I did read the speech. And I posted the headline for summary; will you tell us where in the fomc statement do you see what you claim? As a rates trade, I would dearly like to know.
Why is the market going up?
- Thread starter Wolfgang1756
- Start date
you are making your headline out of your ass; By the way, kocherlakota may not dissent to a rates pledge != never voting against QE3 despite your total failure of reasoning abilities.
Nice observation.
Do the pros know something about tommorow???
GordonTheGekko
Guest
Today was a suckers day. HFT's or not, it should not of gone up based on the news.
Approach short term swings in the market as you would any gambling media. Roulette for example -- but roulette with lead shot on one side of the wheel where a few of those at the table know where the lead shot is, and the others are oblivious.
Over time, the market does respond to longer range economic conditions and increasingly, since the advent of fiat currency, to the currency it's denominated in, i.e., the US Dollar. As the dollar weakens, the market, over time, will go up. As it strengthens, it will go down, over time of course. The important thing is not the dollar in isolation, but the dollar relative to other currencies. There are perfectly sound reasons for this.
Of course real* growth in the economy or real earnings increases, particularly real dividend increases, would interrupt this market-dollar relationship. But what are the chances of that!?
____________________
*real, meaning discounted for inflation.
Over time, the market does respond to longer range economic conditions and increasingly, since the advent of fiat currency, to the currency it's denominated in, i.e., the US Dollar. As the dollar weakens, the market, over time, will go up. As it strengthens, it will go down, over time of course. The important thing is not the dollar in isolation, but the dollar relative to other currencies. There are perfectly sound reasons for this.
Of course real* growth in the economy or real earnings increases, particularly real dividend increases, would interrupt this market-dollar relationship. But what are the chances of that!?
____________________
*real, meaning discounted for inflation.
The FED will continue to print money because it's simply what they do. They need asset inflation but in the meantime we're going to get commodity inflation, which will cause widespread pain around the globe. What do you think will happen at $6 or $7 gasoline? People will drive to and from work and that's it. Forget driving to the mall, the restaurant, the amuzement park, the local watering hole (they should walk here anyway). The FED is going to continue the QE policy and the stock market, along with many other markets, will be making new highs in short order.
Look at the chart. Market is broken, no one is going to buy highs.
We had a panic sell off, now we are retracing on light volume.
Classic folks.
Once we get more bad news, the sell off continues.
We will retrace, consolidate, and sell off again, and make new lows.
We have a ways to go for a 50% retracement.
Remember this, everyone was hedged for this sell off, unlike 2008. There needs to be jigs for this one to work. It won't be as fast.
We are in a BEAR MARKET now.
We had a panic sell off, now we are retracing on light volume.
Classic folks.
Once we get more bad news, the sell off continues.
We will retrace, consolidate, and sell off again, and make new lows.
We have a ways to go for a 50% retracement.
Remember this, everyone was hedged for this sell off, unlike 2008. There needs to be jigs for this one to work. It won't be as fast.
We are in a BEAR MARKET now.
Quote from Wolfgang1756:
It is really p*ssing me off.
Obviously this is a "suckers" rally. Why are these idiots buying???
I hope all those sucked into this "rally" go broke and get unemployed! Hopefully they will add to the current 9.1% or whatever it is...
Sorry but I had to vent my frustration...
What makes you think it is not a shorting covering rally --- the guys who shorted the bottom applying something like "trade what you see not what you think" based on what looked to them at the time as a down move. They may also have read the hype of market going down, etc, and not realizing the market already went down. No replacement to fading it.
Quote from Wolfgang1756:
It is really p*ssing me off.
Obviously this is a "suckers" rally. Why are these idiots buying???
I hope all those sucked into this "rally" go broke and get unemployed! Hopefully they will add to the current 9.1% or whatever it is...
Sorry but I had to vent my frustration...
What do you think that huge correction in August was? The markets are forward thinking and priced in the bad news, and now they are looking for equilibrium. You need to turn off the news and trade the trend and recognize when it changes. Don't try and tell the market what to do. It does not care.
This has been going on as long as there has been markets, there is no conspiracy. Read this, from a pit trader in 1982:
"The following typical trading errors have a specific cause rooted in a
thinking methodology that can be changed.
1. Refusing to define a loss.
2. Not liquidating a losing trade, even after you have acknowledged the
trade's potential is greatly diminished.
3. Getting locked into a specific opinion or belief about market
direction. From a psychological perspective this is equivalent to
trying to control the market with your expectation of what it will
do: "I'm right, the market is wrong."
4. Focusing on price and the monetary value of a trade, instead of the
potential for the market to move based on its behavior and structure.
5. Revenge-trading as if you were trying get back at the market for what
it took away from you.
6. Not reversing your position even when you clearly sense a change
in market direction.
7. Not following the rules of the trading system.
8. Planning for a move or feeling one building, but then finding
yourself immobilized to hit the bid or offer, and therefore denying
yourself the opportunity to profit.
9. Not acting on your instincts or intuition.
10. Establishing a consistent pattern of trading success over a period of
time, and then giving your winnings back to the market in one or
two trades and starting the cycle over again."