Why is hard to make money? Find trend, stops above previous/high low, TP @ next highs/lows

[Scataphagos]

Yes I agree, I find that it happens. What does BTFD and BTD mean?

Right Now I am just selling retracements in downtrends and uptrends. It's not like the market always trends anyway, mostly on the hourly chart so I can get enough setups every week.

How do you determine trend technically (e.g. 2 higher highs etc) or its just a "sense" kind of thing?

What do you think of the yen? http://prntscr.com/fv60de

BTD = Buy The Dip
BTFD = Buy The F'n Dip

Up trend... prices moving from lower left of chart to higher right. Vice versa for bearish trend. At the start of a new trend, it's not always clear. You're most likely to think it's not the start of the new trend but is a counter move to the prior trend. Eventually it sinks in. Other than the "big picture", there are shorter term moves which may require adjusting your bias temporarily if you play short term.

Trend in the Yen had been bullish. Might have turned bearish at 114 or the dip is just another counter to the up trend. Too soon to know just yet.

 

[Scataphagos]

Bias is always bad

That's not right. You MUST have a bias... and the correct one.

You "know" to BTFD. You're probably conditioned to BTFD by now... and that's because the market's bias has been bullish. So... your having a bullish bias and trading around that has been correct. It won't always be thus.

 

[Scataphagos]

Not wishing to butt into a fight, but Mtrader in my opinion is ok, the real deal, not a fake.
Suggest maybe you should re-evaluate your decision putting him/her on ignore.

"Real deal"? Defending claims of 10:1 win ratio?

 

[iamnewuser911]

BTD = Buy The Dip
BTFD = Buy The F'n Dip

Up trend... prices moving from lower left of chart to higher right. Vice versa for bearish trend. At the start of a new trend, it's not always clear. You're most likely to think it's not the start of the new trend but is a counter move to the prior trend. Eventually it sinks in. Other than the "big picture", there are shorter term moves which may require adjusting your bias temporarily if you play short term.

Trend in the Yen had been bullish. Might have turned bearish at 114 or the dip is just another counter to the up trend. Too soon to know just yet.

I have a few questions.

"Too soon to know yet"

For Yen, makes new high = BTDs

And what will tell you that the trend has reversed? To me it might be the start of a new trend so shorting the rallies isn't a bad idea since the risk: reward is good since you entered near the start of a new trend.

 

[JSSPMK]

A lot of fluff being posted, all you have to figure out is how to come up with an edge that enables you to offset your losses and provide gain. Don't overcomplicate.

 

[Scataphagos]

You've answered your own question.

One way to describe a bullish trend... "higher highs and higher lows on daily chart". Vice versa for bearish trend.

To catch the start of a trend change, you have to make a good guess. Whether the journey is 1000 steps or 10 steps, the 1st step looks the same. IOW... what might be the start of a new trend, could also be a counter to the existing trend.

Current time is a classic example. Let's say the S&P declines 10%. Is that the start of a new bearish trend or just another "counter dip" in the old bull market trend? When "only" 10% down off the top, it's too soon to tell for sure. You can guess at it, of course... might even get it right.

 

[iamnewuser911]

You've answered your own question.

One way to describe a bullish trend... "higher highs and higher lows on daily chart". Vice versa for bearish trend.

To catch the start of a trend change, you have to make a good guess. Whether the journey is 1000 steps or 10 steps, the 1st step looks the same. IOW... what might be the start of a new trend, could also be a counter to the existing trend.

Current time is a classic example. Let's say the S&P declines 10%. Is that the start of a new bearish trend or just another "counter dip" in the old bull market trend? When "only" 10% down off the top, it's too soon to tell for sure. You can guess at it, of course... might even get it right.

Thanks. So this game is mostly about whether risk is worth it to take?

I have another question on consolidations, I know the phase buy and sell extremes of consolidations with risk outside, however most consolidations ranges are not very "defined" in terms of textbook patterns like triangles and rectangles. How do you find the extremes?

 

[Scataphagos]

Here's a great example of "bias", one which I discovered early on while researching old charts.

The exact dates may be off a bit, as I'm recalling from a Swiss cheese memory...

From 1966-1982-ish, the markets were in a broad trading range. So... the "big picture" was "sideways trend".

However, each swing across the range... from top-to-bottom of the range behaved like a mini-bear market. And each swing from bottom-to-top behaved like a mini-bull market. To have recognized this and changed your trading bias as the markets dictated could have been very profitable*, but those who maintained a bullish bias all the way through rode out the ups/downs and managed to only break even. And of course some who chased momentum got slaughtered.

*You wouldn't even have had to be "that" brilliant. If you'd just traded in and out on the 20-day moving average cross, you'd have made out quite well. Recognizing that fact is primarily what got me into "price chart TA" and market timing.

 

[Scataphagos]

Thanks. So this game is mostly about whether risk is worth it to take?

I have another question on consolidations, I know the phase buy and sell extremes of consolidations with risk outside, however most consolidations ranges are not very "defined" in terms of textbook patterns like triangles and rectangles. How do you find the extremes?

It has always been about "worth the risk". You need to figure out how/where to "risk a little while trying to make a lot". Your criteria for going on a risk could be technical, psychological or both.

As for consolidations, they are periods of indecision. Draw a line across the top of the pattern and one across the bottom, then go from there.

K.I.S.S.

 

[Mtrader]

A lot of fluff being posted, all you have to figure out is how to come up with an edge that enables you to offset your losses and provide gain. Don't overcomplicate.

Yeah,

If you lost $1,000, just make $2,000 profit in the next trade. "Keep things simple" like you said.

ROFLMAO.