From April to July I completed 12 IC's and won on 11. You place them when volatility is high and and choose your short strikes wisely. If you choose 5 delta short strikes you'll have a high percentage low payoffs. My dozen were mixed between 10 and 43 DTE at deltas between 13 and 22. The other key to winning at IC's is adjusting to which there are numerous approaches: rolling the wings, rolling the short strikes or doing nothing.
why is iron condor ever a good idea?
- Thread starter 1a2b3cppp
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Troll thread.
But the correct answer is No. Unless you think it will make money.
But the correct answer is No. Unless you think it will make money.
A response of "no" to a question of "why" is a non sequitur and my answer is Iron Condors are very profitable if you know what your doing. An Iron Condor is merely a Strangle with wings. Research shows a 30 delta Strangle wins approx 78% of time when managed properly. The results are better if you exclude times when the VIX is below 13. It ain't a difficult trade or concept to think it will make money. I'm surprised this is not common knowledge amongst "Elite Traders".
I've often thought a short strangle can be a very profitable strategy. Ppl freak out about the unlimited risk but that is the theoretical side and does not include active monitoring. The ic is great for the brokerage because of all the transactions. Likewise good for the mm cuz they profit from 4 different spreads. I. E 4 bid asks. As well, harder to make net profits when you are paying do commissions and spreads 4 times. Riskier than ICs, but for the skilled trader, much more profitable...
I'm one of those who is very cautious of short strangles, it's why I like Iron Condors. However, I will put on a one or two lot SPY short Strangle each week the VIX is over 14 just because they are very profitable and to acclimate my risk aversion.
Perhaps because your stats are worthless. 78% when "managed properly" is an invalid statistic. x + banana = orange. 78% of the time... it works all the time.
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OK, all the "Elite Traders" come attack the new guy who has a spine. This is the first place of self proclaimed elite traders I've seen who believe Iron Condors as vodo. A 30 delta spread has a +-70% probability of finishing OTM. 78% isn't far away from somebody out of options 101 with 98F gray matter. You apparently take deltas as voodoo, what do you call chicken feet bannan boy? I fully expect to get kicked out of here tonight and I will be better off afterwards.
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I've only hear rumors of the Broken Banana, Iron Sex Panther spread: 78% of the time, they expire all the time.
Properly managed is the key flaw here. If you're gonna test and confirm, then your exit rules need to be more precise than 'properly managed' What defines properly managed, and by whose criteria? You need better stats if you're gonna trade on those stats. Otherwise you will just become another stat...