Why I don't short

Steve Ladd said:
I am an intermediate-term trend follower. Some call it position trading. I don’t short-sell because studies show that shorting adds approximately zero to a trend-following system. This is because 1) it runs counter to the overall up-trend of markets, 2) you don't reap dividends, and 3) the borrowing incurs a cost. Also shorting opportunities usually come during bear markets, at which times my focus has to be on avoiding bull traps and sensing for the bottom. If I was shorting as well the extra analysis load would distract me.
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Members from eliteinvester.com
also don't short.
They just buy and buy and buy and buy
 
Too costly to short stocks, just more cost effective to sell index futures and hedge if timing was wrong. I only have 5% of stocks bought from 2009, dividends percentage wise wasn't making sense and hedging stocks with all recent sell signals to make pennies on dividends didn't add up. Still have oil company stocks with good dividends, although have started trying to find crude oil highs.
 
Steve Ladd said:
I don’t short-sell because studies show that shorting adds approximately zero to a trend-following system.
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Are these the same studies that show how you can regain 20/20 sight with one simple trick?

You know...a harvard professor got fired because he revealed the secret and banks hate it
 
Steve Ladd said:
Trend Following In Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Backtest, PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS, January 2, 2016 and Trend Following in Focus, QR Capital Management, LLC, September 2018
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Not significant at all.
The only way to properly evaluate a trend following strategy is to measure it against autocorrelation in the specific assets.

-> Asset autocorrelated -> You don't make money -> strategy sucks
-> Asset not autocorrelated -> you don't make money - > market selection sucks

Go ahead and find an asset that has a steady downtrend and is autocorrelated. Test a short only approach and you will find that you will make a profit.

Your assumptions are way to simplistic since you only cover a specific scenario
 
Steve Ladd said:
I am an intermediate-term trend follower. Some call it position trading. I don’t short-sell because studies show that shorting adds approximately zero to a trend-following system. This is because 1) it runs counter to the overall up-trend of markets, 2) you don't reap dividends, and 3) the borrowing incurs a cost. Also shorting opportunities usually come during bear markets, at which times my focus has to be on avoiding bull traps and sensing for the bottom.
If I was shorting as well the extra analysis load would distract me.
More...
%%
WHEN something is true 80% or 93%+/ of the time , simply means many should avoid it but not all may avoid it......... Actually some inverse ETFs have paid dividends,[for sure] like TZA , in the past. And there are some key differences between short profit + inverse ETF profit.

BUT like IBD founder notes \never buy something for the dividend. Amen/LOL+ true.
[2] So polar bear trends[rubber band moves] may not be as profitable, so few funds do well, but some do.
[3]I almost never trade inverse, same size[distraction] ,as longs\so few commercial funds do well shorting.
[4] Repeating pattern, as IBD noted \NEVER buy for dividend/LOL. NOT sure any inverse ETF even pays a dividend now?:caution::caution:
 
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