Trading is a game. Much like poker, there is lots of bluffing going on. :$)
Why I won't trade patterns
- Thread starter ProfitTakgFool
- Start date
Steve,
I can assure you this is not a martingale strategy. I do use a position sizing strategy but under no circumstances is it a classic martingale. I won't go into great depth on this topic at this time but when I find the time to post an example I think you will better understand what I'm doing, why, and how I manage risk. It is very possible I could blow my account up with my method, <b>if</b> I let that happen.
I can assure you this is not a martingale strategy. I do use a position sizing strategy but under no circumstances is it a classic martingale. I won't go into great depth on this topic at this time but when I find the time to post an example I think you will better understand what I'm doing, why, and how I manage risk. It is very possible I could blow my account up with my method, <b>if</b> I let that happen.
My method is part mechanical and part discretion. There is a great deal of judgment involved and I pass up on some triggers while taking others, much like some people stated they take some patterns while passing up on others.
I'm having company over tonight, otherwise I would post the example tonight but it will probably have to wait until tomorrow.
For the record, I have been using this strategy for several years and it's treated me very well. I have taken some hits but that's all the natural course of trading and refining your strategy. Obviously I wasn't as good with this strategy as I am now. No matter your method, you have to learn from your mistakes and improve your method. I have an 88% win rate this year using this method so until tomorrow.......
I'm having company over tonight, otherwise I would post the example tonight but it will probably have to wait until tomorrow.
For the record, I have been using this strategy for several years and it's treated me very well. I have taken some hits but that's all the natural course of trading and refining your strategy. Obviously I wasn't as good with this strategy as I am now. No matter your method, you have to learn from your mistakes and improve your method. I have an 88% win rate this year using this method so until tomorrow.......
CD23, please do explain. Who doesn't understand what and why is the thread so sad?
I have to admit I don't understand the comment either.
It seems to me that as long as there are thoughtful comments on both sides, that people can learn from the dialogue and decide for themselves what to try going forward.
By the way PTF, while I don't endorse your method, there is a way you could reduce your risk exposure significantly. That would be to shoot for much larger profits, and orient yourself to the longer term hold period. If we are talking about the ES market, it is very doable. looking at your current example, I would be holding for a minimum scale out of 3 points and keeping runners in place for 5, 7 and 10 point wins (holding a b/e stop after the first profit is booked). Otherwise (and it is just my opinion) your per trade risk/reward is excessive (too much for me anyway).
See you all later
Steve
It seems to me that as long as there are thoughtful comments on both sides, that people can learn from the dialogue and decide for themselves what to try going forward.
By the way PTF, while I don't endorse your method, there is a way you could reduce your risk exposure significantly. That would be to shoot for much larger profits, and orient yourself to the longer term hold period. If we are talking about the ES market, it is very doable. looking at your current example, I would be holding for a minimum scale out of 3 points and keeping runners in place for 5, 7 and 10 point wins (holding a b/e stop after the first profit is booked). Otherwise (and it is just my opinion) your per trade risk/reward is excessive (too much for me anyway).
See you all later
Steve
That's not a bullish pennant. I would never buy a pennant down there. As for the short side...not much room for losses. Your stop should be fairly obvious.
As for patterns. I've never seen a lot of problems. I typically dont play them, however I would if the right opportunity arises.
Take SOLF for example.
As for patterns. I've never seen a lot of problems. I typically dont play them, however I would if the right opportunity arises.
Take SOLF for example.
I absolutely agree with you, the hypothetical you describe must be dealt with. The fact is that this scenario will be faced by a Martingale type trader, and sooner rather than later.
The OP seems to have said that three re-entries is his limit and that he will stop himself out after that.
Regardless, this type of strategy would take iron discipline and the ability to sit out when necessary.
How do you know when it's necessary? Good question. You would always be tempted to believe that, after getting your leg-in stopped out after 3 legs, 3 times in one day, that the 4th one would be the one that acts right.
I am interested in the statistical side of this and the identification of price events that are normally distributed and the subsequent fading of the tails.
Steve, I have to say... it's the kinder gentler steve46 we are seeing around here these days
