Why is it So Much Easier to Lose than to Win?

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there is nothing you can blame about catching bottom and tops.

first in every second or in every tick, the market may reverse its trend, for example the markt starts to drop in the opening, what you should do, if you are a trend follower, you instinctly think it is a short sale, so you did, but oddly after you sold short, the market reversed, when you saw your loss gets bigger and bigger, boom, it hit your stop loss, after you you cut loss, oops, the market reversed again, do you short it this time? I bet you become nervous, even you short sold it, the market may resume it climbing again or it may really start to snowfall from there, who knows!

but if you are a bottom picker or top seller, in this situation, you played pretty well, he made several round money!

like TWB, last week it dropped very hard to 8 under, but after that drop, TWB just kept rising, or in case of ELN, if you picked it at 9.8, then maybe several days late he sold it at 40% gain, or in case of FRE/FNM, the first time FRE droped to 4, I bought it and I made 100% on that, and those airline stocks, when crude hits 145+, I just bought CAL at 7, and sold it at 18+, kind of fun!

buy low and sell high is the basic trading principle!

Quote from joeb8822:

This is from my blog

http://tradepilotpro.blogspot.com/



Catching Bottoms and Tops



Ok, ill let you in on a really big trade set-up I use

READY

Look at where the market was and look at where it is going, you can not break this rule under any circumstance!

Ok now that you did that.

Place a trade in the direction that it is going, this is where it gets hard, it is kind of like seeing the “forest through the trees”

After you place the trade, now I mean after you start to make money, this is where it get’s even harder to do (staying in the trade)

You see we all want to be right and prove the market wrong, and say I got the bottom tick and this is a very scary thing to do

But we will risk everything to do it so we can justify our hard work and time we spent studying the markets

and if you do actually get the bottom tick, it will be nothing more than (POSITIVE RENFORSMENT OF DISTRUCTIVE BEHAVOR)

DON’T WORRY YOUR NOT ALONE.

The sad part of this is that it is a terminal disease traders never recover from, trying to catch a top or bottom in any market or stock will ultimately end up in ruin for all traders,

please understand THIS IS A LOSERS GAME, in fact it has nothing to do with trading at all it has do with our Lack of self worth and our own perception of how we judge ourselves, we want to be right more than we want to make money.

So when you are trying to call market tops or bottoms take a moment of pause to “THINK” why am I doing this, is it to make money ? or prove something to myself or someone else.

Just my 2 pennies



Take Care,

Joe Baker

Trading takes more than just knowing where the market is
headed

Lots of discipline and money management , actually more than a lot it takes a boatload of it
More...
 
We all understand that, however not to get into a debate

I just wanted to point out when you buy into a market continuing to make lower lows, just stop and think
Why am I fighting the trend

As for the times you mentioned how many times does it NOT work out and how many times DOES it work out

I know the answer and I have a feeling most on this post
know it too

I was just trying to help out some of the traders think before buying onto a down trend.
If you are going to buy after a sell off, don't worry let the market or stock or whatever you trade prove it self first, It will always retest after a bounce watch the retest

Did it hold or fail ?

Good Trading to all


Joe Baker
 
of course I need say, you do not pick every dip or sell every rally, to me, I just bought those panic sell (overdone sell), and I short those HYPE (overdon buy), in order to select the most profitable ones and increase your trading winning odd to 99%, you must excise patience and discipline, you must avoid those "looks like" trades. if a trade is not almost guranteed 99% to make profit, why do it? Warren Buffet is the typical bottom fishing trader, he made his first fortune on picking a bottom!

most people lose because they think every movement is an opportunity, they can not avoid those they are not sure, they just play statistical things, but they can not control the downside, how can they make money or not lose? flip a coin is 50/50 odd, but if trading is 50/50, you definetely will lose: why? the commisionn will eat you alive! so you should not play the market statisically

my point is you must pick the trade you are almost sure, so you know how to handle it! do not throw away money by playing the market statiscally, one bullet one prey
 
Joe,

I'm not referring to the overall market scale but I know traders that consistently call intraday tops and bottoms.

It's all in the price action.
 
95% of where you can enter in price is either
a) unknown of direction
b) chop
c) no logical movements


only 5% is logical and trending.



Why is it so much easier to lose? Cause everybody enters in that 95% pricing range.
 
Winning= Result
Losing = Result
BreakEven = Result

Long = Position
Short = Position
No Position = Position

Buy = Static Procedure
Sell = Static Procedure

Perhaps you should look at your reasonings for trade entry and exit, instead of "trying" to complicate those things that can not be complicated.

Osorico
 
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