why I just loaded June calls on the silver train

Wait....did i miss something?

Quote from newguy05:

Shut the fuck up loser. and if the expectation is a gap/rubberband you dont want to cap the reward.


I did the diagonal spread instead, lost $1100 profit today for a $2200 max less risk. But now i am capped and will need to exit if it keeps going up as delta between the 2 legs are getting very close.
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You called me a fucking loser. I said do a vertical and you said you don't want the trade capped. Then you capped it yourself lol?!?!?!

Alright....i'm done with ET for tonight. This is just too much.
 
Quote from arbprofit2:

Thanks for posting mksummny. I took the same trade, but still holding.
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Smartest guy in the room here. It's worth the additional risk. Excellent job holding. Market has potential for about 4-5 green days. You're at day 2. Latest guys should push it further. Hope this thing gaps huge for you tomorrow. :)
 
Quote from mksummny:

I played the June calls to assume a little less risk but still be exposed to the set up I thought would happen. I exited the position on 2 trades as well as entered the position on 2 trades. Total profit was about 32%. One reason I exited the trade because the bounce happened just like I had planned. I had to play whatever that looked like. It just so happened the bounce upon the exit was 6% at the open. I would have liked it to be 10% but that was not the case.

The point being is
I traded my plan for entry
I exited the trade just like I had planned
I was rewarded for the effort

I would do it again, with a stock or a commodity. It is a highly profitable setup.
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Ok. I did a similar trade but entered a bit worse and exited a bit better, on less size. Made a profit but nothing notable, probably not worth the risk in the trade. Silver was even weaker then expected, and there was very little window of opportunity to get in near the lows around $33. Hanging on in a bear market to squeeze maximum potential out of rebounds is not easy. My plan was to average in at 32-33 with another slug of calls but I didn't get them. IV crush didn't help either.

Anyway, just goes to show it's hard to make money buying dips in a bear market, even when you are correct. Just takes too much balls and risk to do the right thing (i.e. double up on even more extreme weakness, then hold on 2-3 days after the low to maximise gains), and even being off by 1 day in timing can cap your profit potential significantly.

I suspect the easier play will be getting bearish on rallies. More forgiving on timing errors, more profit potential, less risk etc.
 
Quote from ForexForex:

Big mistake ..... the market always gives participants a 2nd chance to get out after the big peak - today was that day. Two days ago I posted this SLV chart to the end of 2011. As you can we are heading to the $18.00 range during the next few months, plus IV will slowly dwindle.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3177941#post3177941 - The 2nd chance to get out is clearly visible, it's at the 30ish mark just inside the green.

dddd.png


The market doesn't like bag holders.
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Wow you completely blew it. +1.51%. For calling him out like you did, you sure look fucking stupid.

Quote from athlonmank8:

Smartest guy in the room here. It's worth the additional risk. Excellent job holding. Market has potential for about 4-5 green days. You're at day 2. Latest guys should push it further. Hope this thing gaps huge for you tomorrow. :)
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Silver is at ~38

$20 was a huge psychological level that when broke ushered in a new paradigm in the trading structure of this market. look back at threads, people were calling a top at $24 which at the time represented an already impressing 40% move from $17 which was the average price for a long time.

there is no fundamental reason for silver to ever trade below ~25 ever again, i doubt the $32 support level will ever be broken. the run up to 49.50 was certainly extraordinary in speed but a correction to these level was always in the cards for the past month.. look at the charts.. $38 was "bubble territory" to observers 1 month ago and it appears the market is finding support already.

years ago, i scoffed at the idea of accumulating physical silver at $12 with preconceived notions of it being an inferior metal, but frankly now it is certainly on the radar of thousands if not tens of thousands more traders and investors around the world. i may not have been buying silver eagles at $50 but alot of people are drooling at the idea of picking these coins up any cheaper than these levels. the real fantasy is Silver OZ below $25.. good luck
 
Quote from mksummny:

You can read charts until your blue in the face. I have learned through my 13 years that when the trader intuition is alarming you that you have seen this before many times to go with it and play the percentage in your favor. The 3 day margin rule is one of my favorite setups. Works 80% of the time with a large 4th day gap.
You can use it if you want. Consider it a freebie.
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This is what pissed me off. The sad part is that you had no precise reason to get in the trade. You had no good reason to get out of the trade either.

But then you're nice enough to give us permission to use your strategy like your some arrogant badass?

This trade kept going and you had ZERO reason to exit it yesterday. You realized 1*R. Now IF the strategy does net 80% winners then hey, you're cool. But judging by the way you traded it.....you're not even going to get CLOSE to that because you still have things to learn and you're ruining the edge.
 
The sad part is that the strategy is actually a good strategy. I certainly shouldn't have been so hard on ya. Your timing was excellent and I should really give you credit for that. You certainly probably do well with this strategy. I use something somewhat similar with exceptional results.

All i'm saying is that you're not using it to it's full potential. Once you do...then you can talk all you want because you earned it :p
 
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