Why I faded Fridays close.. again

Was going to post a pm I sent that predicted exact highs and lows of all index futs but though nah ... w(ho)tf would be stupid enough to believe that.
 
SunTrader said:
Was going to post a pm I sent that predicted exact highs and lows of all index futs but though nah ... w(ho)tf would be stupid enough to believe that.
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You come across as a forum cop - watching what everyone else posts and then trying to find a fault by that or come with some clever disagreement. Quite often you miss the mark as well.

It's not a good look.

Pekelo actually did say he thought the same pattern would repeat itself in RTH, so I don't see the problem here.
 
This is how you predict:
Pekelo said:
" We gonna hit 3800, from where we bounce back 50-70 points. Then continue upward to 3950ish, then drop back until we hit the lower BB on the daily."

This already happened overnight but I think will get repeated in RTH too.
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It did. High was 3796, then it dropped to 3741, a 55 pts drop before the bounce.
 
Pekelo said:
This is how you predict:


It did. High was 3796, then it dropped to 3741, a 55 pts drop before the bounce.
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Good call so far. Remains to be seen about 3950, though.

In my view, 3800 should be a major resistance level if anyone is interested in selling this rally, so I would think some caution is warranted for the long side here as evidenced by this choppy action around here which is depleting retail trader's account one stop at a time.
 
Concinnity said:
Just out of curiosity do you factor in where the move generated from related to the individual chart you're trading on how to use overbought conditions?

This is just a general question, not necessarily talking about your current trade. I've just noticed that overbought coming from a certain place on the chart can be extremely bearish and you're able to do a strategy where you short before overbought is finished. However, if overbought starts to generate at another place on the chart, it's actually an extremely bullish thing and not only do you generally not want to short it, you actually want to look long. Only once overbought stops and you get a sell signal, than is it safe to short and than you look for the overbought to be retraced back to means reversion.
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First, I should say that I don't trade individual stocks. RSI indicators are my most valuable too, but not my only tool. The only charts I use regularly are trend channel charts. I almost exclusively trade index's and leveraged index's. I have 3 degree's of overbought. Overbought, moderately overbought, and just plain stupid overbought. Ditto for oversold. The Dow call I made was because treasuries are in stupid oversold conditions and the crowded dollar trade. Looking for that trade too correct. Ideally I look for moderately to stupid overbought or oversold conditions, playing the market ups and downs. It's a simplified trading method that works very well for me. I would say I'm more of a technical trader and seek those trades that have a high probability of success.
 
KCalhoun said:
SQQQ and uvxy looked particularly attractive at lod pricing. So I bought.
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%%
I did something like that today on SDS, SPXU\ cut a loss on that +did better on XLK,TQQQ/UPRO, but those were short term trades.
SDS did perk up last half hour but i seldom day trade that period; even though i dont have a rule against it....................................................................
 
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