No worries, man. It's never too late to study up
Why is gold doing so shitty?
- Thread starter SoyUnGanador
- Start date
Gold is basically a useless commodity, only famous because the bible rants about how good it is in a bygone era.
You can do FA with gold except impress your girlfriend.
Gold runs on a rollercoaster, its reputation now trashed from years of manipulation.
Gold will run on euphoria but it takes a long time to build up.
Once the euphoria gets going (no different to tulip bulbs or nickel) once up and running, look out! Because the rug will be pulled out from under your feet.
Gold a store of value? Lmfao!
You can do FA with gold except impress your girlfriend.
Gold runs on a rollercoaster, its reputation now trashed from years of manipulation.
Gold will run on euphoria but it takes a long time to build up.
Once the euphoria gets going (no different to tulip bulbs or nickel) once up and running, look out! Because the rug will be pulled out from under your feet.
Gold a store of value? Lmfao!
Sideways for ten years is certainly not my idea of wealth preservation.
Anyway uncertainty drives Gold, not inflation.
Of course historically there have been times of uncertainty and inflation pressures where Gold has done well.
Maybe the closer we get to 2024 national elections uncertainty levels might be elevated again enough for a Gold bull market? Maybe?
Anyway uncertainty drives Gold, not inflation.
Of course historically there have been times of uncertainty and inflation pressures where Gold has done well.
Maybe the closer we get to 2024 national elections uncertainty levels might be elevated again enough for a Gold bull market? Maybe?
Most assets go from oversold to overbought. Your job is not to be one of the FOMO bunch, but to be a savvy trader/investor by figuring out when to be in an asset market and when to move to cash. You made an observation that Gold hasn't done shit in last ten years, how about this comparison, since year 2000, Gold's gone up x6.77 and SPX gone up x2.57, therefore looking at this example in hindsight, where would you have preferred to park your wealth?
"You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done" - K. Rogers
as a savvy trader you better dump gold as you're still break even inflation adjusted if you bought 15 years ago and insanely down money if you bought 10 years ago. Long gold has been one of the biggest wealth killers of the decadeMost assets go from oversold to overbought. Your job is not to be one of the FOMO bunch, but to be a savvy trader/investor by figuring out when to be in an asset market and when to move to cash. You made an observation that Gold hasn't done shit in last ten years, how about this comparison, since year 2000, Gold's gone up x6.77 and SPX gone up x2.57, therefore looking at this example in hindsight, where would you have preferred to park your wealth?
"You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done" - K. Rogers
My friend, you have picked a place on a big map to prove your thesis. I have a revelation here, perhaps not all roads lead to Rome. I think I answered this in my last post, if a trader makes a mistake with position opening level, then use a stop and find a better entry level. It hasn’t moved in 10 years, but it moved in 5 years and 15 years and 20 years. Macro economics is a complex matter and if one decides to go with long term investment strategies then needs to read various analysis written by folks that actually understand what the heck they are talking about. Some FOMOs decide to go long stocks at peak levels and then sit on multi year drawdowns and after 5 years say the same thing that you said about Gold - I haven’t made any money in stocks.
If that is your argument, Bitcoin would have been the best bet overall. It went from a sub 100$ asset to an over 60k$ asset and you would have profited in a way that allowed you to retire in 2017.
You could have traded any asset back and forth and made money this way but you're cherry picking. Any investor who ditched gold for the S&P would have lost less/made more during the last 10 years.
All I need to do is looking at a chart of the ratio between the S&P and GLD (which I'm posting for the second time already):
Real estate in gold:
S&P vs. home prices on the other hand:
So the reality is: If you're not a finance professional aka. work with money or in trading, you probably should not trade but invest. And by putting a portion of your monthly income into an equity index aka dollar cost averaging will always do much more for you. Stock indices on average always go up due to survivorship bias and general economic growth.
Commodities always go down, because on average they are replaced by other stuff and not needed anymore.
I'm sure there will be the argument that there are recessions and oil and gas are at peak prices. Yes, that is true but over the period that a human being is able to work and save - let's say 40 years - these are the exception to the rule.
And with regards to the commodity issue: Remember whale oil? No? Me neither but it was one of the most important commodities from the 1800s to the 1900s. It rallied 50 years and then it crashed 50 years and you were either lucky to be on the frontside of the move or you lost it all.
I know that the gold bugs see their precious metal as the be all/end all but for the most part their arguments are just copium pulled out of their own ass without facts undermining them. All that "gold has always been an inflation hedge, gold has been a commodity for thousands of years, yada, yada, yada..."
If you look at the facts you can see it's all just bullshit. We're not living in hyperinflating Weimar Republic and we don't have the gold standard anymore.
Do I say gold will never go up again? Definitely not. If there is a supply/demand shock where either more gold is bought or miners going bankrupt and the output is down vs equal demand, gold will go up and I'm going to trade that. But I trade it the same way I trade gas, crypto, warrants, bonds, options, forwards and other stuff I have edge in.
Gold has not performed as an investment and there is simply no way to deny it, no matter how much anyone tries to berate me with "careful analysis written by folks that actually understand what the heck they are talking about"
I trade my own money for a living and I do my own analysis, period.
By the way: The best inflation hedge is cash, because if interest goes up, all other asset classes that are sensitive to interest rates (commodities, stocks, real estate) crash. If you're scared about inflation, buy government bonds
Now do that analysis when Gold is in a downtrend - like SPX was after 2000.Most assets go from oversold to overbought. Your job is not to be one of the FOMO bunch, but to be a savvy trader/investor by figuring out when to be in an asset market and when to move to cash. You made an observation that Gold hasn't done shit in last ten years, how about this comparison, since year 2000, Gold's gone up x6.77 and SPX gone up x2.57, therefore looking at this example in hindsight, where would you have preferred to park your wealth?
"You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done" - K. Rogers
It seems you have to know when to slice the data to fit the narrative.