Quote from scriabinop23:
And then just then maybe the market might see we don't need their oil. What would the market do if suddenly inventories were not falling despite Venezuela shipping nothing? That would mark a likely top.
Unfortunately, falling inventories aren't why the market is climbing. Check out the march opec meeting, inventories have been climbing. Actually demand has been slightly down in the last few months. OPEC themselves were quoted as saying there was no supply shortage, that the rise in prices are not attributed to supply but rather SPECULATION. If venezuela stops shipping oil the speculators will just buy more.
