solve. The key to solving it is to turn the problem around ("think differently") and consider (1 minus) the probability of a group of people all having distinct birthdays.

As I have familiarity with basic concepts of probability I can see how the problem is solved and therefore there is no mystery for me, although when the number 23 was calculated there was a sense of suprise. For anyone who does not have an understanding of probability concepts though then the mystery will always remain.

So to solve some problems the correct way of looking at the problem is needed together with the right mindset or concepts.

TE, I don't know what the "obvious" secret is yet, despite spending many a happy hour looking at charts, but it has occured to me that for the "secret" to become obvious then charts may need to be looked at in a particular way and with certain concepts in mind. Is that right, and if so how do I go about getting the right mindset?
 
I've been reading through this thread but haven't completed it yet. Theres never enough time these days to do everything I'd like to do.

Based on what I've read so far I suppose the simple answer to my last post is to spend time to think and research how the markets work, and then the understanding which follows will provide the right mindset to see the "obvious".
 
Quote from The Expert:

Well said JO:)

To clarify, NY, TG, MrC and now TE, are all students of one who will probably never post on any site.

Many here think that NY=TG=MrC=TE, but most think incorrectly:D

NY is a very good trader, TG is nearly as good, Mr C still has some problems that he is currently addressing, and TE, well, the name speaks for itself:cool:

As for the remaining trader, well, lets just say that he knows MUCH more than the other 4 all put together:eek:

I have been asked to re-start this thread, so that I will now do, as it is very important in relation to making GOOD money when trading.

So, let us try to solve the riddle of trading profits again, for life is full of riddles, and solving them is what produces results:)

1. What is the main theme in all of the posts by TFF group

2. Why is it necessary to fully understand the theme

3. Why do so many fail in understanding the theme

4. What can one do to help them understand the theme

5. How will one know when they really understand the theme

TE
More...
1. The main theme seems to be "use your brain & eyes". Learn to think correctly, have a plan/process, and always think before you act.
2. If you don't use your brain you're just going to rely on others and never get anywhere.
3. We haven't been educated to think; most of us have just been taught to memorize what's in books and to glorify others instead of relying on ourselves.
4. One can develop a process for themselves and figure out for themselves what are the "key" things they need to know. A person can also do puzzles or brainteasers or something that requires them to use their brain.
5. One will know it when they know it. It'll have the ring of truth to them when they know it.
 
TE,

Who is the person you learned from and how were you lucky enough to learn from him/her?

Did the person teach you how to trade, how to think, or both?
 
Quote from macattack:

TE,

Who is the person you learned from and how were you lucky enough to learn from him/her?

Did the person teach you how to trade, how to think, or both?
More...

A wise man learns from the mistakes of others:D

Take what you can from others, remember the good bits, forget the stupid bits, and ALWAYS do what you MUST do, not what you THINK you must do:eek:

I taught myself the best approach for me, but, I did learn a few KEY things from others that showed me what I needed to know in order to be able to make GOOD money, for, it is easy to make money trading, easier to lose it, but, it is very hard to make GOOD money, each and every day. and, that is why the real TA is required, for, some of those I learned from had one big problem, and that was, and probably still is, that they are unable to hold on to the GOOD money, and, then you must ask what the hell is it all about, for, it is no good making GOOD money if you are unable to hold on to it:cool:

You have been shown enough to make GOOD money, whether you make it or not, is up to YOU, but, one thing is for sure, and that is, unless you do the required work, you will NEVER make it.

TE
 
Quote from Mysteron:

I've been reading through this thread but haven't completed it yet. Theres never enough time these days to do everything I'd like to do.

Based on what I've read so far I suppose the simple answer to my last post is to spend time to think and research how the markets work, and then the understanding which follows will provide the right mindset to see the "obvious".
More...

Do not waste time like most do:eek:

Trade 100 shares until you GET IT RIGHT, for, then, it is just a MATTER OF SIZE:D

The Generals move the market, so trade with The Generals.

ALWAYS set yourself a TARGET, and, ALWAYS have a VISION of where you want to be in a few years.

THINK BIG, not small:D

If you think you are a loser, then that is what you will be, for, you are what you think:cool:


BTW, you can think about winning the lotto all you like, but, if you never buy a ticket, you will NEVER win.

TE
 
Quote from Redneck trader:

Tortoise

Identified two patterns which led me to that conclusion in ~10 minutes

RN
More...

I bet the first was numbers, and the second letters:D

My laptop with the brain book is not with me, so, will have to wait for the answer:D

BTW, those pictures are my own, with a FUJI camera I paid about $100 for:eek:

EURUSD looks like it wants to test the 1.18 lows, but, as usual, we must trade what we actually see each day, and not what we think we see, for, Time = Money :cool:

It is amazing what people are using computers for these days:D

TE
 
Quote from Mysteron:


The results from Myself:


1 - 5
2 - 4
3 - 5
4 - 4
5 - 5
6 - 3
7 - 5
8 - 5
9 - 1
10 - 5
11 - 3
12 - 4
13 - 3
14 - 4
15 - 2
16 - 4
17 - 5
18 - 5
19 - 5
20 - 3
21 - 5
22 - 5
23 - 5
24 - 4
25 - 4 [/B]
More...
 
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