Why I Shorted MRK: The Math $1Trillion

Is Merck a short Here?

  • Yes, this is a short, clear as day, this is a potent downside catalyst

    Votes: 23 39.0%

  • Yes, shorted also, was a great trade

    Votes: 6 10.2%

  • Not ashort, Dividend is worth the risk, I say Long

    Votes: 8 13.6%

  • This is not a short, Normal Overreaction today

    Votes: 7 11.9%

  • I am staying on the sidelines, no bias long or short

    Votes: 9 15.3%

  • I would not be Greedy and take profits Monday morning

    Votes: 6 10.2%
  • Total voters
    59
If you believe in the wisdom of the marketplace as evidenced by the implieds in the MRK options, mrk has a slim to none chance of ever getting to 30 in 30-40 days. I have to put on this spread holding my nose. Hope it works.
 
Quote from GATrader:

If you believe in the wisdom of the marketplace as evidenced by the implieds in the MRK options, mrk has a slim to none chance of ever getting to 30 in 30-40 days. I have to put on this spread holding my nose. Hope it works.
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Which spread?
 
As I posted earlier in the thread near the start, this was considered an "Easy" short just like GM was...if ya know what I mean. In that, every hedge fund piled in and lost!

The sell off was overdone and this bounce is not surprising to me. 28.50 would not surprise me. :cool:
 
Quote from TorontoTrader2:

As I posted earlier in the thread near the start, this was considered an "Easy" short just like GM was...if ya know what I mean. In that, every hedge fund piled in and lost!

The sell off was overdone and this bounce is not surprising to me. 28.50 would not surprise me. :cool:
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This bounce was on much less vol than the 3 downside days. There is a difference between MRK and GM . Before Friday's verdict, less than 1% of the MRK 2.2 billion share float was short. MRK has about 4X the float of GM. At the time of the GM squeeze, there was not a normal short position in the stock, a great deal of shorts were playing a hedge with their bond positions so if it wasn't for the bond play, one could argue the move would not have been so aggressive. Also, you could not short GM at the time because of the float being soaked up on the short side.

Everyone is long MRK! The market will trade in the direction where the most can lose their shirt. Here, it is not even debatable that most of the street are long this stock. Going long MRK is not a contrarian play. Shorting in itself is contrarian to some degree. Being contrarian for contrarian sake is a quick way to the poor house. Sometimes, it is the simple, easy, no-brainer, no quant analysis, no Elliott Wave analysis trades that will coin for you the best.
 
Quote from Sam123:

It’s ridiculous to you because you believe that Big Government, and a legal system hostile to corporations is better for society than corporations producing innovation in goods and services that improve society as a whole.
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So you think that Bush is a poor powerless weakling who cannot do anything to change the "liberals" in power? Get real, the media and corporations are in his back pocket. Oil and the rest.


p.s. how the "easy" shorts doing on MRK?
 
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