why I just loaded June calls on the silver train

Quote from newguy05:

Take it easy with your after the fact analysis. Where was your post when slv was at 48? 46? 44? .... oh that's right you were too busy making bullshit posts about obama and osama.

It sure is "common sense" calling a top from 4 days ago, after slv drops 30%..
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That is correct.
 
Quote from ForexForex:

Shagi ..... Why didn't you comment on this May 29th thread if you knew silver was going to crash? Those $0.25 puts are now $37.00.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=219693

Instead you come out of the woodwork after the big move and rationalize it in hindsight, as if it could have been expected.
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Of-course it was expected did you think it was going to $60?

There really is no hindsight - I'm just not lazy about my work and I comment when I wish to do so.
 
Quote from heech:

I don't think there's any point in debating this... Not when we can look at it in a quantative way.

Even as silver was peaking at $48, implied vola on silver was as 60%. In daily terms, that means a 4% move in one day is a 1-sigma move. So, the subsequent 10% down days are about a 2.5 sigma move. That means they're unlikely, but in my opinion, hardly a black swan.... The market was anticipating a move almost this large.

On the other hand, in Feb (when crude soared $9/10% in one day after Libya/Egypt instability)... Implied vola was 30% the day prior. That was a 5-sigma move, and does the term "black swan" more justice. In fact, crude vola was down in the 30% range yesterday too.... So today's sell off is another 4+ sigma move.
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By the way... a 2.5 sigma daily move happens approximately twice a year. That's what happened with silver, and is not a black swan.

A 5 sigma daily move (assuming normal distribution) happens approximately once every 10,000 years... now that's a black swan.
 
SLV 28 by tuesday. Kinda hang there for a couple months.

Should have bought those May 46 puts, last week.

Stay away.

EDIT: Eventually, we're headed back down to 18. Aug 09 to present is nothing but a lie, folks.
 
Look at ZSL, up nearly 100% in only a week!!!!

Thats pretty crazy, now seeing Silver drop as hard as it did, it can rally really hard as well, however this time $50 might be out of question, if it were to get to $50 or even $60 or $70 how long would it be able to hold those levels? Again this was a given that a drop like this was going to occur, however I did not expect such a drop so quick, I thought the 40% correction like I predicted on April 29th would have come a lot later and would have taken a lot longer, weeks for that matter not 4 days!

Im thinking of buying some AGQ when silver gets down to around $30-$32!
 
Another huge reason for the drop in Silver was the larger margin requirements, that being the case its going to be a lot harder to drive the price back to $50+
 
This was not meant to be a pissing match between longs and shorts. I just wanted to catalog my entry and exit. It was also meant to teach the newbs on the consistency of the 3 day margin phenomenon that I have seen so many times. Today still could end up RED but over the weekend and Monday is the really good bounce day imo.
 
Quote from mksummny:

This was not meant to be a pissing match between longs and shorts. I just wanted to catalog my entry and exit. It was also meant to teach the newbs on the consistency of the 3 day margin phenomenon that I have seen so many times. Today still could end up RED but over the weekend and Monday is the really good bounce day imo.
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Aren't they increasing margins again on Monday?
 
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